I wrote up the following column for my page and I want to post it here to see what you guys think. I would love to get your thoughts on this.
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Puck or No Puck?
For hockey handicappers, a common decision is whether to play a game on the moneyline or with the half puck. Last year, I seemed to make the right decision frequently. I played a lot of games at +1/2 that tied and I played very few games at -1/2 that tied. This year has been a different story. Though I have done well in general playing games at -1/2, my results when choosing between moneyline dogs and the +1/2 have been pitiful.
I think a lot of it depends on if you naturally see value in victories or lines. I generally look for value in lines and I almost always bet underdogs. Therefore, I get a higher line playing -1/2 when betting a fave and when playing the moneyline on a dog, so I usually take it. Over time, it is guaranteed to cost me victories, but the wins I do get will pay off better. Gamblers who value victory more than price are likely to play the moneyline on faves and take the half puck when betting dogs.
I almost never play moneyline favorites in hockey and when I do it is always at an extremely small price. Therefore the bulk of my decisions come from underdogs.
When deciding whether to play the moneyline or the +1/2 on an underdog, I first to a simple mathematical analysis. I will take todays play as an example. The best lines I could find on my play were +1/2 +150 at Game Day and PK +220 at Wagerstreet. With a 0.70 unit difference, that means a win for Florida must be 2.14 times more likely than a tie for it to be worthwhile to play the moneyline.
Looking at previous results, I see Florida with 3 road wins and 2 road ties. Overall they have 7 wins and 2 ties. On the other side, Carolina has 8 home losses and just 2 ties. Overall they have 15 losses with 4 ties. Lets break down how much more likely a Florida win (and Carolina loss) is than a tie:
FLA ROAD: 1.5 times more likely
FLA OVERALL: 3.5 times more likely
CAR HOME: 4.0 times more likely
CAR OVERALL: 3.75 times more likely
It was established earlier that the moneyline was the play as long as I felt a win was at least 2.14 times more likely than a tie. Looking at these numbers, that seems like a solid play, with the caveat that Floridas road results only make the picture a bit more murky.
Hockey is a streaky sport, so what about recent results? Carolina has just one tie in thier last 10, while Florida has none. Four of Carolinas last 10 were at home, and they tied none of those. Five of Floridas last ten were on the road. Based on recent results, we should not expect a tie. That is, of course, unless you believe that these two teams are *due* to tie because they have played almost no ties lately.
Since I am not a big believer in the *due* theory, I chose the moneyline as the better bet. Since I have been so bad in my choices this year, however, I bet the +1/2 +150 today just to be safe.
My question to hockey handicappers is, how do you decide? Do you make it an arbitrary decision based on feel or do you do any kind of analysis similar to what I described above. This year I have been baffled by this problem so I want to get input from other hockey players as to how they go about tackling this.
One final comment is that I am considering just playing both ways for half my money on each play. That really goes against the spirit of the gambler, but perhaps it would be the less stressful alternative.
**********
Puck or No Puck?
For hockey handicappers, a common decision is whether to play a game on the moneyline or with the half puck. Last year, I seemed to make the right decision frequently. I played a lot of games at +1/2 that tied and I played very few games at -1/2 that tied. This year has been a different story. Though I have done well in general playing games at -1/2, my results when choosing between moneyline dogs and the +1/2 have been pitiful.
I think a lot of it depends on if you naturally see value in victories or lines. I generally look for value in lines and I almost always bet underdogs. Therefore, I get a higher line playing -1/2 when betting a fave and when playing the moneyline on a dog, so I usually take it. Over time, it is guaranteed to cost me victories, but the wins I do get will pay off better. Gamblers who value victory more than price are likely to play the moneyline on faves and take the half puck when betting dogs.
I almost never play moneyline favorites in hockey and when I do it is always at an extremely small price. Therefore the bulk of my decisions come from underdogs.
When deciding whether to play the moneyline or the +1/2 on an underdog, I first to a simple mathematical analysis. I will take todays play as an example. The best lines I could find on my play were +1/2 +150 at Game Day and PK +220 at Wagerstreet. With a 0.70 unit difference, that means a win for Florida must be 2.14 times more likely than a tie for it to be worthwhile to play the moneyline.
Looking at previous results, I see Florida with 3 road wins and 2 road ties. Overall they have 7 wins and 2 ties. On the other side, Carolina has 8 home losses and just 2 ties. Overall they have 15 losses with 4 ties. Lets break down how much more likely a Florida win (and Carolina loss) is than a tie:
FLA ROAD: 1.5 times more likely
FLA OVERALL: 3.5 times more likely
CAR HOME: 4.0 times more likely
CAR OVERALL: 3.75 times more likely
It was established earlier that the moneyline was the play as long as I felt a win was at least 2.14 times more likely than a tie. Looking at these numbers, that seems like a solid play, with the caveat that Floridas road results only make the picture a bit more murky.
Hockey is a streaky sport, so what about recent results? Carolina has just one tie in thier last 10, while Florida has none. Four of Carolinas last 10 were at home, and they tied none of those. Five of Floridas last ten were on the road. Based on recent results, we should not expect a tie. That is, of course, unless you believe that these two teams are *due* to tie because they have played almost no ties lately.
Since I am not a big believer in the *due* theory, I chose the moneyline as the better bet. Since I have been so bad in my choices this year, however, I bet the +1/2 +150 today just to be safe.
My question to hockey handicappers is, how do you decide? Do you make it an arbitrary decision based on feel or do you do any kind of analysis similar to what I described above. This year I have been baffled by this problem so I want to get input from other hockey players as to how they go about tackling this.
One final comment is that I am considering just playing both ways for half my money on each play. That really goes against the spirit of the gambler, but perhaps it would be the less stressful alternative.
