pulling on a string

[selkirk]

to come out of the economic mess, and help solve the credit crisis and debt problem faced by indivuals and corporations.

the govt. will try to make credit easier to get and debt not seem as important.

they will lower the rates, worldwide rates will head towards zero, and in many countires, regions hit zero, or below 1%.

then govt. will spend, and also flood the system with cash.

if this works then credit will become easier, and good corporations will not pay 8-14% if they can get a loan.

in this case equities will rally at least for a while.
so will resources, and high yield debt. tbills will go down.

if this does not work, then govt. debt will go up and the billions of dollars will be wasted, and the worldwide economy will sink into an economic slowdown for the history books.

believe and hoping the first option comes true....though just in case will hold 20-25% in cash in the short term.

hope the US govt. does not become protectionist, also the scale of these programs do not grow to qucikly, economic slowdown is not uncommon.

however spending such a large sum that will lead to increased taxes and higher debts should be a concern.

finally do not pass out handouts so easily.

heard Cramer on CNBC while channel surfing, was a clip from a monring show, and he stated the US govt. should spend billions of dollars and give Americans homes. ....wow.... I mean...inflation


also a plan that was talked about becoming law, not sure if it has, would see relief for someone who would be 3 payment behind on their mortgage

now helping out the general populaiton is fine, espcecially more long term, ie taxes, however how does it help if you give one neighbour help for missing three payments, and the other man/women who have made their payments nothing. (they may also be having a tough go, but they get nothing.....

these are two ideas should be shot down.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Kirk -Might rename thread "pushing on a string"

See it bout the same myself--lots of traps out there but lots of money to made in future especially especially for those with lots of time before retirement.

This one- being at the ripe old age of 58 will be looking more to conserve than attack.

My future will look something like --
10-15 % real estate
and a split of 50/50 of fixed rate and equities with the equities portfolio currently being only about 65 % invested.

They always say better to be lucky than good--and have had some good fortunes that have spared me any great losses during this economical disaster.

A combination of age-and timing for reasons that may not have been for right reasons but faired well just the same.

Did very well from aftermath of 911 to 2005 when I turned 55
--At that point decided to adjust allocations for financial objectives--which cost somewhat as bull ran till 7-07.
--Did not like what I saw in 06 elections and for right or wrong reasoning bailed on most my U.S. holdings. Remember thread here saying I felt almost like losing family member when sold stocks I'd held for years AXP-GE-and Citi group to name a few--but selling 55-54 and 40 respectively turned out to be blessing.
--Used proceeds for mostly emerging markets-shipping and resource sectors--and got lucky again.
All in all more than doubled value of stock portfolio from 02 till 07. Since then have taken brunt of this recent turmoil giving back about 25% of gains-but that figure a little misleading as stock positions have been greatly reduced so actual loss on stocks held would be more--Most of losses stem from not setting stop losses--some I couldn't because of market they are traded on--some are in my sold half when stock double group--and some I have stubbornly held onto thinking their values do not reflect price and have bought more on drop.

I can't say enough how advice from Kirk and others here has helped me. The stop loss -to let cull the bad choices and let profits run is an unbelievably valuable tool.

Kirk's consistent reminder of not trying to guage bottom but buy back small portions at a time has been of great value. I have been chomping at the bits to increase several positions but have stuck to game plan of X amount per month and been looking forward to today (12-1) as i now have new month to expand positions.

Game plan for future--
Believe there will be culling of the weak sisters and only the strong will survuve and their prices now at bargain basement prices will give signficant return in future.
I look for very tough times ahead for forseable future here--only U.S. holdings are PFE and MO and may add one or 2 but not too eager.
Will look hard at resources and shipping as resources will rebound even with anticpated deflation as will shipping. Like to study shipping myself and we got the best I ever saw on resources (Kirk) keeping us informed on that area.
Will also stay invested in emerging markets China mainly as I spend 80% of research in that area.
Will look at companies that are main stay for their population rather than those whose profits come from exporting.
Reasons for liking China is pretty basic--at some point in time the ponsi sceme of printing more money to cover debt will end'
They are nation of savers--consumers there have little debt--country is in good financial shape aside from debt they hold on U.S.--but gives them lots of leverage on keeping free trade open on their terms.

enough

 

[Woodson]

Thanks as always for the information guys.

 

[selkirk]

Woodson thanks for reading, find during bear markets interest drops sharply in equities/bonds, ect. in 1999 our local shareclub had over 30 people and some meetings 50. today we have around 8.


DTB correct, thought that was the title, pushing on a string. seems the news is not getting much better.

asset mix good, probably better than mine; used to be much more in equtiy, however in the past few months/most of 2008 have added to my fixed income.

some preferred and bond yields look just as good as equities. mean if I can get 8-12% not bad.

real estate is a good investment overall, though do not count mine in my wealth. do not have any income properties and own property with lumber, way to volatile to predict. one year woth a small fortune, this year close to zero.

by the way looking at a few china names, will add them to your China thread, believe last time added a name it went down sharply :shrug:


thanks
selkirk