i remember last year either before thanksgiving or christmas, someone (nolan, i think) wrote an article about betting the under on all nba games on the eve of a holiday because everyone is thinking about getting home, etc. and so tendency to let down exists such that under is more likely than not to hit. i followed this advice last year and won (again, can't remember if t'giving or xmas but think xmas). anyone else remember this? any thoughts for the games on dec. 23 and whether this should be an angle to consider?
q re: holiday eve/nba totals (nolan?)
- Thread starter h3
- Start date
i'm starting to think it was the night before t'giving but i just can't remember. i don't remember exactly what i won but i recall the winning percentage being around 75%. i should say that i never (well almost never) bet nba unless i play some angle like this where i'll bet every game.
Pretty sure it was the day after a holiday because they'd already been home, had a few drinks, loads of food etc.
This angle applies to the DAY AFTER two major events -- Christmas Day and the Super Bowl.
Players either go home or do get togethers with family/freinds. Drinking is common. Teams are out of synch in the next game immediately after the break. The result is usually a poor shooting night by both teams and sluggish performance.
Of course, I am exagerrating a bit here -- after all, these are pro athletes. But the angle does appear to have some merit based on the numbers over the years.
BTW, Thanksgiving has not proven to be an influential holiday. I suspect it is still early in the season and players and teams are motivated to get back and play the games. By late December and late January -- however, fatigue starts to become a factor. Combined with a few off days, some partying, and drinking, that hurts the numbers (offenses).
The best holiday DAY AFTER angle is the Super Bowl. Every athlete watches this game. The game also runs late at night (especially on the East Coast). And, the players often party and drink together. It's not a family holiday, which means there's greater chance for distractions. If they play a game THE NEXT DAY, expect the scoring to decline.
I'll try to dig up the numbers if I can locate them.
Nolan Dalla
Players either go home or do get togethers with family/freinds. Drinking is common. Teams are out of synch in the next game immediately after the break. The result is usually a poor shooting night by both teams and sluggish performance.
Of course, I am exagerrating a bit here -- after all, these are pro athletes. But the angle does appear to have some merit based on the numbers over the years.
BTW, Thanksgiving has not proven to be an influential holiday. I suspect it is still early in the season and players and teams are motivated to get back and play the games. By late December and late January -- however, fatigue starts to become a factor. Combined with a few off days, some partying, and drinking, that hurts the numbers (offenses).
The best holiday DAY AFTER angle is the Super Bowl. Every athlete watches this game. The game also runs late at night (especially on the East Coast). And, the players often party and drink together. It's not a family holiday, which means there's greater chance for distractions. If they play a game THE NEXT DAY, expect the scoring to decline.
I'll try to dig up the numbers if I can locate them.
Nolan Dalla
Did try that angle last year after the Super Bowl. The outcome with local lines if I remember correctly was a 1 game loss minus the juice. It was a shot but didn't produce a plus last year. Last year was the only time I tried it.
Bob
Bob
thanks for the reply, nolan. i did play this angle last year after i read about it here and won. must have been day after xmas.
