Q: Why can't FSU cover?

[TheShrimp]

A: Because bettors are fickle.

They were a marginal 3-4 ATS before they beat Duke at home. They obviously covered that game bringing them to 4-4 ATS. They're 1-8 ATS since the Duke upset, and that one cover was against UNC. Why UNC (3-13 ATS) can't cover is a whole other can of worms.

When a crap-tacular team like FSU pulls a big upset like that, I like to look to fade them often in the following weeks.

On the other hand, Duke was 5-7 ATS before and including the FSU game. they're 6-4 since (a decent turnaround). Kansas has been on an ATS tear since losing to UCLA, whereas UCLA has been a pedestrian 3-4 ATS since (though they were pretty poor ATS before that game).

MD was 9-3 ATS after losing at home to FSU last year.

I know these are just a couple of hand-picked examples of big upsets, but there's a simple logic behind it too. I suppose the lesson is don't get suckered by a dog that has its day, and don't get too far away from the favorite just because they lost a game that they shouldn't have.

Any counter-point or supporting examples (esp. outside the ACC) would be welcomed.

TheShrimp

 

[THUNDER]

RPI IS EQUATED IN LINES- OBVIOSLEY THE DUKE UPSET WAS GIVEN CONSIDERABLE VALUE RPI WISE ALMOST 5.5 POINTS WHEN IT WAS TO HIGH IN THE FIRST PLACE BEFORE THE UPSET.HOPE THIS HELPS.

 

[THUNDER]

THE SAME WITH DUKE THERE RPI WAS LOWERED. THUS LINES WERE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THEM.

 

[nighthorse]

the earlier in the year the craptacular upset occurs (like FSU v. DUKE), the more effect it has on the rpi, because there's less data for that one additional game to influence. Kinda like when some noname is the baseball batting leader in April.....time eventually balances it all out. But in the meantime, you can take advantage. Another one of basic capping rules to add to one's book.