Qatar Masters

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

George Coetzee to beat Branden Grace +100 @ Bet365 and Paddy Power
Small play on just one 1st round matchup. Coetzee did finish behind Grace last week, but he hadn't been behind him all week until Sunday. In fact, that is common trend in this matchup: Coetzee has a 10-6 h2h lead over Grace in rd1 over the last 12 months outside South Africa, which is strongly reversed in rd2, even more strongly reversed again in rd3 (9-1 in Coetzee's favour) and then reversed once more in rd4. With Coetzee having finished ahead of his compatriot when they both made their debuts last year and the course favouring those with extra length off the tee, there should be some value in taking the underdog in this rd1 matchup.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Martin Kaymer(12/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(20/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(40/1) e.w.
- - Two Desert Rats, and the tag-along for whom I have always, always had high expectations. IMO, all three seem to be clearly tracking in the right direction for seasons far superior to 2012. With explanations for the weak course form of Kaymer and Casey possibly being rooted in their victories immediately prior to this event, I guess I have my ideas of who looks a good match for an early season visit to the winner?s enclosure here, while others have their ideas . . . I don?t like Casey?s pairing with Monty, but you can?t have everything, and maybe he makes lemonade out of lemons.

David Howell(80/1) e.w.
- - http://www.sport360.com/article/dubai-based-howell-taking-positives-abu-dhabi-near-miss

David Howell(80/1) e.w. in Qatar
- - I was pumped last week when Howler took my 200/1 e.w. cash all the way to the lead on Sunday, and I?ll be back on board this week . . . A good early season reminder is that you can sometimes find a rich source of ANGLES and INFORMATION by going back and looking at various forum discussions from prior years. In doing so at another forum, I came across this nugget: "David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1 . . . David Howell is now based in Dubai in the winter and will be well acclimatised. Admittedly he is not the force he was but he has a great long term record in Qatar with five top ten finishes from twelve starts including last year when 5th. His five year exemption for winning the PGA Championship runs out this year so he has to improve his golf. Although he has gotten off to a poor start this year he still has the ability to bounce back with a top ten finish. He may have some emotional thoughts about Qatar this week as I believe it may have been one of the last events his Mum saw him play before she sadly died last year." Of course, he proceeded to miss the cut last year.

Steve Webster(125/1) e.w.
- - Noted last year on a different forum: "One other thought springs to mind . . . We often talk about golfer being inspired by fellow countrymen winning - a Keith Elliotesque fact that I often look out for - French golfers notoriously hunt in packs and we've had the Irsih factor the last coiple of years . . . With Rock winning last week (2012), that may inspire Finch in the way that we had a Ferrie, Slattery and Lewis run last year when Westwood and Donald wee fighting out the world No 1 and 2 battle. There may be nothing in it as the English a very un-passionate nation at the best of times but I thought it was worth mentioning within a thinking man's thread like this? . . . I belive Donaldson mentioned an inspirational link to Rock in his post-tournament comments last week, but my connection to a compatriot was immediately directed to Webster, who was already on my desert swing radar last week. And news this week that the rough at this long and windswept venue is not as penal as some years, and said wind is forecast to be unusually light this year, are IMO definite aids to Webster?s prospects.

GL

 

[Whalers Rule]

one unit ew

Parry 250-1

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes and Paddy Power]
Hanson at plus-odds is normally a good vaue bet in any European Tour matchup. He has six top-25 finishes in his last seven starts, and that includes two wins, and he hasn't missed a cut since June. He has finished ahead of Stenson in six of their last seven common events and he finished 2nd in this event last year. At 23rd on the leaderboard, he is too far back to match that performance. but with a record of shooting 70 or better in the final round in each of his last eight events, he should certainly improve on his current position.

Justin Rose to beat Louis Oosthuizen +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]
Two players moving in opposite directions on the leaderboard and maybe that is not a surprise given Rose's week last week, but every time that he fell down the leaderboard in rd3 last year, he always shot a sub-par score in rd4 and finished the final round in a higher position than a day earlier. That ability to perform in the final round even when he has not had a great week is evidenced by a dominant h2h record against Oosthuizen: since the start of the 2011 season, Rose leads Oosthuizen 14-1-1 h2h in the final round.