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Round 1 play (2pts):
David Howell to beat Darren Fichardt -110 @ 5Dimes
With just 3 cuts missed in his last 37 events, dating back to September 2012, Howell is a good player to side with in matchups. He has shown decent form already this season and has five top-10 finishes on this course in his last ten visits, so he can be backed to beat Fichardt who is a former winner 11 years ago, but has more recently missed three cuts in the last four years here.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Baldwin tb Kieffer +100; Campillo tb Hahn +100]
David Howell to beat Darren Fichardt -110 @ 5Dimes
With just 3 cuts missed in his last 37 events, dating back to September 2012, Howell is a good player to side with in matchups. He has shown decent form already this season and has five top-10 finishes on this course in his last ten visits, so he can be backed to beat Fichardt who is a former winner 11 years ago, but has more recently missed three cuts in the last four years here.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Baldwin tb Kieffer +100; Campillo tb Hahn +100]
Round 2 play (2pts):
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello +105 @ Bet365
Two players near the top of the leaderboard, but it appears strange that a player in the top-50 in the World Rankings is the clear underdog against a player outside the top-100. It is not as though current form is the issue - Cabrera-Bello did finish 4th last week, but it was his first top-10 finish since October whereas Jaidee has finished in the top-10 in all four starts since the start of December. And nor is course form the issue - Jaidee has finished in the top-40 in 10 of 11 visits to Doha and finished ahead of Cabrera-Bello in three of the four times that he has played in this event.
[unofficial rd2 system play: Kieffer tb Lewis +110]
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Rafa Cabrera-Bello +105 @ Bet365
Two players near the top of the leaderboard, but it appears strange that a player in the top-50 in the World Rankings is the clear underdog against a player outside the top-100. It is not as though current form is the issue - Cabrera-Bello did finish 4th last week, but it was his first top-10 finish since October whereas Jaidee has finished in the top-10 in all four starts since the start of December. And nor is course form the issue - Jaidee has finished in the top-40 in 10 of 11 visits to Doha and finished ahead of Cabrera-Bello in three of the four times that he has played in this event.
[unofficial rd2 system play: Kieffer tb Lewis +110]
Round 3 play (2pts):
Peter Hanson to beat Francois Calmels -200 @ Tote [available generally]
I'll take these odds as value given that Hanson has played in eight common events with Calmels, involving 16 common rounds, of which Calmels shot the lower round just once. Hanson was the runner-up in this event two years ago and has enough ability to easily beat Calmels more than twice in every three occasions.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Carlsson J tb Webster -110; Hanson tb Cabrera-Bello -111; Hanson tb Coetzee -110; Wattel tb Ilonen +100]
Peter Hanson to beat Francois Calmels -200 @ Tote [available generally]
I'll take these odds as value given that Hanson has played in eight common events with Calmels, involving 16 common rounds, of which Calmels shot the lower round just once. Hanson was the runner-up in this event two years ago and has enough ability to easily beat Calmels more than twice in every three occasions.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Carlsson J tb Webster -110; Hanson tb Cabrera-Bello -111; Hanson tb Coetzee -110; Wattel tb Ilonen +100]
Round 4 play (2pts):
Simon Dyson to beat Peter Uihlein +130 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]
Both players within four shots of the lead and it is surprising to see such large odds on Dyson. He has a very good record when in such final round contention and has hit more fairways and greens than Uihlein this week.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Gallacher tb Hoey +100]
Simon Dyson to beat Peter Uihlein +130 @ Boyle Sports [available generally]
Both players within four shots of the lead and it is surprising to see such large odds on Dyson. He has a very good record when in such final round contention and has hit more fairways and greens than Uihlein this week.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Gallacher tb Hoey +100]
