Felonious Monk
Good post supported with stats. I enjoyed reading it. However, I disagree with what you are trying to conclude with it.
Felonious Monk said:
Scott you are the ultimate spin master if I ever saw one. "Especially if Carroll gets 4 weeks to prepare with his NFL caliber assistant coaching staff." I loved that line...you sound like Dr. Evil.
It is true. USC's OL and DL coaches were OL and DL coaches in the NFL last year and neither were fired. They left their NFL position job to take the same position job at USC.
Carroll has had 4 weeks to prepare for Iowa, Michigan, and OU for BCS bowl games. We know the results. Mack Brown's only accomplishment was beating a not very good Michigan squad last year.
Admit it, you're worried about Texas and you're looking for reasons as to why you should possibly hedge. Texas definitely has a much more diverse offense than USC does.
Right now I wouldn't be very confident in USC beating Texas. But Jan. 4th I will be. Right now I will predict USC to win by 15-20pts over Texas in the Rose Bowl. Similar game to the OB last year. If USC played Texas this Sat. I think the game might be 50/50 with USC slight advantage. I'll know a hell of a lot more about USC after Fresno St. and UCLA and then with bowl practices.
Texas does not have a more diverse offense than USC. However, you proven your argument with stats. I applaud you. But USC offense is a machine. IMO BUSH and White are top 5 RB's in the country. WR Dwane Jarret is #1 WR in the country. Then you have bunch of other star but not elite players. USC FB's are prob. the best catching FB's in the country. TE BYRD is top 5 in country talent wise but not stat wise. His #'s are hurt because of surrounding talent. Then USC #2 WR Smith is star WR that is completely overshadowed. I think he had 3 TD catches against OU in OB. But he is a nobody in the USC offense. The USC OL is top 3 in the country. QB is #1 in the country.
Am I stretching the truth on any of this? You are going to tell me Texas has a more diverse offense? I don't think so. On Jan. 4th you will see the Texas D look clueless while the USC D with a gameplan. Texas offense is a gimmick high school offense.
*USC needs to develop a 3rd WR option and is trying to get freshman WR Patrick Turner to be that guy. He will be better than Mike Williams and Dwane Jarret. He was #1 high school WR in the country last year out of TN. Star in the making. He would be the starting WR for 90% of college teams in the country. Each week is seeing more and more playing time and always producing.
USC is averaging 28.9 more points than they surrender per game. They rush for 126.4 more ypg than their opponents. They pass for 107.8 more ypg than they surrender.
This stat will mislead you. USC has only played 2 games all year where 1st string O and 1st string D played 4 quarters. (@ND and @ASU) Most of USC's games were over at half or by the end of the 3q. USC also has given up $hit load of points on special teams. Horrible special teams for most of the year except last 2 games where USC has improved. That skews the ppg.
Texas' average margin of victory is 35.8 points. They rush for 170.9 more ypg than their opponents, and pass for 79.2 more yards each game than the opponent musters.
Thats great stuff but who has Texas played? The best offense Texas faced was TT who runs a gimmick offense that isn't balanced. TT offense always gets shut down against quality opponents. Who else has Texas played with a good offense? I can tell you the offenses Texas seen all year are LIGHT YEARS behind what USC will bring on Jan. 4th. Ask OU D.
Texas has fumbled 27 times and lost only 6, while we have forced 18 fumbles and recovered 10.
Texas seems to turn the ball over in big games. I think Texas had 3 turnovers @Ohio St., 1 turnover against OU (but could easily have had more), and 2 turnovers in 1h against Texas Tech. 2/3 were played @Texas.
Last year against Michigan in BCS Rose Bowl Texas had 2 turnovers. Against #2 ranked OU last year Texas had 3 turnovers.
Against USC you cannot turn the ball over. Especially at the end of the year. Playing USC Jan. 4th in the Rose Bowl for the BCS NC will be the biggest game EVER for these Texas players and coaches. Good luck!
USC had ZERO turnovers against OU in BCS bowl, 1 turnover against Michigan in BCS bowl (that turnover came at the end of the 4th quarter on the Michigan goal line where USC was going to score a TD), and USC had ZERO turnovers against Iowa in BCS bowl game. So essentially USC has played 3 straight BCS bowl games and had ZERO turnovers. USC is a very well coached team who is prepared and plays their best ball at the end of the year.
You already know about our Defense.
Your defense is very talented and overall very good. I respect your D. However, your D has no idea how to defense USC's offense. That is the truth. They really have no clue. USC has faced your DC twice and he was no match against USC and he had superior athletes on defense. I would not be confident in him coming up with a gameplan to stop the best offense EVER at USC.