question for AFLrs...

[theGibber1]

let me start off with this..

i know nothing about the AFL..

but one thing that strikes me odd is that a
27 pt favorite is only -350 on the ML...

while a 30pt fav is -500 on the ML..
thats a bit of a jump for 3pts?

i usually dont like to lay alot of chalk but a 27 pt fav at -350 doesnt seem that bad.

again i dont know how the game is played.

my question is..

is there value in a -350ML fav
or is this a type game were you never know who the hell is going to win.?

thank you lads

 

[kickserv]

e-mail Anders (tell him kickserv sent ya!).........he'll answer your question for ya........he knows a lot about the AFL and the NRL. And besides he lives over there!


pleasebequietplease@hotmail.com


(also........sometimes you can find good AFL and NRL odds at Sportsinteraction......thought I'd pass that along to ya!)


Good luck!

 

[kickserv]

and yes I know.........e-mail addresses aren't allowed...thought I'd get away with it just this once!!!!

 

[MrChristo]

I'll have first crack at the reply then .....

Let me start off by saying that most books seem to be working on a much larger over-round on AFL than any other sport :shrug: Why?..I dunno, just something I've noticed.

A goal is worth 6 points in AFL, so a 27 pt. fav, is the equivalent to a 9 pt. fav in NBA (for all intents and purposes.)
So if you know nothing of the game, you can make comparisons on spread/ml that way.....

As for picking winners, we have tipping competitions here in Oz to pick each winner each week, and out of the 8 games played every week, if you can pick 6 winners you are doing a good job!
(Having said that, I'm not sure how many -350 pops get beaten.....the same % as any other sport :shrug: )

If you can get -350 for Port Adelaide this weekend, then help yourself

Hope that all makes some sense

 

[PAWAQATSI]

It's AFL......Not NZFL !!!!

 

[Cartman88]

I have just read this thread .... sorry I hadn't replied sooner.

MrChristo summed it up nicely by giving some sort of comparison between AFL and NBA lines.

I personally think there is usually little value taking -350 in AFL for the simple reason that there is not that much difference between most sides in the competition (especially from 3rd to 16th place).

The main exception is when Brisbane or Port Adelaide play at home against one of the weaker sides however you will be lucky to find -350. It is usually something like -500.

 

[theGibber1]

so you think there is value in this play?

i have it at -350

 

[MrChristo]

LOL!! By the time I typed I'd have first crack there were 2 posts before me !!!

If it's Port Adelaide @ -350, then yes....I believe they will win reasonably easily

Beaten the Bulldogs last 3 by minimum of 47 points (4 if we count pre-season). Won 6 straight at home by average of over 40, and all the Bulldogs wins have come over poor teams.

I have them in a series of parlays, so I'm very confident.

 

[Cartman88]

I agree with MrChristo that Port Adelaide should win this match but I am still not convinced that -350 is great value.

Both teams are in solid form having won their past 5 matches.

Wstn Bulldogs have admittedly not faced the strongest opposition (St Kilda Freo Richmond Geelong Sydney) but are a very confident side at the moment.

I have played Wstn Bulldogs +28.5 as I think they will remain quite competitive. There is always a risk betting against Port Adelaide at the spread as they are capable of putting on some very fast points if the play goes their way.

Good luck if you do end up having a bet.

 

[theGibber1]

thanks for the input lads!


kind of scary putting down over $1600 just to win $500. but that was an easy win.


again thank you so much...

American football is my sport. I only hope i can help you gents out one day and repay my dept...

but for now, i think ill cash in my chips and wait for the NFL ( a sport that makes more damn sense to me!) ha


thanks again

 

[kickserv]

Yes Gibber......these guys know their stuff.........I myself am with you.....I know little about the NRL and the AFL but I listen to these guys.....I've made some good $$$ listening to them!



and if you are interested in laying big chalk........here's a tennis bet for you (see all my pics in the "Wimbledon" section)

take E Likhovtseva at $1.18 (womens)
take J Henin at $1.12 (womens)
take M Seles at $1.12 (womens)
take R Schuettler at $1.25 (men)

Huge chalk.........but go for it if ya want

:topic:


if things go well you can throw me an Football pick!

 

[Cartman88]

theGibber1,

Congrats on the win - Port Adelaide were simply too good today.

MrChristo,

Good luck the rest of the parlays you have going.