Calculated personal edge is DIFFERENT for each game you bet on
For example,
Bobby's current bankroll is $10,000
Day One :
Team A +3.5 -106
Team B -3.5 - 104
Bobby thinks team A will win SU or lose by no more than 3 points to Team B 56% of the time if these two teams played under similiar circumstances "in the long run "
Therefore Bobby will wager $936.00 on this game
p*o - 1 0.56* (20.60/10.60) - 1
b= ------- = ----------------------=9.360% of his bankroll
o - 1 20.60/10.60 - 1
Let us assume Bobby belongs to the miniscule subset of the general population known as "successful sports bettors
FINAL SCORE
TEAM A 73
TEAM B 75
his $936 bet to win $883.02 was successful
Bobby's new bankroll is $10,883.02
Day Two:
Team F +5.5 -103
Team Z -5.5 -107
Bobby think's Team Z will win by 6 points or more 54 % of the time if these two plays played under similar circumstances " in the long run "
Therefore Bobby will wager $520.21 of his current bankroll to win $486.18 on this game
p*o -1 0.54* (20.70/10.70) - 1
b= -------=------------------------------------=4.780 % of his bankroll
o- 1 20.70/10.70 - 1
As you can see from the above illustration, even though both bets had similar "vigs", -106 and -107 respectively, since his preceived edge on each game was different, Bobby wagered considerably different amounts
Bobby has calculated a personal edge that is different on each game is this as good as keeping it all the same, I say yes but talking to alot of sharps they say both is good
Just wondering what you guys think ? if anybody does this for a living here.......I agree with this formula under these circumstances
For example,
Bobby's current bankroll is $10,000
Day One :
Team A +3.5 -106
Team B -3.5 - 104
Bobby thinks team A will win SU or lose by no more than 3 points to Team B 56% of the time if these two teams played under similiar circumstances "in the long run "
Therefore Bobby will wager $936.00 on this game
p*o - 1 0.56* (20.60/10.60) - 1
b= ------- = ----------------------=9.360% of his bankroll
o - 1 20.60/10.60 - 1
Let us assume Bobby belongs to the miniscule subset of the general population known as "successful sports bettors
FINAL SCORE
TEAM A 73
TEAM B 75
his $936 bet to win $883.02 was successful
Bobby's new bankroll is $10,883.02
Day Two:
Team F +5.5 -103
Team Z -5.5 -107
Bobby think's Team Z will win by 6 points or more 54 % of the time if these two plays played under similar circumstances " in the long run "
Therefore Bobby will wager $520.21 of his current bankroll to win $486.18 on this game
p*o -1 0.54* (20.70/10.70) - 1
b= -------=------------------------------------=4.780 % of his bankroll
o- 1 20.70/10.70 - 1
As you can see from the above illustration, even though both bets had similar "vigs", -106 and -107 respectively, since his preceived edge on each game was different, Bobby wagered considerably different amounts
Bobby has calculated a personal edge that is different on each game is this as good as keeping it all the same, I say yes but talking to alot of sharps they say both is good
Just wondering what you guys think ? if anybody does this for a living here.......I agree with this formula under these circumstances
