Question for baseball cappers

[barry_virus]

Just wanted some input please:

Do you prefer to make a pick closer to gametime: umpires, lineups late injuries reports etc

Or make a very early play: See a line that you are enthralled with?

Wait on line movement? Some of the late line moves at pinnacle have proved to be very profitable or when they have at least a 20 cent line curve from other 'softer books'

Just food for thought. Thanks to all for any input.

 

[mackman]

I played Atl tonight and then changed it when I found out the big hitter wasn't playing....It worked out!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Later in the season, I use a formula I developed that gives me a percentage for the sides. I can then compare that to the line to try and find value. The number-crunching is quite easy, once some reasonable stats are available, and I can compare it against the line pretty quick when they open. I, personally, do not rely on line movements, only using them if a game shows a small value (which I won't play), then the line moves in my favour to provide a worthwhile value (which rarely occurs, so line movements are more of a novelty to me).

Early in the season (like now), I do a similar thing, without the %; instead deciding on a line I figure might be fair for the team I prefer, and then check what the real line is, and follow the same pursuit of value, only playing the game if the line is better than the one I thought reasonable.

Line movements may be something that other 'cappers can make use of--both in betting and even in picking sides--but I generally can't predict which way there going to move, and I'm certainly not going to prefer one side or the other simply based on such movements.

Good fortunes to you.

 

[slick willy 17]

I'll tell you one thing, the line has moved against the Cubs almost every game, sometimes significantly. Line moves are very interesting and useful, if you get used to what you're looking for.

 

[THE MASTER]

A prime example -

Today half the world was on Houston including myself. Why? over 80% of many of the books were on the Astros and the line went from -133 to -139. Then just before game time (10 min.) the line dropped all the way to -131. That told me that some heavy hitters at the last minute threw a bundle on the Pirates while the % (80%) never changed. What did I do? 10 units went on Pitt 5 minutes before game time. Result? +125 X 10=$1,250.00! Moral of the story? ALWAYS wait for a last minute signal, i.e. line movement, injuries, last minute pitching changes etc.......

Hope this helps.

- RICK -

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Is that a prime example?
How many times, I wonder, have such line movements occured where the heavy hitters came out on the losing end?
The movement you describe does not sound significant, and many explanations could be surmised to explain it, as has been discussed in these forums for years.
Here is a case where line movements caused a gambler to bet against himself--and not even in a situation where the line moved enough to give any type of middle.

If you always wait for last minute signals then you may be paying more for a future that you might have anticipated regardless. Most of the time, if anything, the line moves against me--maybe this means that I am 'capping properly, maybe this means that I am Joe Public. Either way, this is why I will move on value if I see it and not wait for adjustments in my favour...or against my favour.

Anybody could have won the game in question,
what with the putrid scoring. I extrapolated from grim bats and solid starting pitchers that it would be low scoring. I bet on the teams matched up and the future offered, not on any theory of line manipulations--movements which will inevitably occur daily, but do not generally indicate who will come out on the winning side.

Let the debate continue.
And have fun (and $$$) in your prognostications.

 

[Cie]

Sorry, but to "ALWAYS wait for a last minute line signal" is silly. Sure, different cappers use different methods, but to play against yourself for 10 times your original play based on an $.08 line move is absurd.

GL on your capping. It appears that you will be needing it.

Cie:weed: