Question for Nolan

[topspinner]

Nolan,

First of all I would like to thank you for the time and energy you put into posting your column here at Madjacks's, it is my first read everday.

I was wondering if you can help out a novice baseball totals bettor. I usually agree with about 80% of your totals posts, but today, I don't understand why you feel so strongly about the k.c/tigers under. Everything I see points to the over.

1. Last 8 out of 10 between two teams have played over.
2. Kc is averaging 8.5/run per game against righties last 10.
3. Umpire favors over 10-5 this season, with an average of over 11 runs per game
4. Neither has pitched well over the last 3, Suppan's era over 5 and Weavers over 10, the last three games.
5. Key players on each teams hit opposing pitchers well.

6. Tigers average over 5 runs a game at home vs righties.


The game will probably end up 2-1. But if you could provide any insight, it would be most appreciated. If it is a trade secret I understand.

Thanks

 

[Nolan Dalla]

TopSpinner:

Good question.

All the recent stats do point to an OVER.

However, this is a rare contrarian plays based on expectation two solid starters with bad recent outings will return to form. Weaver has good overall stats but has been bombed in recent starts (same to a lesser extent for Suppan). I expect a stronger effort by at least one, if not both pitchers in today's game (for totals to go OVER it usually requires production from both teams). Weaver and suppon are certainly both capable of shutting down the opponent. Also, both pitchers, despite recent poor starts have last an average of 6 IP in those starts so both are primed to go 6-7 innings today. Kansas City has been overachieving in run production recently, and neither team is known for power (HRs are a death blow to an UNDER bet). If either pitcher holds the other team to 1-2 runs (which I beleive will happen) the other team wil have to score 8+ to break the total. I espeically love the hook on the 9 here, as a 4-4 tie does not guarantee a loss/push (9.5 is the key number for UNDER players -- especially with two decent starters, and two offenses that have been hitting well recently, but which could certainly return to the mean -- hitting .268). As for the umpire going 5-10 in totals, I did not have that information when I posted the report last night. That does concern me, which caused me to downgrade the play to a $300 bet.

Game is ready to start....sorry I did not respond sooner.


Nolan Dalla