Question for totals players

[Nick Douglas]

I have always struggled playing totals so I am thinking of buying back my bets this week since the lines moved in my favor.

I have KC/NYG over 39, and I can buy back under 40. That means if the game lands on 39 or 40, I would win $300, but if it lands elsewhere, I would lose $30.

I have NYJ/NE over 38.5, and I can buy it back at 39.5. That means if it lands on 39, I win $600, and if it lands elsewhere, I lose $30.

First of all, do you guys think that mathematically these are good bets to buy them back and go for the middle. Secondly, do you guys like the overs in those two games? Probably sounds like a dumb question but like I said, I have just always struggled with totals so I am looking for feedback in trying to get profitable with them.

 

[pepin46]

can't tell you what to do. i can say that it seems like almost every time i have second thoughts about a pick or bet, the second thoughts were correct.

just a couple of weeks ago, i had 4 4-parlays, all with 3 legs in by saturday, sitting on the outcome of one key sunday game. all i had to do was bet against one team whatever amount i wanted to insure. i didn't. guess what happened? i got zilch, of course. money management is not one of my trademarks. high risk is what gets my adrenaline flowing.

my personal opinion is that they both look like unders, but who the heck knows.


pep

 

[ESQAJM]

I like to middle my total bets if the line moves enough. It depends on what the middle numbers are and how many numbers are in the middle. In the Giant game you have 2 numbers, 39 & 40. 39 is not much of a number as it probably would need a missed extra point to make it, but 40 is not bad. I usually like to middle a game if I could catch 3 numbers. The other game you only have 1 number, 39 which is a bad number, and its not worth a middle as you will end up losing the vigorish. If you just want to get out of the bet that's a different story.

 

[hawkeye]

like kc under

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Nick, this is a tough question to answer because you can make a case for EITHER side of the coin.

But looking at your betting style, i think you can take a -$60.00 hit in the pocket if you feel like buying back your wagers...

personally, i think there are alot of better totals out there to bet on...but that's just me.

 

[Desert Scrub]

Don't know what's best for you but FWIW I'm playing the NYJ Over as one of my 7 plays this week. The KC game looks tricky to me so I'm passing on it. I think ESQAJM laid it out pretty good for you.
Good luck with whatever you decide.