Question on middles

[TheShrimp]

Obviously, if you could get team A +10, and team B -4, you'd put a lot on that middle (doesn't matter what sport you're talking about), but what of more realistic cases? Assume that in all cases below, you're paying 110 to win 100.

Now, if you could get team A +5, and Team B -4.5, the number probably is not going to fall on 5 often enough to cover the vig. Here, you lose/win mostly, but push/win sometimes. You would have to push/win >9% of the time for this to be profitable.

But, what is your opinion if you had +5 and -4? Here, you push/win on 4 or 5 and lose/win all other times. The means you need it to fall on 4 OR 5 >9% of the time. That's a big difference. Do you grab it? Are you more likely to grab it if it's like a 3,4 in a low scoring football game than 12,13 in a college hoops matchup?

What of +5.5, -4.5? Here, you lose/win as often in as the 5/4.5 case, but win/win if it falls on 5. That has to happen only 4.8% of the time for you to break even. Under what conditions do you grab it?

What about when you start getting 1.5 point differences. You have 1 number to push/win. One number to win/win and all other numbers to win/lose. Is this an automatic play for you? If not, at what point and under what cicumstances does it become a must play for you?

thanks for any thoughts on the matter. and thanks for any relevant stats you may have concerning the number of games that fall on the line.

TheShrimp

 

[HONUS]

I think it depends on the sport.

I don't think much of a 1-1.5 point difference in basketball.

I think very much of a 1-1.5 point difference in football, especially if the number revolves around 3 and 4. Then, I think it is very worth it for a shot.

 

[cooch]

Shrimp

You have to hit 1 out of every 20 to break even as long as you play them all for the same amount. I play alot of middles (this doesn't make me a expert) here is my thoughts. If you don't have a middle it's not a middle. But in Football 3's - 4's and 7's are the live #'s so pushing a side has a good chance. Same for hoops on a 2's or 3's. I have set up a system of units to play for each 1 point that I get in the middle also I give 1 extra point if it's on what I consider the majic #'s(3-4-7- or 2-3) The reason for the system is to monitor the ratio of the 1 in 20 I need to hit. Just my take.

Cooch