$$$$ question

[marine]

Someone please help me out here as I need to discover the error in my math and I can not find it. If I can not find it, (and if it really does exist) i am gonna use this theory and I do not want to end up losing the farm. I am looking for someone to show me worst possible case scenario if i were to do the following:

i will show it with just one game.
(denver&AZ game is a good example)

7.5 point tease. 140/100
Play 1.4 to win 1.00 on
<b>Denver -0 & GB -1</b>
play 1.40 to win 1.00 on
<b>AZ +15.5 & GB -1</b>

So i have 2.80 riding to win 2.0 units with the possibility of both of these plays being "live" when the GB/WASH game kicks off.

washington is a +330 ML dog.
If i put 1 unit on WASH +330...

If wash wins outright, I collect a profit of 1.3 units on the day.
If GB wins (-1) I collect 1 unit on the day

Now, if only one of the teasers is "live" come monday nite:
I am running into some problems doing the math on this one... I cant figure out a way to earn profit, other than if i were to have multiple other games played into this same scenario. At worst I would lose .5 units if only one teaser was live going in.
But i am in actuality getting a 14 point middle for the cost of .5 units on these games.


What is stopping me from doing this to every game on the card this sunday? and then hedge it off on monday nite?
seems to me i could pull in 1 unit per game played with little concern over who wins any game.

this would be especially nice on MNF games with a line of 6-6.5 points as the teaser cost would be much less with vig.

comments and thoughts?
please tear me apart on this one folks. My mind has been wandering while I stand watch... thinking of all kinds of schemes to make money and what not while i am in my down time between watches. I dunno if it is lack of sleep or incredible dumb luck that i stumbled on this...

 

[Investment Executive]

if only one teaser is alive going into monday night and green bay covers....you lose -1.40 units, no?

teaser a) 1.40 to win 1.00 .....win 1.00
teaser b) 1.40 to win 1.00 .....lose 1.40
s/u wash c) 1.00 to win 3.30...lose 1.00

if both teasers are alive and green bay covers you win 1.00 unit.

if both teasers are alive and wash wins you win 0.50 units.



[This message has been edited by Investment Executive (edited 09-17-2001).]

 

[marine]

yup IE, that's exactly what I was trying to figure out. I have been up trying to run the math around it if i were to just take my normal plays I would make after capping them, and then tease those picks into the MNF game to have the opportunity to try and lock in profits on the games.
Right now it looks like i will just be keeping track on a pad of paper with monopoly money to see how i would have fared and then figure it out and see what i can do later on in the season.

i remember someone doing it awhile back with nba games during the week and teasing them into the MNF game and it was profitable for them. Moreso, I am trying to figure out if this could be more profitable or reduce the swings of a bankroll more over the course of a season or am i just wasting my time.

 

[wondo]

My math shows differently on both alive: If both are alive and you play Wash for 1 unit, you only make 1/2 unit if wash wins:

1.4 risk teaser #1
1.4 risk teaser #2
=2.8 unit risk GB
win 3.3 units Was
3.3-2.8 = +.5 units total if was wins

+1 units if GB wins
1 unit + 1 unit - 1unit wash = +1 unit total

If both are alive, you might consider risking 1.1 or barely more on Wash, so you make the same whether or not they win.

If either one is dead, you are down 1.4 units automatically, then you have could have:

1.4 risk GB (whichever tease is left)
lay .56 units on Was to guarantee the same profit (~.44) which leaves you with just under 1 unit loss for the day total.

or

1.4 risk GB (the tease that's left)
1 unit risk wash
if GB wins, you are down 1.4 units,
If was wins, you have 3.3-1.4-1.4=.5 units -- so you actually profit (but then the question one would ask is why tease GB in the first place?)

So basically it looks like you might kick yourself for doing that if you plan on buying back.

 

[Investment Executive]

you are correct wondo, typo on my part on the wash gain ....

 

[marine]

thanks guys.
see what happens when someone has too much time to sit and think? you start seeing things that do not really exist.