Questions for JBBrown2...

[JCoverS]

Personally (for you), when using the "light" ML as an angle for your underdog plays, do you ONLY play it when you have all three of the following: 1) shaded ML fave (per your chart); 2) consensus over 60% on the fave; 3) underdog is at home? It seems like from what I've been reading from you, this is the case. Would like to get some confirmation. Additionally, surely you don't always use BetUS when looking for these? There are other very sharp linesmakers out there that undoubtedly shade the line like this, so how do you tell when to pull the trigger? I've been following this thing for a several days now and I'm trying to refine my own process and thought you'd be the guy to ask for further clarification. Anyway, I really appreciate you turning a few of us onto this angle. I realize it doesn't always produce winners, but it is something I never previously considered and makes perfect sense.

Thanks for your time,

-JC

 

[JBBrown2]

JC,

you just have to learn and feel out these games. How is a team (underdog) playing at the time. I have no strict rules but for plays to be "Manginas" which hit at nearly 75% those three requirements are normally in place. I have made money on home dogs in which the public gives no chance and heavily backs the fav. Also when you see a team like boston for instance in the nba favored by 3 over a team like memphis at memphis after boston as played 6 out of last 7 on the road on back to back nights and the line is light then you've got something. That situation might only occur 10 times a year but i can almost guarantee that the home dog covers if not wins 70% or so of the time. The key is to use that chart I gave yall and pick your spots. Don't look for games just to bet on a particular night but find games that you truly find a value in. For your second question No i don't always use betus for the lines but they are one i always check. i look at several. if they are all light on a game then great. if two of three are dead on and the other is a bit light then probably shouldn't pay it much attention. Also like i said in the other thread. if a line is 10 off i dont even bother noticing it. but if i see a game in the nba like tonight where Denver was -7 -290 on betus and -7 -300 on thegreek and -6.5 -240 at pinnacle then it grabs my attention. all those are off at least 30 and after looking into it some more it was my only play of the day on memphis and it hit but i didn't see anything else on the board but ill take 1 for 1 all day long. so make sure these moneylines are way off and youll do better.... for lines 4 through 7 i'd say at least 30 off....for the lower lines you have to kinda play with it but for a line of -2 if it is off 10 then that is more significant but for a -3.5 you might want to see at least 20 off or so and again you just have to get a feel for what your seeing. i have used this for 5 or so years now and you just get better at seeing it the more you look......thats looking and analyzing not always betting. one year i compiled a closing line/ml sheet for lines 2-7 in the nba and anything 40 or more off on lines 4.5-7 and 20 off the 2-4 lines hit at 78% but i didnt play a game that year.....just researched. same with football. but again its not perfect but works for me. also you occasionally going to get a game that you wait till 5 min before tip/kickoff and the line/ml is going to move and it will no longer be a play but your bet is in.....it happens many times.......some still hit some dont but it is just part of it. i hope that helps....kinda rambled a bunch but just stick with it and set limits....you can't put 100 bucks on one game and 500 on the next just cause you feel like it. you have to stay consistent. good luck and ill be on from time to time to point out some games but four horse seems to have got it nailed down sofar.

gl
JB

 

[Theboundbook]

JC,

you just have to learn and feel out these games. How is a team (underdog) playing at the time. I have no strict rules but for plays to be "Manginas" which hit at nearly 75% those three requirements are normally in place. I have made money on home dogs in which the public gives no chance and heavily backs the fav. Also when you see a team like boston for instance in the nba favored by 3 over a team like memphis at memphis after boston as played 6 out of last 7 on the road on back to back nights and the line is light then you've got something. That situation might only occur 10 times a year but i can almost guarantee that the home dog covers if not wins 70% or so of the time. The key is to use that chart I gave yall and pick your spots. Don't look for games just to bet on a particular night but find games that you truly find a value in. For your second question No i don't always use betus for the lines but they are one i always check. i look at several. if they are all light on a game then great. if two of three are dead on and the other is a bit light then probably shouldn't pay it much attention. Also like i said in the other thread. if a line is 10 off i dont even bother noticing it. but if i see a game in the nba like tonight where Denver was -7 -290 on betus and -7 -300 on thegreek and -6.5 -240 at pinnacle then it grabs my attention. all those are off at least 30 and after looking into it some more it was my only play of the day on memphis and it hit but i didn't see anything else on the board but ill take 1 for 1 all day long. so make sure these moneylines are way off and youll do better.... for lines 4 through 7 i'd say at least 30 off....for the lower lines you have to kinda play with it but for a line of -2 if it is off 10 then that is more significant but for a -3.5 you might want to see at least 20 off or so and again you just have to get a feel for what your seeing. i have used this for 5 or so years now and you just get better at seeing it the more you look......thats looking and analyzing not always betting. one year i compiled a closing line/ml sheet for lines 2-7 in the nba and anything 40 or more off on lines 4.5-7 and 20 off the 2-4 lines hit at 78% but i didnt play a game that year.....just researched. same with football. but again its not perfect but works for me. also you occasionally going to get a game that you wait till 5 min before tip/kickoff and the line/ml is going to move and it will no longer be a play but your bet is in.....it happens many times.......some still hit some dont but it is just part of it. i hope that helps....kinda rambled a bunch but just stick with it and set limits....you can't put 100 bucks on one game and 500 on the next just cause you feel like it. you have to stay consistent. good luck and ill be on from time to time to point out some games but four horse seems to have got it nailed down sofar.

gl
JB

Makes sense to me!!! Gonna be watching how you do with this and trying to figure in some other things I use and if the stars line up, then so will we; in the cash the ticket line!!!

Thanks for the explanation. . . Respect your picks alot!

 

[eeeerock]

I have one ? in regards to tonight as I showed the biggest differnce on the Knicks/Nets game,played it and won easy,as far as the ML being way off,it wasn't a home dog but had a public backing and won easy.Did I get lucky or did you miss this one.Working the ML in accordance I actually had 3 plays Miami,Nets,Grizzlies all winners.Thanks.

 

[JBBrown2]

eee,

that one was off and a good winner. i saw it but just didn't feel as strong but i was wrong as it turned out to be the biggest margin of victory. you played it correctly based on the system for sure. according to my lines it was off about 40 which is rather large so continued success.

JB

 

[JBBrown2]

chi was another one that had my interest and also some of you might have noticed that phoenix was actually heavy and they covered as a fav. now i never really play heavys but interesting and sometimes can help you stay off a tasty looking dog aka "they are getting how many". there were several games tonight to play. i tried to pick one and loaded up on it and it just happened to be memphis but everyone will approach this differently, thats a guarantee.

JB