RAS Sunday Night "Early Looks" Report - Week 3
Current Season Records
RAS Plays: 0-3
Early Looks: 3-2
Halftime Plays: 2-1
Total Units:-2.45
(RAS Plays are graded for 1 UNIT, early looks and halftime plays are graded for 1/2 UNIT)
Five early looks this week:
Troy State +10.5 over Missouri (Thursday)
The Trojans won at Cincinnati in 1999, at Miss State in 2001, and at UAB last year. They have also given scares to many other elite teams over the years, but never has any member of a BCS conference visited Troy which is what Missouri will be doing here. Given that, and the ESPN2 national television broadcast, this is easily the biggest football game in the history of the school. Troy State went 6-6 last year despite playing 8 road games and visiting the likes of Minnesota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Kansas State. With a very young team (9 returning starters) they won at UAB, at Utah State, and beat Marshall here at home by 9. This year they are a much stronger team (17 returning starters plus some solid additions) and started the season winning at Marshall, which is never an easy feat, giving them a win over the Herd for the second year in a row. This team plays ferocious defense. They have two future NFL players on the defensive line and that unit dominated Marshall in the opener allowing just 25 rushing yards and registering 8 sacks. Keep in mind Marshall led the MAC in rushing in 2003. The Herd finished the game with only 202 total yards and 11 first downs. 13 of Marshall's 16 points were the direct result of short fields gained from botched punts and an interception. TSU's offense was not pretty but they have a mobile QB and other skill position players who are capable. Missouri is a good football team with an outstanding QB. Coming into the season, good things were expected from the Mizzou defense as well, but they yeilded 438 yards in the season opener vs Arkansas State. Offensively, Mizzou's weakness may be an inexperienced offensive line which could spell big trouble against this tough TSU defensive front. Both teams played on Saturday and will have a short weak to prepare, but Missouri loses more time by having to travel. Troy has looked good enough playing on the road, their potential is untapped at home where they are 22-1 straight up the last 5 years. I expect this to be a low scoring game and for Troy to stay within the number. I will also be looking at playing the under once a line is posted.
Northwestern -2.5 over Arizona State
A big question for the Wildcats heading into the season would be if QB Brett Basanez could perform up to the potential he showed as a freshman. In the season opener at TCU, the answer was a resounding yes. Basanez completed 39 of 62 passes for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Wildcat receivers are night and day better than last season. Three receivers caught at least 8 balls and all three routinely gained big yardage after the catch. Keep in mind that the Northwestern offense returned all 5 offensive line starters from last season and were thought to be a strong running team coming into the season. They now will give defensive coordinators nightmares with a tremendous balanced attack. The Northwestern defense lost its best pash rusher just days before the season opener and they made a lot of mental mistakes against a very good TCU offense in the opener. Coaches say many of their mistakes are easily correctable and while the defense still may not be a strength, I expect them to show improvement and be respectable. ASU QB Andrew Walter really can be a tease. He can look like an NFL star on one play and then look dismal the next three plays. I do not know if it is him, the play calling, or lack of a big play receiver, but this offense continues to be very inconsistent. Walter puts up big yardage numbers but his completion percentage last year was only 52.5%. Not what you would expect from a big name QB. He went just 18-for-37 (48.6%) and was sacked three times versus an inferior UTEP team in the season opener. At least two of his passes should have been picked off. Head coach Koetter after the game said he felt the offense was out of sync all night. Not what you would expect against a UTEP defense that has been one of the nations worst in recent years. ASU lost top CB RJ Oliver (foot) for the year prior to season opener. Starting safety Ricardo Stewart sat out the opener and is "?" for this game. Starting OL Brandon Rodd suffered a knee injury vs UTEP and is out for the season. Starting center Drew Hodgdon (foot) is also listed as "?" for this. The Sun Devils have struggled on the road under Koetter, going 7-15 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS a dog. The big question for Northwestern is if they can recover from the heartbreaking OT loss at TCU. They showed a lot of character in that game. With two extra days to prepare and playing in their home opener they should be ready to go.
Penn State -1 over Boston College
The Nittany Lions could not wait for this season to begin and they came out hitting on all cylinders versus Akron in their season opener. Surely on the road at BC will be a much tougher task, but Akron features NFL bound QB Charlie Frye and will be a tough out for any MAC team this season. The 48-10 margin of victory and fashion in which it was done was impressive. Senior QB Zack Mills is completely healthy again and the quarterback and receiver issues from last season are long gone. Sophomore running back tandem of Austin Scott and Tony Hunt looked superb in first game. Junior QB/RB/WR Michael Robinson is a great all-purpose threat. The defense returns 7 starters and looked much better also. They have some good young talent on that side of the ball. Boston College is coming off a lackluster 19-11 win at Ball State in their opener. They benefitted from a kickoff return for a TD or the game might have been even closer. BC suffered some key injuries in the game losing top RB LV Whitworth and starting LT Jeremy Trueblood for at least this game. With the injury to Trueblood, BC now only has one returning starter on their offensive line and two of the losses were 1st team Big East picks last year. It is the first time in O'Brien's tenure that their are no seniors on the line. If the questionable line is unable to establish a successful running game, BC will be forced to throw and have been inconsistent doing so since the beginning of last year. Starting QB Paul Peterson went 12-for-23 for 135 yards vs a weak Ball State team in opener. BC continues to be plagued by penalties (11 for 72 yards in opener) and feature true freshman at both kicker and punter. PSU will be playing its first revenge game of the season. Some big turnovers early on and poor run defense led to PSU's demise in a 27-14 loss to BC in Happy Valley. Look for them to turn the tables this year.
Notre Dame +13.5 over Michigan
The Irish disappointed badly, particularly on offense, in their season opener at BYU. A team who performs poorly on national television the week prior often is a good value the next week. I believe that to be the case here, especially since college teams are said to improve the most from game one to game two. Notre Dame easily could have been looking past BYU to this game and a chance to avenge last years 38-0 loss in Ann Arbor. The Notre Dame defense looked in good shape and the offense has too much talent to not come alive soon. Michigan's 43-10 season opening win over Miami, Ohio is a bit misleading. This game was tied 0-0 in the 2nd quarter and Michigan led 24-10 with the Redhawks driving inside the 20 early on in the 4th quarter before an interception runback blew the game open. Michigan only outgained Miami by 24 yards and only notched one more first down. This is despite 7 Redhawk turnovers. The Wolverines are a very strong team but their current QB issues will put them at a major disadvantage in this big road game. Projected starter Gutierrez injured a shoulder two days before the opener and true freshman Chad Henne got the start. Henne made a few big plays (14-for-24, 2 TD, 1 INT) but with only 30 practices and one game under his belt, play calling will be limited. Not to mention playing on the road at Notre Dame is a much different animal than a home game vs Miami Ohio. Gutierrez is listed as questionable for the game but it would be his first collegiate start as well. One way or another, the Irish should keep this game close. The early action appears to be on Michigan, we may end up getting +14 here.
Continued...
Current Season Records
RAS Plays: 0-3
Early Looks: 3-2
Halftime Plays: 2-1
Total Units:-2.45
(RAS Plays are graded for 1 UNIT, early looks and halftime plays are graded for 1/2 UNIT)
Five early looks this week:
Troy State +10.5 over Missouri (Thursday)
The Trojans won at Cincinnati in 1999, at Miss State in 2001, and at UAB last year. They have also given scares to many other elite teams over the years, but never has any member of a BCS conference visited Troy which is what Missouri will be doing here. Given that, and the ESPN2 national television broadcast, this is easily the biggest football game in the history of the school. Troy State went 6-6 last year despite playing 8 road games and visiting the likes of Minnesota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Kansas State. With a very young team (9 returning starters) they won at UAB, at Utah State, and beat Marshall here at home by 9. This year they are a much stronger team (17 returning starters plus some solid additions) and started the season winning at Marshall, which is never an easy feat, giving them a win over the Herd for the second year in a row. This team plays ferocious defense. They have two future NFL players on the defensive line and that unit dominated Marshall in the opener allowing just 25 rushing yards and registering 8 sacks. Keep in mind Marshall led the MAC in rushing in 2003. The Herd finished the game with only 202 total yards and 11 first downs. 13 of Marshall's 16 points were the direct result of short fields gained from botched punts and an interception. TSU's offense was not pretty but they have a mobile QB and other skill position players who are capable. Missouri is a good football team with an outstanding QB. Coming into the season, good things were expected from the Mizzou defense as well, but they yeilded 438 yards in the season opener vs Arkansas State. Offensively, Mizzou's weakness may be an inexperienced offensive line which could spell big trouble against this tough TSU defensive front. Both teams played on Saturday and will have a short weak to prepare, but Missouri loses more time by having to travel. Troy has looked good enough playing on the road, their potential is untapped at home where they are 22-1 straight up the last 5 years. I expect this to be a low scoring game and for Troy to stay within the number. I will also be looking at playing the under once a line is posted.
Northwestern -2.5 over Arizona State
A big question for the Wildcats heading into the season would be if QB Brett Basanez could perform up to the potential he showed as a freshman. In the season opener at TCU, the answer was a resounding yes. Basanez completed 39 of 62 passes for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Wildcat receivers are night and day better than last season. Three receivers caught at least 8 balls and all three routinely gained big yardage after the catch. Keep in mind that the Northwestern offense returned all 5 offensive line starters from last season and were thought to be a strong running team coming into the season. They now will give defensive coordinators nightmares with a tremendous balanced attack. The Northwestern defense lost its best pash rusher just days before the season opener and they made a lot of mental mistakes against a very good TCU offense in the opener. Coaches say many of their mistakes are easily correctable and while the defense still may not be a strength, I expect them to show improvement and be respectable. ASU QB Andrew Walter really can be a tease. He can look like an NFL star on one play and then look dismal the next three plays. I do not know if it is him, the play calling, or lack of a big play receiver, but this offense continues to be very inconsistent. Walter puts up big yardage numbers but his completion percentage last year was only 52.5%. Not what you would expect from a big name QB. He went just 18-for-37 (48.6%) and was sacked three times versus an inferior UTEP team in the season opener. At least two of his passes should have been picked off. Head coach Koetter after the game said he felt the offense was out of sync all night. Not what you would expect against a UTEP defense that has been one of the nations worst in recent years. ASU lost top CB RJ Oliver (foot) for the year prior to season opener. Starting safety Ricardo Stewart sat out the opener and is "?" for this game. Starting OL Brandon Rodd suffered a knee injury vs UTEP and is out for the season. Starting center Drew Hodgdon (foot) is also listed as "?" for this. The Sun Devils have struggled on the road under Koetter, going 7-15 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS a dog. The big question for Northwestern is if they can recover from the heartbreaking OT loss at TCU. They showed a lot of character in that game. With two extra days to prepare and playing in their home opener they should be ready to go.
Penn State -1 over Boston College
The Nittany Lions could not wait for this season to begin and they came out hitting on all cylinders versus Akron in their season opener. Surely on the road at BC will be a much tougher task, but Akron features NFL bound QB Charlie Frye and will be a tough out for any MAC team this season. The 48-10 margin of victory and fashion in which it was done was impressive. Senior QB Zack Mills is completely healthy again and the quarterback and receiver issues from last season are long gone. Sophomore running back tandem of Austin Scott and Tony Hunt looked superb in first game. Junior QB/RB/WR Michael Robinson is a great all-purpose threat. The defense returns 7 starters and looked much better also. They have some good young talent on that side of the ball. Boston College is coming off a lackluster 19-11 win at Ball State in their opener. They benefitted from a kickoff return for a TD or the game might have been even closer. BC suffered some key injuries in the game losing top RB LV Whitworth and starting LT Jeremy Trueblood for at least this game. With the injury to Trueblood, BC now only has one returning starter on their offensive line and two of the losses were 1st team Big East picks last year. It is the first time in O'Brien's tenure that their are no seniors on the line. If the questionable line is unable to establish a successful running game, BC will be forced to throw and have been inconsistent doing so since the beginning of last year. Starting QB Paul Peterson went 12-for-23 for 135 yards vs a weak Ball State team in opener. BC continues to be plagued by penalties (11 for 72 yards in opener) and feature true freshman at both kicker and punter. PSU will be playing its first revenge game of the season. Some big turnovers early on and poor run defense led to PSU's demise in a 27-14 loss to BC in Happy Valley. Look for them to turn the tables this year.
Notre Dame +13.5 over Michigan
The Irish disappointed badly, particularly on offense, in their season opener at BYU. A team who performs poorly on national television the week prior often is a good value the next week. I believe that to be the case here, especially since college teams are said to improve the most from game one to game two. Notre Dame easily could have been looking past BYU to this game and a chance to avenge last years 38-0 loss in Ann Arbor. The Notre Dame defense looked in good shape and the offense has too much talent to not come alive soon. Michigan's 43-10 season opening win over Miami, Ohio is a bit misleading. This game was tied 0-0 in the 2nd quarter and Michigan led 24-10 with the Redhawks driving inside the 20 early on in the 4th quarter before an interception runback blew the game open. Michigan only outgained Miami by 24 yards and only notched one more first down. This is despite 7 Redhawk turnovers. The Wolverines are a very strong team but their current QB issues will put them at a major disadvantage in this big road game. Projected starter Gutierrez injured a shoulder two days before the opener and true freshman Chad Henne got the start. Henne made a few big plays (14-for-24, 2 TD, 1 INT) but with only 30 practices and one game under his belt, play calling will be limited. Not to mention playing on the road at Notre Dame is a much different animal than a home game vs Miami Ohio. Gutierrez is listed as questionable for the game but it would be his first collegiate start as well. One way or another, the Irish should keep this game close. The early action appears to be on Michigan, we may end up getting +14 here.
Continued...
