BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 20
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
Despite finishing way ahead of Chicago in the NL East standings last season, the Cardinals lost a bundle in head to head games with the Cubs (8-11, -$800). Now they come into Wrigley to take on an improved Chicago team that has a pair of lefthanded starters off to very good starts. Rich Hill (2-0, +$210) won?t get a turn unless weather intervenes, but Ted Lilly (2.37 ERA) is due. The Cardinals were a disaster against lefthanders last season (22-34, -$2515) and in four starts vs. lefties this year they?ve averaged a paltry 2.8 runs per game. BEST BET: Lilly.
Washington at Florida (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Nationals may steal a win here and there, but the franchise is in sorry shape right now (5.23 team ERA, .231 team BA) and it?s hard to see them having much success against the Marlins, a team loaded with young quality pitchers and one that is averaging 6.0 runs per game so far. Washington narrowly averted a sweep at RFK to start the season, but it?s hard to see them managing more than a single win in this series, if that. But prices will be steep on the home team so caution is advised. BEST BET: None.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Braves are in first place and they did take 2 out of 3 at Turner Field earlier this month, but the Mets have the lowest team ERA in the majors (2.69) and are averaging a healthy 5.4 runs scored per game so far. They beat Atlanta in head to head play in 2006 (11-7, +300) and we like their lefthanders against a visitor that is only averaging 4.2 runs per game vs. southpaws. The rainouts along the east coast make projecting starters difficult, but if Glavine (3.12) or Oliver Perez (3.73) is available, we?ll take a shot. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Braves.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Reds have the makings of a very solid rotation, with Kyle Lohse chipping in a sensational start vs. the Cubs last weekend. They now have a foursome of quality righthanders, and could be a factor in the NL Central, a division very much up for grabs. At 3-8, the Phillies are in disarray right now (5.33 team ERA, worst in the NL) and from the looks of things, they?ll be fortunate to salvage a single victory here. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Phillies.
Houston at Milwaukee (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Brewers had trouble with this team in 2006 (only 5-10, -$625), and while they show a great deal of promise, it?s still hard to gauge how they?ll fare over the long haul. They are only averaging 4.4 runs per game, and we like what we?ve seen from Jason Jennings in his first two starts with Houston (3.00 ERA). The change in settings may improve his stats considerably, and this was a pitcher who posted a 3.78 ERA in 32 starts last year, 15 of which took place at Coors Field. Excellent value when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Jennings.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Padres actually lost the season series against the Rockies last year (9-10, -$2850, but they?ve been a terrific road team, particularly vs. righthanders (+$1835), so it?s hard to pass them up. The Rockies last money vs. righthanders in 2006 (-$1090 overall) and are averaging a measly 3.6 runs per game against them in ?07. We?ll play these accordingly. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
Arizona at San Francisco (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The D?backs have a new look, and at 8-4 the early returns on this team are encouraging. They turned a small profit on the road last year (+$140) and are 5-1 as visitors vs. righthanders already this season (+$400 with 5.5 runs per game). The Giants have stumbled out of the gate, and though several starters have looked decent, Arizona has the edge. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. righthanders.
Pittsburgh at L.A. Dodgers (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Pirates caused a stir when they swept the Astros at Minute Maid Park to open the season. But since then it?s been business as usual, dropping 6 of 7 and earning a share of last place. The Dodgers are getting excellent pitching right now (3.15 team ERA), and the Pirates are averaging a dismal 3.1 runs per game on the road vs. righties. They were a terrible road team in 2007 (-$2150), and they?ll be up against Brad Penny (.068 ERA) and Bret Tomko (0.00), both of whom are flashing top form. BEST BET: Penny/Tomko.
Chicago W. Sox at Detroit (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Tigers had a lot of trouble with this team in 2006 (7-12, -$560) but they are seeing the emergence of Nate Robertson as one of the top lefthanders in the majors (1.80 ERA in three starts so far . . . 3.84 in 32 starts last year). He?s doing a great deal to help Detroit overcome the absence of Kenny Rogers, and should fare well against a Chicago team that lost a bundle vs. lefthanders last year (Sox only 31-34, -$1255 in ?07). BEST BET: Robertson.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The last time the Yankees invaded Fenway they dealt the Bosox a drubbing, sweeping a five game set last August and effectively ending their post-season aspirations. Look for some heavy-handed payback in Beantown this weekend. New York?s rotation is in disarray, while the home team has the lowest team ERA in the league (2.79), thanks to standout performances by Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Weather is screwing up the order of the rotation, but expect to see three of these guys on the hill this weekend. BEST BET: Schilling/Becket/Matsuzaka/Wakefield.
Toronto at Baltimore (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Blue Jays are not getting the kind of pitching they were hoping for, with all hurlers except Halladay off to lackluster starts (4.33 team ERA, 10th in the AL). Toronto suffered outside of the Rogers Centre in 2006, particularly vs. righthanders (-$1175) and they?ll be squaring off against hard throwing Daniel Cabrera, who?s off to a good start in 2007 (3.66 ERA in three games). The O?s are 4-2 (+$200) at Camden Yards so far. BEST BET: Cabrera.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Tribe beat up on the Devil Rays last season (6-1, +$435), and they seem to be on track at 6-3, following a string of rainouts and being forced to play some home games in Milwaukee. Tampa?s pitching is as bad as ever (6.41 ERA, by far the worst in the majors), and Scott Kazmir, their only quality starter, is not scheduled to appear. They are sinking fast, so the visitor should be able to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Oakland at Texas (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
Both these teams are looking a bit sluggish at the plate right now (Athletics .223 team BA, Rangers .233), but the A?s are getting outstanding work from the starting rotation (2.95 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the league). Oakland made money on the road last year, particularly vs. righthanders (+$1230) and they?ll get a steady diet of them vs. the all-righty Texas rotation. The lost money at Arlington in 2006 (-$1385), so the chances for the visitor to take at least 2 out of 3 are very good. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
Minnesota at Kansas City (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
The Twins are certainly disappointed following a lackluster homestand in which they dropped 2 of 3 to the Yankees and could only manage a split of four games with the lowly Devil Rays. They?d like to fatten up against Kansas City, but they won?t have Santana on the hill this weekend, and the rest of the starters are a mixed bag at best. The Royals made money vs. righties last season (+$2635), and they could have a good weekend taking on inept journeyman Sidney Ponson (8.19 ERA in two starts) and the equally unappealing Boof Bonser (6.97 in two starts). BEST BET: Royals vs. Ponson & Bonser.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (3) 20th, 21st, 22nd
After numerous rainouts, the Mariners ended the week at 5-3, not bad considering they rank at or near the bottom of the AL heap in both pitching (4.79 team ERA) and hitting (.214 team BA). The Angels have a decided edge in pitching right now (3.15 team ERA), but watch out for Felix Hernandez (+$260), who has yet to be scored on in 17 innings pitched. Stay away from LA when he takes the mound, but the rest of the Seattle rotation is fair game. BEST BET: Angels in all games unless opposed by F. Hernandez.
