Raymond's Thread

[Junior44]

MJ - I know you closed the thread and probably for good reason, and feel free to close of delete this one as well, but I have someting to say and as most of you know, I've pretty passionate when I have something I wanna get off my chest. The following is not a bash against anybody, instead it's a little insight on what I think this forum is about

So, Raymond posted his service plays after the fact. My take on this is: BIG F'IN DEAL!!......Some of you guys just don't get it and I've pretty much came to the conclusion, you never will. This site is NOT about posting winners. Sure, winners are nice and very satisfying short term. But, the true value in this site is it's long-term effect. Some of you have absolutely closed yourselves off to the opportunity to LEARN. Once you do that, you are finished. One of my favorite lines: "The guy who knows everything, knows nothing.".....The same holds true in the arena of sports betting. I've been gambling close to 15 years and I learn something new EVERY DAY. gsp's post hit the nail right on the head. It's not about "missing" a play that might have been given out (service play or not). If Ray had given that play out before hand, and everybody held out their hand and TOOK, we'd all be happy for the day. But what about tommorow, and the next day. What then? Sit around and wait for more winners from others? Instead of bitching and complaining, how bout going back and taking a look at WHY the Mets were the play. I mean, after all, all the info was there if you looked yourself. Ray wasn't privvy to any inside information that we weren't.

Personally, I learn (again, I LEARN) much, much more from my losses than I do from my wins. When I lose a game that I have capped, I want to know WHY. Where did I go wrong and more importanly, what can I do to cut the error level down. Alot of people just bitch and moan and lay out a "Mussina Sucks!"......Well, I don't think anybody is happy with a loss. I know I'm not. BUT, after I'm done with the initiall blow to my bank roll, I don't turn on Hogan's Hero's. I take a look at the play again AFTER the fact and, by god, there is usually something in there that I can use down the road to make myself better at my art. Some of you should really think about giving it a shot.........you just might surprise yourself.

 

[Keyser Soze]

AMEN!

 

[taoist]

...excellent post, Jr.


Give a man a winner and you feed him for a day.
Teach a man to find his own winners, and you'll feed him for a lifetime.


...gotta run. going to learn something new for today....

 

[Mizzou]

Very well said.

Let's kick butt tonight fellas.


JB

 

[gsp]

Same as Keyer Soze

 

[ferdville]

Well said, Junior. Right on the button. I earned my gambling stripes playing horses and I always made it a point to figure out HOW or WHY I didn't have the winner. I could have taken the easy way out and bitched about a bad ride or bad racing luck, but I tried to find out what I missed. Sometimes there simply is no logical explanation - but most of the time there is at least a scintilla of truth to be found. That was more than 40 years ago and I try to do the same with sports, if for no other reason than to gain an insight in to why I took the losing side. There is no one here that can't learn something new about gambling every day. I am happy to have so many knowledgeable people here to help me. The fact that someone put a service play up after the fact would only be of interest to me. I'd like to figure out why they liked that side so much. No one at this forum owes me anything. They can put up plays before, during or after a game for all I care. I'll evaluate what I read and take it for what it is worth. Thankfully, I believe that 90% of the people that visit this forum do the same.

 

[MadJack]

junior, the reason i closed the thread is because it was getting off topic. this is a busy forum this time of year and i didn't see the point of that thread dominating the thinking of this forum.

the reason i left it in this forum is because it was on topic when it started. actually, i didn't know what the hell to do with it except i did know that people look for info on todays games and that thread was yesterday's news. i think i did the right thing for the majority.

this thread is actually off topic too and i'll move it to general where everybody can bash each others' heads in if they want to.

know what i mean?

also, if an unknown poster (junior member) came in here and posted picks after the fact (all winners), can you imagine how he/she would be treated in here? i think you do, and, i don't ever see the point about posting picks/winners after the fact, but that's just me. why would anybody post after the fact? why? what can we learn from that? but again, that's just me and i have nothing against it in this forum at all.

i had no problem with the thread. some did, some didn't. no big deal to me.

 

[Junior44]

MJ, no problem........i totally understand why you closed the thread. I also understand why you moved mine. Just wanted to get my point across and hopefully somebody saw some value in it. As far as what can we learn from posting a game after the fact? Same thing we can learn from reading the score in the newspaper the next day. Add that to the fact that I personally believe that Ray is a tremendous baseball handicapper. But, again, that's just me.

Sorry for the offtopic post

Rockies 5*

 

[Anders]

Get it right Jr

ROCKEIS V BIG

Just pulling yer tit of course Ray

 

[dawgball]

Junior

I agree with almost all of the statements in your post. You said you can learn more from the games that you lose. i disagree on this point. After a win, I think one should step back and evaluate what they saw RIGHT about a game as well. This information is as important as seeing what you saw WRONG in a loser.

If the outcome of a game is the same as you predicted, but the reasons are completely different--there lies a problem in your handicapping. The next time you play the angle that you were on--it is likely that it will be on the wrong side of the coin.

Everything else in your post is right on the money, and I think this forum gets clouded by picks with no reason very often. The NFL fourm that 4bubba did last year was one of the better forums that I have seen. Granted, I think it is that way because the Moderator only had one area to monitor and could keep closer tabs.

Also, Anders write-ups on the Off the Wall sports are fantastic. Golf forum the same way. But these are not your mainstream sports, it's not as flooded with people trying to sell you their picks, and there are not as many newcomers that tout themselves then get out.

Great article, and if there are suggestions that would help improve these things in the other forums, I am sure Jack is open for discussion.

All in all, this is the best board that I have found.

 

[acehistr8]

I couldnt agree more with all of these posts. While I am not as long in the tooth as many ;-) I have been handicapping and studying sports for the last 12 or so years and I learn to love it more every day that goes by.

So recently I decided it might be fun to have my own page. Would give me a chance to do some writing as well as venture into some off topic stuff. I do web consulting as a side business, so I hope it will continue to be as fun as it has been so far. Anyway. my picks have tanked and shown a loss of $1600 in the last 8 days. At $200-$400 units, really thats not the end of the world. Well, I've gotten 3 emails so far basically saying F you, who are you, why do you think you're better than anyone else, take off etc. This after following me for less than 30 plays. Thirty? And you want me to go F myself? For those of you who think that is a statistically significant measure of worth for a handicapper, maybe you should consider another profession or consider getting a life. I never claimed to be great, never asked to be paid and never wanted to do more than contribute here as a writer and follower of this board.

I agree with dawgball though, I try to learn as much as I can not only from my losses, but also from my wins. What did I see in this game that I can apply the next dozen times I see the same trend, and will it be as obvious to me as it was this time?

I guess what I'm trying to say is, we are all here to learn. I'm doing this to make money, to learn, and really to enjoy the information I glean from the people here. I also love to write and this was my way of trying to branch out in that area.

If you dont like someones plays, dont follow them. If you dont like what they write dont read them. Its a free country.

 

[SixFive]

I just read the aforementioned closed thread. Pipeville said the Mets play was posted when they were up 5-1. I assume that was accurate as several others agreed. For monitoring sake or to prove the bashers wrong, why not post the plays right after the first pitch when it can't be bet anymore but still be monitored? Posting over an hour into the game sounds like a Jim Feist/Jeff Allen trick to me. I don't see it served any purpose. In fact, I think it's free advertising. Lots of people have Tuesday GOY winners on Wednesday morning, just go check out wagertalk or call Stu Feiner or Kevin Duffy, they win GOYs every night according to their scorephones the next day.

That said, I think RAYMOND has helped out lots of folks here in the past, and he seems to be a generous dude. I've seen too many posts in the past thanking him for things he has done. I don't think anybody can dispute that he's a nice guy. We're just all guilty of bad judgement at times, and everybody here knows the tactics of the scamdicappers, and this is one of them.

Poor fletcher, how does your name always get dragged in to these threads, lmao!?

 

[ferdville]

I think your post is written in an overall positive rather than negative tone; though I don't really think Raym showed bad judgment here Anyone that has read his posts over time at this forum knows better than to put him in the same category as Feist, Warren, Feiner, etc. I do see how someone relatively new to MJ's could misconstrue the whole deal, and on that point, I will agree with Six-Five and Jack.
I sometimes wonder why guys like Raymond, Fletcher and Nolan Dalla even bother to post here at times. These are just three examples of knowledgeable gamblers that take their time and energy to pass on thoughts and information to the rest of us. In many cases, I would guess that some of the information they passed on has been purchased in statistical format at a price few of us would pay. Yet it never fails that someone is lurking out there ready to blaze away with criticism. Nobody likes to be bashed; some have thicker skin than others. I hope we don't wake up one day and find out that some of MJ's best handicappers have simply had enough of the BS.

 

[acehistr8]

I hope we don't wake up one day and find out that some of MJ's best handicappers have simply had enough of the BS.

Simply no better way to say it. The day guys like those 3 start to seek better places to hang out is the day we all lose in a very big way.

 

[pipeville]

Guys,
I see that I went away for a day with the kids to Lake George and touched off a brouhaha. That wasn't my intention. I was just stating the fact that as a junior member, if I had posted a game after it started as a major selection, I would take extensive grief for it, and one of our best handicappers on the site should be held to the same standard. I wasn't angry, wasn't bashing, just an observation.

However, I would like to extend an apology to Fletcher. It was totally inappropriate of me to lump him in via the website service with Raymond because this post had absolutely nothing to do with him. And he's right, if I had done my research I would've known that Ray was no longer affiliated with the site. He's right, I'm wrong and he deserves an apology.

And I hope that there are no hard feelings with Raymond. Wasn't trying to bash him, just help police the site. Cuz if we don't police ourselves, we won't continue to have this great site to share information.
Good luck to all.
Pipeville

 

[ferdville]

I think you have done an admirable job of trying to set the record straight and I applaud you for that. However, I disagree with one of your comments. A junior member with a handful of posts cannot be viewed in the same manner as someone like Raymond or Fletcher that has thousands of posts. I realize that is potentially a politically incorrect theory, but in all honesty, such logic is the way of the world. This forum tends to be rather harsh on newbies that prance in here (not referring to you) pounding their chests proclaiming themselves the next coming of Arnold Rothstein, Jimmy the Greek, or what have you. We tend to give a little more rope to those like Ray and Fletcher that have contributed mightily in the past. Most of the problems seem to arise when the newer members misconstrue or don't understand the history behind some of the posters - and that cannot be helped. There are very few areas in society where rookies and veterans are accorded equal treatment. It certainly doesn't happen in the world of sports, which is, theoretically, what this site concerns itself with on a daily basis. Madjack's is simply a microcosm of society as a whole anyway, why expect it to be any different?

 

[djv]

It has been mentioned do we learn from our losses. We should and from our winners also. I like to grade them this way. I won my capping made sence use it again. I won but was lucky. Did the luck make any differance. I lost what part of what I did failed. Can I use it same process again or just watch a few games. I lost because I was unlucky. Did that cause me to loose or have no affect on the play. Some person here had the percentage broken down here once. Believe he said I win 50% because I should. My capping is that good. I win another 5% to 6% on luck. I take that 55/56% and do not worry about why I lost the other 44/45% of the time. I disagree then and still do now. If you can find a flaw in your capping that increase your wins just another 1%. It's worth looking for.
Someone else said here a person who has posted just a few post can not be viewed in same light as someone with many say over 1000. Tell you what you get some person in here that post about 8 to 10 post hits about 75% winners. Then just stops. I can here it now. Where that person go man could he/she pick winners. Come back please. Sounds sad does it not but it does happen. So the number of posts may not matter some do good and bad both. Some times many post are about many things other then capping. So hard to tell.

 

[Junior44]

Very nice views guys.........THESE are the types of threads that are truly of value. A couple things here, hope I can address them all.

dawgball - you are absolutely right. In fact, they are mirror images of one another. I just chose to focus on plays that lose, as most people just get bitter and don't allow themselves to regather themselves to see what went wrong. With that being said, going back and seeing what your did RIGHT in handicapping a game is just as valuable. Also this statement, "If the outcome of a game is the same as you predicted, but the reasons are completely different--there lies a problem in your handicapping." is as important as any in this thread. We all like to win. But did we win becuase of luck/chance -or- because the game panned out exactly like we thought it would. Big difference.

ace - I hear ya and that's part of being a service. I'm willing to bet that 90% of the people in this forum have no clue that I have a service. So is the statement, "well, if you are so good, why do you need to sell your picks" Well, many people have many different answers to that question. Some people actually AREN'T good and need to sell (more like market) their picks. Some people ARE good and feel they have a right to sell (like you said, it's a free country). Some people are good, spend ALOT of time each day doing something they love (handicapping) and truly want to help others win. I suppose I fall somewhere in the latter catagory. Why not just give them out for free? I did, for about 3 years. But, if anybody's been to the baseball forum lately, there's about 450 guys giving out free picks. And that's just 1 forum, not to mention all the free pick sites. I decided quite awhile ago that my value to this forum does not lay in "giving out picks", it lies in threads such as these.

ferdville - To answer your statement, "I hope we don't wake up one day and find out that some of MJ's best handicappers have simply had enough of the BS.".........Unfortunately, this has already happened. I could name 25 people that have left for one reason or another over the last 3 or 4 years or so, some on their own, some pushed, some that have had enough. But this forum is no different than any others in that respect. They are dynamic. The populus of this forum back in 1998 compared to the present are not one and the same.

A couple other things: It pains me to see a junior member get blasted. We've all been a junior member at one time. If somebody has something to say, I, for one, want to hear it. THEN, i can decide if it's worthwhile or not. What I don't want to see (and most would agree) is somebody new getting run off before they have a chance to get their feet wet. After all, we may be running off somebody who has ALOT to offer this forum. As far as new guys spouting off, pounding their chests, etc, anybody that has been around here for awhile should know better and take it with a grain of salt. They will either change or won't be here for long, usually the latter. Anybody that knows Raymond and has followed his posts knows the guy is a straight-shooter. He is here to help. Period.

Also, alot of folks here seem to have blinders on to certain things. Dawg, you brought up another great point, something that is not mentioned very often. I'll say it in caps so emphasize: IF YOU ARE NOT READING ANDERS OFF THE WALL POSTS AND STANLEY'S GOLF PICKS/ANALYSIS/INSIGHT, YOU ARE MISSING OUT BIG TIME. These guys and the guys that contribute to their threads (DTB, Ian, etc) know their stuff. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that I don't think I've seen a guy who is as dominant in 1 particular sport as Stan is in golf.

 

[djv]

Junior I would like to add a couple more. In the motor race section. I have seen most make more money from 1837 and a couple others in motor sports then any other sport here. We are talking big numbers. Many don't even go there and look. I now why not everyone likes raceing. Look at the hard work Huck puts into the stock car races with others helping to. Im not trying to miss anyone. Many are adding there info and doing well. I mean real well.