Round 1 plays (4pts):
Jerry Kelly to beat Tim Clark +100 @ Bet365
A 5th place finish last time out was unexpected - it was just his second top-15 finish in the past year - but he has still missed the cut in five of his last eight events, so I will continue to oppose him. No such form worries for Kelly who finished 3rd last time as that was a continuation of the good form that he has shown this year. He leads Clark 11-6-0 h2h over the past year in both rd1 and over 72 holes, so these odds look rather generous.
Aaron Baddeley to beat Erik Compton -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]
With four missed cuts in his last six starts, Compton is worth opposing despite having a career year that includes 2nd in the U.S. Open. Baddeley has missed just one of his last six cuts, including a 4th place finish in his penultimate start. With no course form, the difference in course form and Compton's record of missed cuts in all six previous visits to Canada on the PGA Tour, Baddeley is the obvious pick.
Charl Schwartzel to beat Graeme McDowell -105 @ Bet365
McDowell has finished 6th, 1st and 9th in his last three events, but they have all been on the European Tour. On the PGA Tour, he hasn't secured a top-20 finish in over four months, whereas Schwartzel has recored two in his last three. He also finished ahead of McDowell in the Open Championship last week and with the h2h record 14-4-2 in Schwartzel's favour in strokeplay events since the start of last year, he deserved to be the favourite, particularly on this Tour.
