Real Tennis...The ATP Champinship

[alb]

After the WTA exhibition crap in LA it's nice to get some competitive stuff to watch. Win or lose, at least it will be entertaining. The first two matches already proved my point.

First bet sees Davydenko at a nice price (+221) to beat Agassi. I just think Agassi is here as a gesture as his carreer winds down. Don't get me wrong, he earned/deserves this spot and I don't expect a phony performance like the chicks were doing, but he is too short in price for this level of competition. I priced him (Aggasi) at -175.

 

[Anders]

Hey mate, passed y'day , did play Ivan +600 to win the tourney on Sat (NZ time) but won't count it in the season's record as not posted...
Phew, long year but worth the grind...
Agree on the Davy price, has some value..

Season to Date: 188-246 +63.57 units

Week One: 6-6 +3.95 units
Week Two: 7-3 +10.79 units
Week Three: 8-10 +1.41 units
Week Four: 5-3 +5.95 units
week Five: 7-5 +8.85 units
Week Six: 6-5 +4.43 units
Week Seven: 6-12 -3.20 units
Week Eight: 5-8 -2.29 units
Week Nine: 13-8 +6.40 units
Week 10: 5-5 + 1.82 units
Week 11: 6-6 +0.02 units
Week 12: 6-8 +0.04 units
Week 13: 2-3 +0.91 units
Week 14: 13-16 +16.70 units
Week 15: 8-8 +17.73 units
Week 16: 3-12 -17.52 units
Week 17: 10-23 -4.34 units
Week 18: 12-11 +7.27 units
Week 19: 7-10 +1.43 units
Week 20: 6-4 +5.55 units
Week 21: 1-9 -10.27 units
Week 22: 5-3 +7.79 units
week 23: 1-7 -10.42 units
Week 24: 20-14 +23.87 units
Week 25: 3-6 -1.34 units
Week 26: 1-0 +2.25 units
Week 27: 5-6 +1.47 units
Week 28: 0-6 -6.00 units
Week 29: 4-6 + 1.08 units
Week 30: 1-8 -6.59 units
Week 31: 4-7 -0.91 units
Week 32: 2-7 -3.30 units


SSB 70-103 +5.46 units

Shanghai

Davydenko +214 over Agassi (1 unit)

GL troops

 

[Anders]

one for the board...

WTD

1-0 +2.04 units

Ljubicic +250 o Federer (1)

tossing up on Coria, will post later if it's a play...

GL

 

[alb]

I was thinking of the taking Ljubicic in this spot too. He's been playing superb for at least a month now. I can't see The Fed going all out for this one since he is almost a certainty to get to the semi's. I am also hoping that Ljubicic wins this one so that the odds on The Fed will be good in the final where he will probably be facing Lubie again.

 

[Anders]

Passing on Coria btw...

 

[alb]

Well it went down to a final set tie-break but The Fed prevails in the end. Entertaining and you could see The Fed was using this match to try some new asrenal (his coach advised him to start trying the net more....serve and volley). Now here's what's scary. The Fed never broke a sweat and had never left third gear. Lubie was serving for his life nearly every game and looked quite tired. If he couldn't beat him in this scenario, then he will not beat him in the final. Gonzalez is the only on guy on the list who may have a chance (slim) at beating Federrer.

On that note, Gonzalez should handle Puerta easily but the odds reflect this so I don't think I can play it. I have Gaudio as a big play to beat Davydenko. I priced this as close to a pick yet I just got a massive +175 (PaddyPower if you can get it).

 

[Anders]

same thought as me... good line too...

WTD

1-1 +1.04 units

Gaudio +166 over Davydenko (1)

 

[peteyboy]

Alb,
Think it makes any sense to lay the wood on the Fed at 1-3? Thanks

 

[alb]

It's hard to say Petey. He should win but he's wearing a visible ankle brace and his mobility is slightly limited....although you would never know it. If he faces Lubie again, you might get 1/4 anyway. Then again.....I would price him at 1/10. You may as well wait, back him in the semi and then parlay that in the final. You may get a shorter price but let's make sure the ankle holds up against an agile Coria. Personally I bet him before the tourney at 1.73 (exchanges) and only got that because of his surgery/lay-off (and Nadal, Roddick, Agassi were on the list). But I will lay it back in an instant if I see him take a fall or roll on the ankle. Just look at the pull-outs so far....nobody wants to risk injury for this tournament. However, they may have played hurt had there been no Fed in the tournament.

 

[tt boy]

FVCKIN Gaudio dropped the 1st set without much fight :scared

 

[tt boy]

Gaudio should have stayed in bed :scared

prick goes down 3-6 4-6 :cursin:

 

[alb]

Boy....do you ever got that right!

Gaudio's new motto is; 'If it ain't clay, I can't play'.

Gaudio was 5-0 over Davydenko losing just one set prior to today.....all on clay. I watched today as Davydenko bitch-slapped Gaudio all over the court. Don't let the scores fool you as it could have been 6-1, 6-1. And yes it looked like he just quit.

"Go home and tell your mother your a failure!"

 

[alb]

We need another nice priced winner. We have Coria to beat Federer at huge odds but I can't bring myself to playing it. The Fed is going for a record breaking year....he has to beat 82-3 set by John McEnroe. He has 3 losses already but winning his last 3 matches of the year will put him over the top. Supposedly, his camp says they are very much interested in getting this record.

Nalbandian over Ljubicic @ +227. I am taking this only as a value play. Ljubicic has had a bit of a gruelling end to the season and shown sign's of exhaustion since the quarters of his last tournament. I priced him at about -175 for this one. Nalbandian is solid and will give you a run for your money at these odds. This match is a win-your-in to see who joins The Fed in the semi's.

 

[alb]

Nalbandian comes thru surprisingly with ease. Although he played great, I have to think it was fatigue that done in Lubie.

A small play on Puerta +400 over Davydenko. A meaningless game, Davydenko will have probably want to conserve his energy for when he gets 'Punk'd' by Nalbandian in the semi-final.

 

[Anders]

Good call on Nalby...
Agree on Puerta, no motivation here for the Russki

Puerta +397 o Davy (1)

 

[alb]

Okay let me get this straight. Gaudio could not catch up to Davydenko's return shots. But 2 days later he could run down Gonzalez's rifle shots that come back about 20% faster than Davydenko's. How does that work? I saw both matches and I'm befuddled. Gonzalez pissed away his game blowing his serve for the win and blowing 3 match points.....which leaves Gaudio to face The Fed and no upset that I will gamble on. I thought that maybe the Gonzalez power might test The Fed and his ankle....thus opening the door for a possible upset....but not to be.

The Fed has lost the 2nd set in each of the first 3 games. The only thing worth betting in this match is Fed 2-1 @ 6/1 odds.

Nalbandian is a bit of an underpriced favourite to beat Davydenko @ -146. He's not a huge bet :scared ...but I'm putting some respectable coin on him because a repeat performance of any of his round robin games makes him a comfortable winner. But I do realise that it is not Davydenko's fault he had no competitiion so he may have a little more game to offer......and he'll need it.

 

[alb]

Nalbandian gets the job done 6-0, 7-5. :clap: :clap:

Geez....Gaudio changes his game more than my wife changes her mood. Once again he is bitch-slapped all over the court...quite embarrassing really as he loses 6-0, 6-0 against The Feds warm up mode. Which again makes me wonder how he could rundown the faster bullets of Gonzalez just yesterday.

The Final;

The Fed has lost 3 matches this year and 2 were on clay which isn't real tennis anyway. You don't play basketball on gravel or hockey in mud.

The only 'real' game he lost was to Safin in the Aussie open at the beginning of the year. And that was one helluva performance it took from Safin. No way Nalbandian could ever play that good. But Federer won't play as good as that yet either.

In the first Round Robin (Federer v Nalbandian), Fed was asked before the game how he expected the outcome to be. He told the reporter that he expected Nalbandian to win.....because of his physical condition (ankle) and lay-off. Nalbandian was up a break in the 3rd set but fell just short. Lubie brought Fed to a 3rd set tie-breaker, then received an ass-whupping by Nalbandian.

Nalbandian has gotten better each game....with an exception of about a 6 game lull in todays 2nd set caused by his harping on a crucial bad overrule call and eventually umpire warning.

A week ago I thought Ljubicic was the only guy with a chance to beat Fed and maybe Gonzalez if the ankle caused problems. But I haven't seen Fed get tested properly and if he stays in 3rd gear against the current Nalbandian form, he will be in trouble.

I still think The Fed wins but I priced him at -380 in this spot which leaves value with Nalbandian (+550). It may be worth an an interest wager. Personally I'm going to lay Federer on the exchanges for a large amount at about 1.15 with the intention of 'locking in' a guaranteed profit once it's live betting. I'm sure there will be an oppurtunity when Nalbandian is ahead or they are tied 1-1 or 2-2.

Good Luck!

See ya next year.

 

[Anders]

1-2 -0.96 units

Fed 3-2 over Nalby +700 (1)

GL

 

[alb]

Wow....is anyone else watching this final? What a game. The Fed has slipped into 4th gear and he is finally breaking a sweat.......Nalbandian playing great yet losing the mental battle (2 tie-breaks, 2nd was 12-10). Unfortunately Nalbandian has been robbed on wrong calls 3 times, 2 of which mattered or else its easliy 1-1...unfair that the greatest tennis player ever also gets the breaks!

 

[alb]

Just an example of why you need 'live-betting' access in tennis. I just backed The Fed at 2.06 after laying him at 1.15 for a nice guaranteed profit.