So I follow almost every mlb game, I practically have situational odds engraved into my brain (example - runner on 2nd two outs the avg run expectancy is .33. Same situation zero out, 1.10 runs) things like that.
So in the past 24 hours not only were there two games with literally 50 to 1 outcomes within 3-4 outs, but naturally, I was on the wrong side of both.
On Monday night, I had the chisox +1.5 as one leg of a 4-team parlay at +789 wagered 3x. Its not a bad beat because seattle covered the -1.5. It’s a bad beat b/c in the bottom of the 7th inning with chi leading 3-0 and seattle 7 or 8 outs left to work with, i took seattle over 0.5 runs for the game at -150.
Start of the bottom 8th, down 4-0 no outs no one on base, the win % for seattle was 3.5% or so. The chances of scoring 4 runs was 1.4%. The chances of scoring 6 or more, the amount needed to cover -1.5 is about the same as the rockies winning the NL pennant in 2024. Even at 4-1, bases loaded with two outs later that inning, the seattle money line is +750 or +800. And the expected addt’l runs in the inning is about 0.8.
The ninth inning grand slam walk off is whatever, its more the 8th inning events that are nearly incalculable.
Oh well it happens. Betting against the chisox when they have a lead is a strategy i often employ myself.
Fast forward to Tuesday evening, I’m literally having a beer with my neighbor and explaining what happened in seattle to kill my 4-leg parlay and what the odds of that outcome - a seattle 4 run victory, were or even a 2-run or victory at all late in the game.
Little did i kmow lightening was about to strike twice.
I had the nats at detroit +120 for the game and in the 2nd inning i took the Nats +140 on the 5th inning 3-way win / draw / win money line.
Its 3-0 nats bottom 5th. Pretty similar to the game from monday right? Actually FAR MORE astronomical in terms of outcome likelihood. As they came to bat, detroit had a 3.7% chance of being ahead /winning the first 5.
It gets better. Fly ball out to center to start, 1 out. Det F5 money line +7500, run expectancy for the inning 0.25, odds of scoring 4 runs 0.4%.
then a walk, and an infield pop up.
So 3-0 nats, 2 outs, runner on 1st. 99.1% chance of being ahead after 5 for detroit.
Then an error by the pitcher, and a walk, bases loaded two outs. Still a 10:1 money line and 0.7$ run expectancy for the inning.
Riley Greene triples, and it turns into a little league homerun after a throwing error allows him to score. 4-3 detroit after trailing 3-0 with a runner on 1st and 2 outs.
The BEST part of this one is they did it with ONE HIT!!! And that hit was NOT a grand slam true homerun!
So two events that occur truthfully 15 or 20 times a season in ALL of mlb. The seattle game was actually not as mystifying after the detroit 5th inning tuesday.
Now given the practically zero percent chance of either outcome given the inning specific situations, what are the odds of being on the wrong end of BOTH in under 24 hours? Hahaha. Pretty good actually.
Glass half full? I did win a 5-teamer tuesday (clev, hou, arz, wash, lad) at +1845, and of course my single wash +120 position.
But lost a 4 teamer at +1641 by half a run (balt, miami, houston, over 8.5 clev / cincy)
bitching about bad beats without disclosing mitigating wins is lame.
So in the past 24 hours not only were there two games with literally 50 to 1 outcomes within 3-4 outs, but naturally, I was on the wrong side of both.
On Monday night, I had the chisox +1.5 as one leg of a 4-team parlay at +789 wagered 3x. Its not a bad beat because seattle covered the -1.5. It’s a bad beat b/c in the bottom of the 7th inning with chi leading 3-0 and seattle 7 or 8 outs left to work with, i took seattle over 0.5 runs for the game at -150.
Start of the bottom 8th, down 4-0 no outs no one on base, the win % for seattle was 3.5% or so. The chances of scoring 4 runs was 1.4%. The chances of scoring 6 or more, the amount needed to cover -1.5 is about the same as the rockies winning the NL pennant in 2024. Even at 4-1, bases loaded with two outs later that inning, the seattle money line is +750 or +800. And the expected addt’l runs in the inning is about 0.8.
The ninth inning grand slam walk off is whatever, its more the 8th inning events that are nearly incalculable.
Oh well it happens. Betting against the chisox when they have a lead is a strategy i often employ myself.
Fast forward to Tuesday evening, I’m literally having a beer with my neighbor and explaining what happened in seattle to kill my 4-leg parlay and what the odds of that outcome - a seattle 4 run victory, were or even a 2-run or victory at all late in the game.
Little did i kmow lightening was about to strike twice.
I had the nats at detroit +120 for the game and in the 2nd inning i took the Nats +140 on the 5th inning 3-way win / draw / win money line.
Its 3-0 nats bottom 5th. Pretty similar to the game from monday right? Actually FAR MORE astronomical in terms of outcome likelihood. As they came to bat, detroit had a 3.7% chance of being ahead /winning the first 5.
It gets better. Fly ball out to center to start, 1 out. Det F5 money line +7500, run expectancy for the inning 0.25, odds of scoring 4 runs 0.4%.
then a walk, and an infield pop up.
So 3-0 nats, 2 outs, runner on 1st. 99.1% chance of being ahead after 5 for detroit.
Then an error by the pitcher, and a walk, bases loaded two outs. Still a 10:1 money line and 0.7$ run expectancy for the inning.
Riley Greene triples, and it turns into a little league homerun after a throwing error allows him to score. 4-3 detroit after trailing 3-0 with a runner on 1st and 2 outs.
The BEST part of this one is they did it with ONE HIT!!! And that hit was NOT a grand slam true homerun!
So two events that occur truthfully 15 or 20 times a season in ALL of mlb. The seattle game was actually not as mystifying after the detroit 5th inning tuesday.
Now given the practically zero percent chance of either outcome given the inning specific situations, what are the odds of being on the wrong end of BOTH in under 24 hours? Hahaha. Pretty good actually.
Glass half full? I did win a 5-teamer tuesday (clev, hou, arz, wash, lad) at +1845, and of course my single wash +120 position.
But lost a 4 teamer at +1641 by half a run (balt, miami, houston, over 8.5 clev / cincy)
bitching about bad beats without disclosing mitigating wins is lame.
