Hey guys,
Have been mainly a lurker and haven't posted much this season but I just wanted to weigh in and get some opinions on the Thursday night game tomorrow.
Really like Jacksonville in this spot.
For starters, here are the margins of victory for the last 10 games between these two teams: 2, 7, 2, 3, 22, 27, 7, 8, 7, 3. That's 80% of the games being decided by 1 possesion (BTW, with the two blowouts it was one for each team). True, Indy is 7-3 SU in those 10, but the point is that the vast majority of the games between these 2 in the last 5 years have been close.
Add to that the fact that the most recent of these was a 2-point game earlier this at Indy.
Then there's the fact that Jax is coming off a tough loss to Miami at home and haven't lost 2 in row all year period, let alone 2 in a row at home.
Then there are the intangibles. Quite frankly, this is the Super Bowl for the Jags. At 7-6 they know that they have to run the table to go anywhere.
For the Colts, what does this game mean? Division title? Already locked up. Homefield advantage? Ditto. A possible 16-0 season? The Pats already did it and the Saints might do it this year too. Peyton's already been to the Big Game and won it; I don't think he's overly infatuated with the idea of being the first 19-0 team. I think he's just got his eye on the big prize: another ring. Everything else besides that is a very distant 2nd.
Frankly, I think the Colts would be somewhat relieved to lose this week. Think about it. Win this week and the pressure to go for the perfect season just mounts, since you've got a home game next week and the finale against a very bad Bills team. But this is a game that's completely acceptable for them to lose. It effectively costs them nothing and all eyes turn off of them and they can get down to the business of preparing for the playoffs and resting the guys they need to.
I don't expect the Colts to be conciously thinking about all this. Every guy in that clubhouse wants to win tomorrow. Still, you can't escape the fact that it is do-or-die for one team and a fairly meaningless game for the other. I don't expect the Colts to lay down, but I expect them to be just a little off their game while the Jags will be in playoff-mode.
Even if I'm wrong, I just don't see how this is anything other than a close game.
Jags +3
Thoughts appreciated!
Have been mainly a lurker and haven't posted much this season but I just wanted to weigh in and get some opinions on the Thursday night game tomorrow.
Really like Jacksonville in this spot.
For starters, here are the margins of victory for the last 10 games between these two teams: 2, 7, 2, 3, 22, 27, 7, 8, 7, 3. That's 80% of the games being decided by 1 possesion (BTW, with the two blowouts it was one for each team). True, Indy is 7-3 SU in those 10, but the point is that the vast majority of the games between these 2 in the last 5 years have been close.
Add to that the fact that the most recent of these was a 2-point game earlier this at Indy.
Then there's the fact that Jax is coming off a tough loss to Miami at home and haven't lost 2 in row all year period, let alone 2 in a row at home.
Then there are the intangibles. Quite frankly, this is the Super Bowl for the Jags. At 7-6 they know that they have to run the table to go anywhere.
For the Colts, what does this game mean? Division title? Already locked up. Homefield advantage? Ditto. A possible 16-0 season? The Pats already did it and the Saints might do it this year too. Peyton's already been to the Big Game and won it; I don't think he's overly infatuated with the idea of being the first 19-0 team. I think he's just got his eye on the big prize: another ring. Everything else besides that is a very distant 2nd.
Frankly, I think the Colts would be somewhat relieved to lose this week. Think about it. Win this week and the pressure to go for the perfect season just mounts, since you've got a home game next week and the finale against a very bad Bills team. But this is a game that's completely acceptable for them to lose. It effectively costs them nothing and all eyes turn off of them and they can get down to the business of preparing for the playoffs and resting the guys they need to.
I don't expect the Colts to be conciously thinking about all this. Every guy in that clubhouse wants to win tomorrow. Still, you can't escape the fact that it is do-or-die for one team and a fairly meaningless game for the other. I don't expect the Colts to lay down, but I expect them to be just a little off their game while the Jags will be in playoff-mode.
Even if I'm wrong, I just don't see how this is anything other than a close game.
Jags +3
Thoughts appreciated!
