Here is what I thought would happen in 2009, some hit, and some off the mark. (comments in brackets)
thanks
selkirk
the predictions started on the internet in late 1998 conerning 1999 so 10 years online at various places the print version has been ongoing since 1994.
if you disagree or would like to add your own please feel free.
Predicitons 2009
(was to bearish on oil in the short term, as it held up well, my call on Natural gas was correct)
Oil a wide range
last year oil ran from 100-140+then fell all the way back to below 35.
Oil will have a range this year of High 70 to a low of 25, (actually probaly only 30). the first six months will be ugly as supplies will continue to build up so oil will trade in the 30-50 range.
in the last half of the year oil may rebound however it does not break above 70 that is the story in 2010.
Oil price depnds on Demand
many people believe opec cutback will decide oil, this is wrong for the most part. first opec cheats, cheats, cheats, only when their system face collapse would they consider large cuts that would be needed. most opec countries have trouble running their governments on oil prices ranging from 38-22. depend on the nation. this is not what they produce oil for this is what they need to run their national economy.
when their is increase demand that is the biggest reason for a rally in oil.
Oil Sands was so 2006
when 60 minutes does a story on the cdn oil sands and they get all of that press, wait 6 months and that is probably a top. most projects will not be developed. same for most large projects, the oil off of Brazil, VZ oil sands, ect. this will cause oil to have a bigger run in the fuuture the longer it stays below 50.
Natural gas
top is $8, however probably even lower, supplies are building up quickly even in the winter, and the weak overall world wide economy has caused more LNG in 2008/2009. also all of the projects are coming on from 1-2 years ago.
so natural gas goes 4-8, however most of the year it stay in the low range 4-6.
see the trend, no one will look for natural gas at 4, so again this is a story for 2010. in the first six months of 2009 it is just pure pain for the natural gas producers. who starting shutting in production.
Drilling
Drilling for oil nat gas come to a grinding halt, no one want to look for this stuff, these are boom/bust, well the bust is not over yet.
(in Alberta natural gas drilling has fallen to almost half,...so dropped off even more than I thought)
Gold
Gold is great insurance and from time to time may own some sr. or large midcap, own Yamana and may even make money on it.....gold is insurance but do not see it breaking much over 1000.
few reasons. 1. the US dollar will be strong, sure it may be overvalued however when in doubt by some TBILL that pay nothing.
2. jewelry demand in the US and in places like India (almost a form of currency because they do not trust their money) will be weaker to the economy.
so gold trades from 700-1200, and for the most part 750-1000.
(should have stuck to the wider range, gold broke 1000 late in the year, and went to 1200 the upper end of the range noted above. Gold should hold above 1000-1100 or watch out below.)
Ford GM Chrysler
are going bankrupt, their shares prices will go to zero and their common shareholder will get wiped out, or close to it....
Ford 2.63 GM 4.03
a couple of years ago was very bearish on the car companies and of coarse the best performer on the dow was GM, should have said in two three year, as GM was the worse performer.
the bonds are trading for half or less, and if their are asked to take a cut then what will be left for shareholders.
(GM went bankrupt, the shares went to zero, have been bearish on the car industry for quite some time. Ford did a better job and the shares recovered sharply...they have more models coming out and are getting good reviews, they also built up cash before the credit crisis...shows what brilliant and idiot management can do..ie. ford, GM.
GM will come back but slower than expected. chance of gains in Ford, still not one of my favorite sectors)
Gorodon Murray is designing a car small than the smart car and cheaper to produce, also it gets 60-70m/gallon, and can go freeway speed. He desinged the Mclaren Supercar, it will be for cities and mainly in Europe.
the point is that you will have to produce a car for $10000 and make a profit. the big three cannot do this at present.
they have to many brands, dealerships, to high of costs.
maybe if the volt comes and is a big hit, and the govt. forgives all of the money given, and car sales actually grow, though those are big ifs, chances they go to zero.
common shareholder get wiped out, debt is reduces, they lay off 60% of their employees and cut dealerhsips by 1/2 or more, and only GM and Cadilac brands still remain. for GM.
Ford will also cut brands.
Recession will be in the list for the top 3 worse recessions since WW2.
and will probably take 1st or second. there is hope the economy recovers late in 2009, and the US spending package works, though it probably helps it does not do all is promise...and fall short.
(Well the economy did recover but the market did start in March, like stated below markets see ahead, it never fell short, was not surprised to see the economy come back just did it qucker than expected....espcially the market.)
Markets
well the economy may come out by late 2009, and until then the markets will be weak however the markets will be up to flat for the year....markets see ahead and there is a great deal of cash and the US govt. will keep spending.
so there either will be a recovery or a large crash...so tepid recovery is what we will choose....
(at the time that was actually bullish, and did say recovery not a crash, though that it would be tepid, or much slower. the markets were up, to flat....however never thought the markets would do as well as they did, thought 0-10% and closer to flatline.)
thanks
selkirk
thanks
selkirk
the predictions started on the internet in late 1998 conerning 1999 so 10 years online at various places the print version has been ongoing since 1994.
if you disagree or would like to add your own please feel free.
Predicitons 2009
(was to bearish on oil in the short term, as it held up well, my call on Natural gas was correct)
Oil a wide range
last year oil ran from 100-140+then fell all the way back to below 35.
Oil will have a range this year of High 70 to a low of 25, (actually probaly only 30). the first six months will be ugly as supplies will continue to build up so oil will trade in the 30-50 range.
in the last half of the year oil may rebound however it does not break above 70 that is the story in 2010.
Oil price depnds on Demand
many people believe opec cutback will decide oil, this is wrong for the most part. first opec cheats, cheats, cheats, only when their system face collapse would they consider large cuts that would be needed. most opec countries have trouble running their governments on oil prices ranging from 38-22. depend on the nation. this is not what they produce oil for this is what they need to run their national economy.
when their is increase demand that is the biggest reason for a rally in oil.
Oil Sands was so 2006
when 60 minutes does a story on the cdn oil sands and they get all of that press, wait 6 months and that is probably a top. most projects will not be developed. same for most large projects, the oil off of Brazil, VZ oil sands, ect. this will cause oil to have a bigger run in the fuuture the longer it stays below 50.
Natural gas
top is $8, however probably even lower, supplies are building up quickly even in the winter, and the weak overall world wide economy has caused more LNG in 2008/2009. also all of the projects are coming on from 1-2 years ago.
so natural gas goes 4-8, however most of the year it stay in the low range 4-6.
see the trend, no one will look for natural gas at 4, so again this is a story for 2010. in the first six months of 2009 it is just pure pain for the natural gas producers. who starting shutting in production.
Drilling
Drilling for oil nat gas come to a grinding halt, no one want to look for this stuff, these are boom/bust, well the bust is not over yet.
(in Alberta natural gas drilling has fallen to almost half,...so dropped off even more than I thought)
Gold
Gold is great insurance and from time to time may own some sr. or large midcap, own Yamana and may even make money on it.....gold is insurance but do not see it breaking much over 1000.
few reasons. 1. the US dollar will be strong, sure it may be overvalued however when in doubt by some TBILL that pay nothing.
2. jewelry demand in the US and in places like India (almost a form of currency because they do not trust their money) will be weaker to the economy.
so gold trades from 700-1200, and for the most part 750-1000.
(should have stuck to the wider range, gold broke 1000 late in the year, and went to 1200 the upper end of the range noted above. Gold should hold above 1000-1100 or watch out below.)
Ford GM Chrysler
are going bankrupt, their shares prices will go to zero and their common shareholder will get wiped out, or close to it....
Ford 2.63 GM 4.03
a couple of years ago was very bearish on the car companies and of coarse the best performer on the dow was GM, should have said in two three year, as GM was the worse performer.
the bonds are trading for half or less, and if their are asked to take a cut then what will be left for shareholders.
(GM went bankrupt, the shares went to zero, have been bearish on the car industry for quite some time. Ford did a better job and the shares recovered sharply...they have more models coming out and are getting good reviews, they also built up cash before the credit crisis...shows what brilliant and idiot management can do..ie. ford, GM.
GM will come back but slower than expected. chance of gains in Ford, still not one of my favorite sectors)
Gorodon Murray is designing a car small than the smart car and cheaper to produce, also it gets 60-70m/gallon, and can go freeway speed. He desinged the Mclaren Supercar, it will be for cities and mainly in Europe.
the point is that you will have to produce a car for $10000 and make a profit. the big three cannot do this at present.
they have to many brands, dealerships, to high of costs.
maybe if the volt comes and is a big hit, and the govt. forgives all of the money given, and car sales actually grow, though those are big ifs, chances they go to zero.
common shareholder get wiped out, debt is reduces, they lay off 60% of their employees and cut dealerhsips by 1/2 or more, and only GM and Cadilac brands still remain. for GM.
Ford will also cut brands.
Recession will be in the list for the top 3 worse recessions since WW2.
and will probably take 1st or second. there is hope the economy recovers late in 2009, and the US spending package works, though it probably helps it does not do all is promise...and fall short.
(Well the economy did recover but the market did start in March, like stated below markets see ahead, it never fell short, was not surprised to see the economy come back just did it qucker than expected....espcially the market.)
Markets
well the economy may come out by late 2009, and until then the markets will be weak however the markets will be up to flat for the year....markets see ahead and there is a great deal of cash and the US govt. will keep spending.
so there either will be a recovery or a large crash...so tepid recovery is what we will choose....
(at the time that was actually bullish, and did say recovery not a crash, though that it would be tepid, or much slower. the markets were up, to flat....however never thought the markets would do as well as they did, thought 0-10% and closer to flatline.)
thanks
selkirk
