will start a new thread in 2009 since 2008 was rough especially for the resource sector in the final three months.
personally will probably be +5% or -5%, have to count some options that expire in Jan. will be close to zero, was up over 20% but made some dumb trading mistakes still could have been much worse.
here is what talked about before comments in ( ), will also recap the stocks the ones did options worked out well the rest......yikes.
actually the predicitons started in a timely matter considering what the markets did...
Notes for predictions: 2008
As I write this the market is in a bearish mood?. Anyways during better times and negative years, it is good to examine the worse bear markets in history. Posted this one time as I disagreed with someone on what the worse bear market was,?they believed 1987. So if anyone asks you how bad can it get well here is the worse bear markets in history?
1906 1907 -49%
1909 1911 -27%
1912 1914 -24%
1916 1917 -40%
1919 1921 -47%
1929 1932 -89%
1937 1938 -49%
1938 1939 -23%
1939 1942 -40%
1946 1949 -24%
1956 1957 -19%
1960 1960 -17%
1961 1962 -27%
1966 1966 -25%
1968 1970 -36%
1973 1974 -45%
1976 1978 -27%
1981 1982 -24%
1987 1987 -36%
1990 1990 -21%
1998 1998 -16%
(you can add 2008 to the list)
1. There will be an election in Canada, should be a minority liberal or conservative government, unless one campaign just implodes.
(the conservatives got a minority, however the liberals have a stronger leader, and both the conservatives and liberals ran terrible campaigns. Harper would have won if he did not talk arts funding and youth crime)
2. The US fed will lower rates 75 basis points in the first three months, and 100 basis points over the coarse of the year?.maybe more, to fight the slowing economy.
(correct: however the economy though slowling went from slowing to drop off a cliff. so they had to react, rates to zero and print money and print money....)
3.Canada will also lower rates though not as much as the US, so the fed lowers 75 basis points then Canada will go 50.
(actually that is true, rates in Canada are higher, and though they have dropped not near to the amount in the US. the cdn. banks have held up better....for now....)
4.Gold: two years ago the portfolio would have returned 50-80%, took that off the table, last year returns of 2-8% overall. Keep those gains and stay with the gold funds. Dynamic, CIBC, BMO, Royal, TD. And the avg. gold fund, and etf (gold companies, not GLD). Just suggest these because in general they have are widely offered, and are available, do research to pick a good gold fund.
Would have also Suggested some sr. gold companies, however ABX which I own a small amount and (have 36-38-40-42puts sold) has gone almost 15% in a week. If ABX trades lower below 45 would look at it again, for now just holding the position? had no idea it would make this sharp of a move. Would have bought short term calls, and had 5X the position that I do?..
(actually ABX is just over 44cdn. so though not a winner, they have held up really well, may even make money on YRI, bought that 4 weeks to early.would still own some gold 2-10%. often would not bother but may not hurt to have some just in case. amount I have is about 7%, gold/silver/stocks))
5. Maybe half way through 2008 or probably 2009 these sr. gold companies may be tooo? expensive? it is very difficult to add production, or just maintain. Hear many times a CEO of a major gold company state their productions costs, usually below $400. that is basic bs? that is operating costs, which are also going higher, before that you have to find the mine, drill it for 3-5 years, do pre-feasiblitly, final feasibility, and environmental study, and get government permits, and permits, and permits?..well it is hard to replace reserves and harder to operate mines in a cost effective way??
(there was never a run up like a thought there might be, and probably gold would have to run up 40-60% in a quick period, thought there might be a mini mania....long term the sr. are way overvalued.... did not put the play on since they did not rise sharply.)
6. BCE deal will close. The stock trades at $38.20 cdn. the Ontario teachers have stated they will take over the company for $42.75 cdn. this deal will close. I own some (the shares I owned in the drip/spp have already been bought out for cash. The rest will also the teachers may be overpaying for BCE, (without the deal shares would trade in a range 28-35) probably lower in the range, in this market. Anyways bought some since if the deal is closed in the second quarter, give or take a few months you will make 12.39% counting dividend. WARNING. If the deal falls through then you will lose about 15-20% in a day. Still this is the Ontario Teachers pension fund and the deal should close.
(this deal never went through, and will explain in detail, the Quebec court rulued with the bond holders to stop the bid, was appealled to the supreme court and went through, some of the banks backing the largest leverage in history, at the end of the day was an accounting question... confusing....sold out during the year...)
7. Alberta Royalties were raised this year, making Alberta a more expensive place for energy companies to do business. Stelmach the new premier after the conservatives gave King Ralph weak support at a leadership review vote, and Ralph resigned. Stelmach appointed a review, most people not from the energy industry and without very little knowledge.
Alberta needs more money for schools, infrastructure, ect. The poputlaiton is growing quickly, this will hurt a province that has no debt and much of its wealth has come from oil/gas. Still the industry will have to pay more and should probably expect to shoulder some of these costs; however re-opening the deals with Syncrude and Suncor (long term oil sand deals ) is a terrible sign for business in Alberta, and any government to go back on their word.
Still the oilsands plays will be very profitable and where else would you want to go for oilsand play, Venz, Russia, Nigeria?.Alberta is still a good place for oil/gas companies?. Some provinces may now be better, however most places have increased royalty rates? Gartman and other investment ?experts? raised alarm bells over this however where were they when American government raised rates twice/year, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most oil is controlled by national governments 85% approx, and the remaining portion governments are increasing taxes, and royalty rates?. This sends costs higher.
(Alberta rasing royalties cost it large amounts of investments, and at 30-40 oil, oil sands are a non srtarter, though they will be very profitable just at higher prices, north of 60 for most projects.)
8. If the fed cuts the rates as expected their will be a little word that is often downplayed, and never used (as much)?.INFLATION. most of the time when the media and experts comment on Inflation they leave out gas, and food?. That is done often?the reason is these are volatile and so are excluded from the core number. Well energy could be ignored at 20-30 however now at $100 these this can help cause inflation.
A perfect example in Agriculture, in the US/cdn. one of the main outputs is fuel, (the tractors do not run on air, coloured diesel fuel in areas has tripled in price in the last five years. This cost has to be at some point passed on to consumers.
Also there is increased demand, there are 600 million people in Asia that are eating diets that have more protein.
In North America in the 1950s 20% budget of the US family was spent on food, at one time this decreased to 5-8% (10 years ago) now this number is closer to 10%, at should increase over time, to between 15-20%.
(wrong there was no sign of inflation as the economy declined, however the government is printing paper, it will happen, and the resource projects being shelved like there is no tommorrow...well, like all preditions if you wait long enough....
Also the family farm is disappearing in favour of much larger (industry owned operations).
The average American farmer is close to 60, the percentage of farmers under 35 has decreased from 15.9% in 1982 to 5.8% today
Also the lack of water and the amount consumed to produce many agriculture crops,?.though the novel ends at some point?.anyways people have paid toooo little for their food and have taken it for granted? this changes in the coming years?. Not a doomsday scenario, however the days of declining food costs are over.
Note: below for interests are the top performing markets and worse in the world, you can almost any market now with an etf. I own VWO (as a play on emerging markets, at time of this was at $102.25.
The main surpise is the Ukarine, though they have been a poor market for years, not good government, many show what can be accomplished. By good policies, and hard work. Very surpised VWO is still over $100, it is amazing how well it is holding up, given the US sell off sometimes in the past these markets would get destroyed. Many of these emerging markets, and countries will have growth that double the US, and Europe in the next 5 years.
TOP 10
China CSI 300 index 179.75%
Ukranian PFTS index 135.41%
Slovenia total market 96.90%
Nigeria stock exchange 87.17%
Bangladesh DHAKA stock 86.19%
Croatia Zagreb crobex 80.84%
Brazil Bovespa stock index 72.44%
Istanbul ISE national 100 index 71.91%
African Mauritius stock exchange 70.00%
Bombay BSE sensex 30 index 65.23%
***
BOTTOM 10
Trinidad Tobago composite index 0.17%
Argentina merval index 0.02%
- 0.18% Stockholm OMX 30 index
- 4.15% Estonia OMX Tallinn index
- 5.29% Tokyo Nikkei 225 index
- 6.44% Tokyo topix index
- 6.70% Ecuador Guayaquil stock
- 7.69% Sri Lanka colombo all shares index
- 18.52% Irish overall index
- 27.43% Venezuela stock market inde
personally will probably be +5% or -5%, have to count some options that expire in Jan. will be close to zero, was up over 20% but made some dumb trading mistakes still could have been much worse.
here is what talked about before comments in ( ), will also recap the stocks the ones did options worked out well the rest......yikes.
actually the predicitons started in a timely matter considering what the markets did...
Notes for predictions: 2008
As I write this the market is in a bearish mood?. Anyways during better times and negative years, it is good to examine the worse bear markets in history. Posted this one time as I disagreed with someone on what the worse bear market was,?they believed 1987. So if anyone asks you how bad can it get well here is the worse bear markets in history?
1906 1907 -49%
1909 1911 -27%
1912 1914 -24%
1916 1917 -40%
1919 1921 -47%
1929 1932 -89%
1937 1938 -49%
1938 1939 -23%
1939 1942 -40%
1946 1949 -24%
1956 1957 -19%
1960 1960 -17%
1961 1962 -27%
1966 1966 -25%
1968 1970 -36%
1973 1974 -45%
1976 1978 -27%
1981 1982 -24%
1987 1987 -36%
1990 1990 -21%
1998 1998 -16%
(you can add 2008 to the list)
1. There will be an election in Canada, should be a minority liberal or conservative government, unless one campaign just implodes.
(the conservatives got a minority, however the liberals have a stronger leader, and both the conservatives and liberals ran terrible campaigns. Harper would have won if he did not talk arts funding and youth crime)
2. The US fed will lower rates 75 basis points in the first three months, and 100 basis points over the coarse of the year?.maybe more, to fight the slowing economy.
(correct: however the economy though slowling went from slowing to drop off a cliff. so they had to react, rates to zero and print money and print money....)
3.Canada will also lower rates though not as much as the US, so the fed lowers 75 basis points then Canada will go 50.
(actually that is true, rates in Canada are higher, and though they have dropped not near to the amount in the US. the cdn. banks have held up better....for now....)
4.Gold: two years ago the portfolio would have returned 50-80%, took that off the table, last year returns of 2-8% overall. Keep those gains and stay with the gold funds. Dynamic, CIBC, BMO, Royal, TD. And the avg. gold fund, and etf (gold companies, not GLD). Just suggest these because in general they have are widely offered, and are available, do research to pick a good gold fund.
Would have also Suggested some sr. gold companies, however ABX which I own a small amount and (have 36-38-40-42puts sold) has gone almost 15% in a week. If ABX trades lower below 45 would look at it again, for now just holding the position? had no idea it would make this sharp of a move. Would have bought short term calls, and had 5X the position that I do?..
(actually ABX is just over 44cdn. so though not a winner, they have held up really well, may even make money on YRI, bought that 4 weeks to early.would still own some gold 2-10%. often would not bother but may not hurt to have some just in case. amount I have is about 7%, gold/silver/stocks))
5. Maybe half way through 2008 or probably 2009 these sr. gold companies may be tooo? expensive? it is very difficult to add production, or just maintain. Hear many times a CEO of a major gold company state their productions costs, usually below $400. that is basic bs? that is operating costs, which are also going higher, before that you have to find the mine, drill it for 3-5 years, do pre-feasiblitly, final feasibility, and environmental study, and get government permits, and permits, and permits?..well it is hard to replace reserves and harder to operate mines in a cost effective way??
(there was never a run up like a thought there might be, and probably gold would have to run up 40-60% in a quick period, thought there might be a mini mania....long term the sr. are way overvalued.... did not put the play on since they did not rise sharply.)
6. BCE deal will close. The stock trades at $38.20 cdn. the Ontario teachers have stated they will take over the company for $42.75 cdn. this deal will close. I own some (the shares I owned in the drip/spp have already been bought out for cash. The rest will also the teachers may be overpaying for BCE, (without the deal shares would trade in a range 28-35) probably lower in the range, in this market. Anyways bought some since if the deal is closed in the second quarter, give or take a few months you will make 12.39% counting dividend. WARNING. If the deal falls through then you will lose about 15-20% in a day. Still this is the Ontario Teachers pension fund and the deal should close.
(this deal never went through, and will explain in detail, the Quebec court rulued with the bond holders to stop the bid, was appealled to the supreme court and went through, some of the banks backing the largest leverage in history, at the end of the day was an accounting question... confusing....sold out during the year...)
7. Alberta Royalties were raised this year, making Alberta a more expensive place for energy companies to do business. Stelmach the new premier after the conservatives gave King Ralph weak support at a leadership review vote, and Ralph resigned. Stelmach appointed a review, most people not from the energy industry and without very little knowledge.
Alberta needs more money for schools, infrastructure, ect. The poputlaiton is growing quickly, this will hurt a province that has no debt and much of its wealth has come from oil/gas. Still the industry will have to pay more and should probably expect to shoulder some of these costs; however re-opening the deals with Syncrude and Suncor (long term oil sand deals ) is a terrible sign for business in Alberta, and any government to go back on their word.
Still the oilsands plays will be very profitable and where else would you want to go for oilsand play, Venz, Russia, Nigeria?.Alberta is still a good place for oil/gas companies?. Some provinces may now be better, however most places have increased royalty rates? Gartman and other investment ?experts? raised alarm bells over this however where were they when American government raised rates twice/year, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most oil is controlled by national governments 85% approx, and the remaining portion governments are increasing taxes, and royalty rates?. This sends costs higher.
(Alberta rasing royalties cost it large amounts of investments, and at 30-40 oil, oil sands are a non srtarter, though they will be very profitable just at higher prices, north of 60 for most projects.)
8. If the fed cuts the rates as expected their will be a little word that is often downplayed, and never used (as much)?.INFLATION. most of the time when the media and experts comment on Inflation they leave out gas, and food?. That is done often?the reason is these are volatile and so are excluded from the core number. Well energy could be ignored at 20-30 however now at $100 these this can help cause inflation.
A perfect example in Agriculture, in the US/cdn. one of the main outputs is fuel, (the tractors do not run on air, coloured diesel fuel in areas has tripled in price in the last five years. This cost has to be at some point passed on to consumers.
Also there is increased demand, there are 600 million people in Asia that are eating diets that have more protein.
In North America in the 1950s 20% budget of the US family was spent on food, at one time this decreased to 5-8% (10 years ago) now this number is closer to 10%, at should increase over time, to between 15-20%.
(wrong there was no sign of inflation as the economy declined, however the government is printing paper, it will happen, and the resource projects being shelved like there is no tommorrow...well, like all preditions if you wait long enough....
Also the family farm is disappearing in favour of much larger (industry owned operations).
The average American farmer is close to 60, the percentage of farmers under 35 has decreased from 15.9% in 1982 to 5.8% today
Also the lack of water and the amount consumed to produce many agriculture crops,?.though the novel ends at some point?.anyways people have paid toooo little for their food and have taken it for granted? this changes in the coming years?. Not a doomsday scenario, however the days of declining food costs are over.
Note: below for interests are the top performing markets and worse in the world, you can almost any market now with an etf. I own VWO (as a play on emerging markets, at time of this was at $102.25.
The main surpise is the Ukarine, though they have been a poor market for years, not good government, many show what can be accomplished. By good policies, and hard work. Very surpised VWO is still over $100, it is amazing how well it is holding up, given the US sell off sometimes in the past these markets would get destroyed. Many of these emerging markets, and countries will have growth that double the US, and Europe in the next 5 years.
TOP 10
China CSI 300 index 179.75%
Ukranian PFTS index 135.41%
Slovenia total market 96.90%
Nigeria stock exchange 87.17%
Bangladesh DHAKA stock 86.19%
Croatia Zagreb crobex 80.84%
Brazil Bovespa stock index 72.44%
Istanbul ISE national 100 index 71.91%
African Mauritius stock exchange 70.00%
Bombay BSE sensex 30 index 65.23%
***
BOTTOM 10
Trinidad Tobago composite index 0.17%
Argentina merval index 0.02%
- 0.18% Stockholm OMX 30 index
- 4.15% Estonia OMX Tallinn index
- 5.29% Tokyo Nikkei 225 index
- 6.44% Tokyo topix index
- 6.70% Ecuador Guayaquil stock
- 7.69% Sri Lanka colombo all shares index
- 18.52% Irish overall index
- 27.43% Venezuela stock market inde
