Recap

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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in this thread will go over some of my stock picks on the forum, to see how well or poorly they did and a general update of their current status.

will go over the picks I posted from the shareclub competition I post here, and how my suggestions have fared.

first will go over some picks I suggested on 5-25-2003 in GD forum in Six Five thread "someone shoot me a stock tip".

update

WMB is at $9.96 sold 50% of my position the rest I am holding. Return on WMB is 46% roughly
has passed my target of $9.50 think it may go past $12 by the end of 2004. will sell more if it passes past $10, will keep 25% of the position.
stop at $8.50

BPOP $43.10 over a 12% return plus you get a $1.08 dividend. If you find a bank stock that returns you 10-15% on average.....keep it......

Russel TSX is no longer at $5.50-%5.80 range it is at $6.80, first started talking about this stock at $4.50 cdn. anyways since mentioned in this thread up 17.24% plus it yield 4%. a stock trading below 10PE yield 4% and managment owns large portion of stock. also earnings growing...someone told me they are growing so slowly that it was a boring story, I like boring stories.

NT was over $4 cdn. stated thought it was a good momentum play, went as high as $6.50, now at $5.45. sold my stock when it broke below $6cdn. numbers reported were not bad but they have to go back and look at their accounting. HUGE RED FLAG. when a company has problems counting GET OUT....

Finally KVL is the one loser so far of the group was at $2.19 and now at $2.02. they issued some more shares but will have to look more into this company, this junior oil/gas looks very Cheap.

thanks
selkirk




1. Williams WMB- bought this again, at $6.80, set stop loss at $6.50 talked about in the stock forum just under $15 went over $21, and then it began its collapse, sold some at a profit some at a loss. posted to get out over $14, stopped tracking it when it went below $3.

anyways they finally did what they should have done when the stock was falling from $40. they sold assets, and raised money, why they waited shows the idiot managment factor.

they have enough money to pay all debts in 2003 and 2004 so it should not go to zero (note: SHOULD not go to zero). the company should make a profit in 2003 .10 a share. however in 2004 profits should increase to about .40-.50

it yields .52%, this is not the safest stock but is up from the high of .78.


raised my stop loss to $6.50, will soon be at $7. my target 12 months is $9.50. which will be a good gain, if the markets tank will be stopped out at $6.50. the stock is volatile so you could maybe get it cheaper closed at $7.90



2. Popular Inc (BPOP)
Biggest bank in Puerto Rico, has over 190 branches there, 95 in the US, 8 in the Virgin Islands.
caters to the Hispanic community, which will be a place of growth in the US in the future.
stock yields 2.80%, trades at 14PE,
low $27.97 high $38.96 closed $38.42
bought my position at $34.50 average price.

not very well covered, also loan loss if the economy slows down.
still think this stock could grow 10%+ on an annually basis.


will post some other later.
some small caps that trade on TSX that I have talked about in stock forum and still own RUS- was better below $5, now it is at $5.85, cheap stock yields over 4% and trades 10PE. believe it should go above $6. buy below $5.50. a friend of mine who is very good at small caps believes should go to $8. in two years. do not agree but a 4% yield get paid to a wait.

KVL Cavell first post $1.42 now at $2.19, believe it should go to $2.50 cdn. however have sold half my position. oil/gas saskatchewan play.
other juniors listed have done well execpt Gauntlett lost 30%+ on the stock. now trades below a dollar and not worth that.



also if the market continue its rally tech stocks should continue to do well, a big one in Canada is Nortel, it seems to want to go higher. Nortel was bad call did not sell it quickly enough. since then bought some at $3.25 cdn. and wrote $3.50 calls on the stock, now over $4 cdn. will lose most of the position. believe it may go higher in a good market but company should be at around $3.25. so be carefull more of a momentum trade now.

more later. hope it helps, and good luck.

thanks
selkirk
 

SixFive

bonswa
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Mar 12, 2001
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thanks again for the tips, selkirk!

bought bpop which is now at 46.41 This looks to be a solid IRA stock.
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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DTB thanks for the link, believe WMB may be a good turn around story. Only have 25% of my position got stopped out on some, had a good run to $10 will sell all of the position if it goes through $8.75.

Managment is finally doing what they should have done a year ago, have no idea why they did not do this when the stock was at $14-$20, and waited until it hit below $3. believe it will be a few months before it goes on a run and breaks $10 to $12, but so far they seem to be on track.

TRP TransCanada Pipelines is a company that was a stable blue chip company that made some bad purchases and was not run well for a few years.....well....maybe longer, they cut their div and the stock tanked now they are doing better stock up 3X from the low and is now increasing the div.....rate it a hold, like the stock not the price 5% lower would be better.

Six five Bpop seems to be performing well, every investor should have a few bank stocks that perform. Would buy some more Cdn. bank stocks but do not like the price, have been long term winners though.

Recap

soon it will be time for another stock contest in my shareclub this year we will come in 5 out of nine. Difference is their is only 5 stocks selected compared to 10 in 2001, increases the luck factor, still probably would have finished in fifth though.

the topics were posted under Contest and notes
these are just my suggestions for the club.

2001 December
Saputo SAP trades on Toronto and yields 1.72% price now $28.55
price 2001 $25

counting the dividends paid out during this time your return would have been just under 17%. not great considering the great bull market we have had this year, but it was picked as a defennsive stock in a bad year for stocks. It has held up well, they are in cheese business and diary. They are also expanded into cakes Vachon and jucies (apple, orange). Well run and their earnings were very good. Boring but believe it is worth $30 at least so will hold.. rate of return should be 8-12% per year.


Coolbrands COB.a was at $3.80 when suggested it, and at $4.44 when the contest started, it is now at $18.12.....now I built up a large position in this Ice cream company.

many people in the club in September asked me what I did with the huge windfall......yikes....for some stupid reason I sold over 50% at $6.50....I thougth I spotted a trading range.

when a stock makes new highs do not be an idiot and sell, you set a stoploss and then sell. still own about 25% of the stock, there has been quite a bit of insider selling and to me it is fully valued (of coarse may have said that at $6.50 :( )

will soon sell all of the position; made quite a bit off the stock but could have made more if I did not break a trading rule........breaking trading rules costs you money....

2002 December

XIU TSX $36.65 was at $37.50 when the contest started now at $43.50
this is an exchange traded fund and tracks the TSX SP 60, I like the low MER of .18% the biggest holding are the big 5 cdn. banks BMO, BNS, RY, CM, TD, which all have had a good year 20%+. the index counting div yield of 1.71% for a return of 20%.

most of the clubs this year beat the index but last year only 3-4 did out of nine, long term the index would beat most of them. Having some of your money tied to get the average of the index would not be the dumbest move you could make.

Rider RRI TSX $1.62 $1.68 contest started at the end of February it was taken over (merged with another company) price was $1.92. for a return of 14.2% in two months.

A junior oil and gas company in the next contest 2003 Dec will probably select another junior oil/gas, many cheap ones.


XIU and SAP were the bigger safer stocks, RRI and Coolbrands had higher risk, however both company had earnings, so the risk was limited.

thanks
selkirk
 
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