RED SHEET-GOLD SHEET-POINTWISE WRITE-UPS
- Thread starter smax
- Start date
Red Sheet for 9/25-9/28
ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7?, and is now minus 6?. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And the
Moreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.
RATING: ALABAMA 89
Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3?. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87? pts ahead of the spread
in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.
RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89
TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18?. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere
6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocket
squad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.
RATING: TOLEDO 88
BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.
RATING: BALL STATE 88
OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials
have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.
The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.
RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6?); FresnoSt (-3? to -7); Illinois (+16? to +13?); SouthernCal (-21? to -24); Louisville (-1? to -3?); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26? to +24?); Marshall (+17 to +15?); Duke (-5? to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3?); Toledo
(-17 to -18?) - NFL: StLouis (+9? to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -
KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....
ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7?, and is now minus 6?. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And the
Moreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.
RATING: ALABAMA 89
Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3?. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87? pts ahead of the spread
in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.
RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89
TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18?. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere
6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocket
squad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.
RATING: TOLEDO 88
BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.
RATING: BALL STATE 88
OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials
have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.
The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.
RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6?); FresnoSt (-3? to -7); Illinois (+16? to +13?); SouthernCal (-21? to -24); Louisville (-1? to -3?); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26? to +24?); Marshall (+17 to +15?); Duke (-5? to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3?); Toledo
(-17 to -18?) - NFL: StLouis (+9? to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -
KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....
GOLD SHEET - Pro
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10?Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry
Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender
(Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta ?D? might be under new
HC Mike Smith, it?s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did
Minnesota?s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can
effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve
Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still
not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs? two
wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on
road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1)
(07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13?Kudos to Joe Flacco for his
hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs
(ask Atlanta?s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers? zone
blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS
Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco
(who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect
a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week?s
loss at Philly. Steelers ?over? 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24?The Rams? back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58
of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven
straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more!
Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR
James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the
NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for
improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting
for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc
Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis ?over? 17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
Denver 31 - KANSAS CITY 20?While K.C. has started three different QBs
in the first three games, Denver?s Jay Cutler has emerged as one of the
brightest young passers in the league, with 714 YP and 6 TDs. And, while the
Chiefs? rebuilt OL has failed to meld, the remodeled Bronco front wall has
allowed only one sack. Rebuilding K.C. 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 at home.
However, with the pointspread so uncharacteristic for this old AFC West rivalry,
and with Chiefs able to run with Larry Johnson, might look for 10-3 series ?over?
trend to continue.
(07-Denv 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)
(07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 52-44)
CINCINNATI 23 - Cleveland 13?0-3 vs. 0-3. Bengals at least showed signs
of life last week with their near win vs. the Giants, as Carson Palmer hit 27 of 39,
Chris Perry the balanced offense with 70 YR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh got
loose for 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Cleveland offense (9 ppg) was stifled in
Baltimore, with Derek Anderson (5 sacks, 3 ints.) under pressure, receiving
corps thin, and Jamal Lewis showing his age. Cincy 6-1 SU last 7 in series;
?under? 7 of last 9 overall; Cleveland ?under? 8 of last 9 overall.
(07-CLE. 51-Cin 45...Ci.33-23 Cl.30/226 Ci.26/137 Ci.33/50/2/394 Cl.20/33/1/328 Cl.0 Ci.1)
(07-CIN 19-Cle. 14...Cl.25-15 Ci.33/155 Cl.26/136 Cl.29/48/4/244 Ci.11/21/2/115 Ci.1 Cl.0)
(07-CLEVELAND +7 51-45, CINCINNATI +2' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 35-34)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Houston 20?Houston has played Jacksonville tough
over the years, covering 9 times in 12 series meetings. With the Jags? offense
hurting in the line and at WR, don?t mind looking for a continuation, as Texan
offense had problems shaking off the rust in the red zone last week in
Tennessee. With 2007 seventh-round pick Zach Diles locking up one OLB
spot, Houston now has four rock-solid young guns in front seven (Diles, MLB
DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye) to counter Jacksonville?s
improving ground game (236 YR at Indy). Must acknowledge, however, the
hurricane-disrupted Texans have yet to play a home game.
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2)
(07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1)
(07-JACKSONVILLE -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-5)
NY JETS 24 - Arizona 16?The NFL?s answer to a Jamie Moyer vs. Randy
Johnson pitching matchup, with vet QBs Kurt Warner (37) & Brett Favre (38)
each a bit long in the tooth, but still quite serviceable. Warner has had more
chances to show his stuff early in the season, but expect that dynamic to
gradually change as Favre gains familiarity and Eric Mangini (hopefully)
loosens the handcuffs on the Jets? offense, which was limited by conservative
playcalling in first two games. Will count on improved N.Y. OL to help Favre get
things going. Arizona only 3-7 SU last 10 on road.
(04-NY Jets -3 13-3...SR: NY Jets 4-2)
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 27?With N.O. defense thinned by
injuries, it?s a good time for S.F. QB J.T. O?Sullivan to make his second road
start. Niner offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who liked what he saw of
O?Sullivan a couple of years ago while studying film of NFL Europe players,
says the QB could develop into one of his best with O?Sullivan?s combination of
mobility with a quick release. Offensive-minded Saints (4-11 last 15 as
Superdome favorite) have hardly protected their turf very well lately, but they do
have a penchant for going ?over? (16 of last 22).
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16?Another battle of ?fossil? QBs, with 36-
year-old Gus Frerotte opposing 35-year-old Kerry Collins after each was tabbed
to provide veteran leadership. But, with both teams limited in receiving talent,
this might turn out to be more of a contest between young RBs Adrian Peterson
(340 YR) of the Vikes and speedy Chris Johnson (276 YR) of the Titans. And
Minnesota has been No. 1 against the run for the L2Ys. In ground-oriented,
defensive affair, would look for Tennessee?s 13-7 ?under? trend to extend. (04-
MINNESOTA -6 20-3...SR: Minnesota 7-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Green Bay 16?Aaron Rodgers of the Packers took his first
loss as a starter Sunday night vs. Dallas, but he still has 4 TDs & no ints. TY,
showing a better delivery & composure than many expected. However, the heat
and noisy crowd of Raymond James has done in many a good QB, as Brett
Favre showed with Green Bay many a time. The Bucs won last week in Chicago
despite 4 turnovers, with Brian Griese completing 38 of 67 passes! With Ryan
Grant still not 100% due to his sore hamstring, will side with rejuvenated veteran
Griese and home-loving? Bucs (7-2 last 9 as a home favorite).
(05-Tampa Bay -3' 17-16...SR: Green Bay 30-19-1)
San Diego 26 - OAKLAND 13?The situation in Oakland seems to have at
least one bizarre twist each week, with the team?s PR department last week
distributing a column critical of HC Lane Kiffin. Mike Shanahan has pointed out
that he lasted one year and four games, and this is ominous Week Four of Year
Two for Kiffin. More importantly, S.D.?s talented CBs capable of taking
adequate care of the Raiders? WRs, allowing Chargers to overload their injury/
suspension-thinned defense vs. the formidable Oakland ground game. With
S.D. 9-0 SU last 9 in this rivalry (and 9-1 last 10 vs. the line), will side with Philip
& L.T. over JaMarcus & ?Run D.Mc.?
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-40-2)
DALLAS 27 - Washington 23?By all appearances so far, Dallas appears to
by Super Bowl bound. But this is a lonnng season, and new Washington HC Jim
Zorn seems to have done wonders with the Washington offense, boosting the
confidence of big, mobile, strong-armed QB Jason Campbell by allowing him to
fire away to talented targets Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris
Cooley. Scouts report Redskins happy they finally have their top cover guys
(Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot) all healthy again. Washington 5-
1 vs. spread last 6 in series.
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASHINGTON -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-38-2)
*Philadelphia 27 - CHICAGO 20?Will side with the experience of Donovan
McNabb to make game-deciding plays over the still-evolving Kyle Orton (2 ints.
last week) vs. Philly pass rush (9 sacks last week). Bears again perfecting the
art of the close defeat (back-to-back 3-point losses), with offense becoming
increasingly reliant upon the work of impressive rookie RB Matt Forte (on pace
for 1600-yard season). Eagles (check status of Brian Westbrook?s ankle) still
seething from LY?s meeting at the Linc, when then-Chicago QB Brian Griese
drove Bears the length of the field without a timeout for last-second win.
Compelling ?over? trends of note (Philly ?over? 11-6 last 17 away; Bears ?over?
16-4 last 20 at Soldier Field). TV?NBC
(07-Chi. 19-PHIL. 16...P.21-19 P.25/123 C.23/72 C.27/41/0/314 P.21/34/0/211 C.0 P.0)
(07-Chicago +5' 19-16...SR: Chicago 26-10-1)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10?Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry
Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender
(Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta ?D? might be under new
HC Mike Smith, it?s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did
Minnesota?s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can
effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve
Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still
not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs? two
wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on
road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1)
(07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13?Kudos to Joe Flacco for his
hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs
(ask Atlanta?s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers? zone
blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS
Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco
(who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect
a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week?s
loss at Philly. Steelers ?over? 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24?The Rams? back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58
of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven
straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more!
Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR
James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the
NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for
improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting
for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc
Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis ?over? 17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
Denver 31 - KANSAS CITY 20?While K.C. has started three different QBs
in the first three games, Denver?s Jay Cutler has emerged as one of the
brightest young passers in the league, with 714 YP and 6 TDs. And, while the
Chiefs? rebuilt OL has failed to meld, the remodeled Bronco front wall has
allowed only one sack. Rebuilding K.C. 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 at home.
However, with the pointspread so uncharacteristic for this old AFC West rivalry,
and with Chiefs able to run with Larry Johnson, might look for 10-3 series ?over?
trend to continue.
(07-Denv 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)
(07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 52-44)
CINCINNATI 23 - Cleveland 13?0-3 vs. 0-3. Bengals at least showed signs
of life last week with their near win vs. the Giants, as Carson Palmer hit 27 of 39,
Chris Perry the balanced offense with 70 YR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh got
loose for 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Cleveland offense (9 ppg) was stifled in
Baltimore, with Derek Anderson (5 sacks, 3 ints.) under pressure, receiving
corps thin, and Jamal Lewis showing his age. Cincy 6-1 SU last 7 in series;
?under? 7 of last 9 overall; Cleveland ?under? 8 of last 9 overall.
(07-CLE. 51-Cin 45...Ci.33-23 Cl.30/226 Ci.26/137 Ci.33/50/2/394 Cl.20/33/1/328 Cl.0 Ci.1)
(07-CIN 19-Cle. 14...Cl.25-15 Ci.33/155 Cl.26/136 Cl.29/48/4/244 Ci.11/21/2/115 Ci.1 Cl.0)
(07-CLEVELAND +7 51-45, CINCINNATI +2' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 35-34)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Houston 20?Houston has played Jacksonville tough
over the years, covering 9 times in 12 series meetings. With the Jags? offense
hurting in the line and at WR, don?t mind looking for a continuation, as Texan
offense had problems shaking off the rust in the red zone last week in
Tennessee. With 2007 seventh-round pick Zach Diles locking up one OLB
spot, Houston now has four rock-solid young guns in front seven (Diles, MLB
DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye) to counter Jacksonville?s
improving ground game (236 YR at Indy). Must acknowledge, however, the
hurricane-disrupted Texans have yet to play a home game.
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2)
(07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1)
(07-JACKSONVILLE -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-5)
NY JETS 24 - Arizona 16?The NFL?s answer to a Jamie Moyer vs. Randy
Johnson pitching matchup, with vet QBs Kurt Warner (37) & Brett Favre (38)
each a bit long in the tooth, but still quite serviceable. Warner has had more
chances to show his stuff early in the season, but expect that dynamic to
gradually change as Favre gains familiarity and Eric Mangini (hopefully)
loosens the handcuffs on the Jets? offense, which was limited by conservative
playcalling in first two games. Will count on improved N.Y. OL to help Favre get
things going. Arizona only 3-7 SU last 10 on road.
(04-NY Jets -3 13-3...SR: NY Jets 4-2)
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 27?With N.O. defense thinned by
injuries, it?s a good time for S.F. QB J.T. O?Sullivan to make his second road
start. Niner offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who liked what he saw of
O?Sullivan a couple of years ago while studying film of NFL Europe players,
says the QB could develop into one of his best with O?Sullivan?s combination of
mobility with a quick release. Offensive-minded Saints (4-11 last 15 as
Superdome favorite) have hardly protected their turf very well lately, but they do
have a penchant for going ?over? (16 of last 22).
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16?Another battle of ?fossil? QBs, with 36-
year-old Gus Frerotte opposing 35-year-old Kerry Collins after each was tabbed
to provide veteran leadership. But, with both teams limited in receiving talent,
this might turn out to be more of a contest between young RBs Adrian Peterson
(340 YR) of the Vikes and speedy Chris Johnson (276 YR) of the Titans. And
Minnesota has been No. 1 against the run for the L2Ys. In ground-oriented,
defensive affair, would look for Tennessee?s 13-7 ?under? trend to extend. (04-
MINNESOTA -6 20-3...SR: Minnesota 7-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Green Bay 16?Aaron Rodgers of the Packers took his first
loss as a starter Sunday night vs. Dallas, but he still has 4 TDs & no ints. TY,
showing a better delivery & composure than many expected. However, the heat
and noisy crowd of Raymond James has done in many a good QB, as Brett
Favre showed with Green Bay many a time. The Bucs won last week in Chicago
despite 4 turnovers, with Brian Griese completing 38 of 67 passes! With Ryan
Grant still not 100% due to his sore hamstring, will side with rejuvenated veteran
Griese and home-loving? Bucs (7-2 last 9 as a home favorite).
(05-Tampa Bay -3' 17-16...SR: Green Bay 30-19-1)
San Diego 26 - OAKLAND 13?The situation in Oakland seems to have at
least one bizarre twist each week, with the team?s PR department last week
distributing a column critical of HC Lane Kiffin. Mike Shanahan has pointed out
that he lasted one year and four games, and this is ominous Week Four of Year
Two for Kiffin. More importantly, S.D.?s talented CBs capable of taking
adequate care of the Raiders? WRs, allowing Chargers to overload their injury/
suspension-thinned defense vs. the formidable Oakland ground game. With
S.D. 9-0 SU last 9 in this rivalry (and 9-1 last 10 vs. the line), will side with Philip
& L.T. over JaMarcus & ?Run D.Mc.?
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-40-2)
DALLAS 27 - Washington 23?By all appearances so far, Dallas appears to
by Super Bowl bound. But this is a lonnng season, and new Washington HC Jim
Zorn seems to have done wonders with the Washington offense, boosting the
confidence of big, mobile, strong-armed QB Jason Campbell by allowing him to
fire away to talented targets Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris
Cooley. Scouts report Redskins happy they finally have their top cover guys
(Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot) all healthy again. Washington 5-
1 vs. spread last 6 in series.
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASHINGTON -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-38-2)
*Philadelphia 27 - CHICAGO 20?Will side with the experience of Donovan
McNabb to make game-deciding plays over the still-evolving Kyle Orton (2 ints.
last week) vs. Philly pass rush (9 sacks last week). Bears again perfecting the
art of the close defeat (back-to-back 3-point losses), with offense becoming
increasingly reliant upon the work of impressive rookie RB Matt Forte (on pace
for 1600-yard season). Eagles (check status of Brian Westbrook?s ankle) still
seething from LY?s meeting at the Linc, when then-Chicago QB Brian Griese
drove Bears the length of the field without a timeout for last-second win.
Compelling ?over? trends of note (Philly ?over? 11-6 last 17 away; Bears ?over?
16-4 last 20 at Soldier Field). TV?NBC
(07-Chi. 19-PHIL. 16...P.21-19 P.25/123 C.23/72 C.27/41/0/314 P.21/34/0/211 C.0 P.0)
(07-Chicago +5' 19-16...SR: Chicago 26-10-1)
Pointwise - Pro
Pointwise - Pro
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- It continues. Thus far, the visitor in
games involving the Raiders is a perfect 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by a
combined total of 51 pts. Oakland actually led the Bills, 23-14, with 4 minutes
remaining, before that collapse. We say "actually", because the Raiders had a
25-10 FD deficit, while coming from 300 RYs at KC to just 98 at Buffalo. The
Raiders catch the Chargers off their Monday Nighter with the Jets, but that
should matter little, a Oakland is 6-15 ATS off a loss of <3 pts, is 2-15 ATS as
a division host, is 1-9 ATS vs the Chargers, & a perfect 0-6 ATS as series host.
Cleveland 17 - CINCINNATI 16 - (1:00) -- A couple of very disappointing teams
meet here. The Browns have said good-bye to LY's super "O", scoring just 8,
14, 20, 10, 6, & 10 pts in their last 6 outings (11.3 ppg). No rushing "O", & in
off just 11 FDs in loss to the Ravens. Cincy took the Giants into OT, but have
a 523-255 RY deficit for the season, altho Palmer was back in form a bit, with
286 PYs, after a combined 223 in his first 2 starts. The Bengals have reached
20 pts in just 2 of their last 8 games, with the dog covering 10-2 in their last
dozen outings. Meshes nicely with Browns' spectacular 16-2 ATS log after
allowing 27+ pts. And Cincy is 1-10 ATS at home vs a foe off a DD SU loss.
Buffalo 34 - ST LOUIS 13 - (4:05) -- Until things change, there is only one way to
go when the Rams take the field. They are now not only on a 3-16 SU slide, but
are 3-15-1 ATS since last year, accumulating a 116-29 pt deficit just this year,
as well as allowing 39.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. They have yet to reach 200
PYs, have a 77-35 FD deficit, as well as a total yard 1,374-607 short end. The
Bills are 3-0 for the first time since '92, & enter off 25-10 FD & 34:27-25:33
time edges, but a narrow 24-23 win. Lynch & Edwards have this "O" purring.
Buff 17-9 ATS lately, & 26-8 ATS off a win of <3 pts. Extension of Ram futility.
CHICAGO 20 - Philadelphia 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Check it out. Nine sacks for
the Eagles in their win over the Steelers. Philly had been held below 18 pts on
10 occasions LY, but opened with 38 & 37 pt outbursts. However, Westbrook
is hurting (ankle: just 5 carries vs the Packers), & McNabb was shaken up as
well. The Bears must regroup off blowing a 10-pt lead in the final 3:15 to the
Bucs, losing despite a 158-47 RY edge. Forte is now at 304 RYs. The Bears
are +68? pts ATS in their last 6 games, & the dog is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in
Chicago tilts. And the Bears are 13-0 ATS HDs off 2 losses vs a foe off a win.
CAROLINA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- We know that this one bucks prevailing
wisdom whenever the Panthers take the field, namely sticking with the dog, as
the pup is now 54-29 ATS in Carolina games lately. As if that weren't enough,
the visitor is on an 8-0 spread run in Panther division games. But the time is
now for Carolina to come storming back, following their dismal play at Minny, in
which Delhomme was sacked 5 times, with key fumbles & 12 penalties putting
the nails in that particular coffin. The Falcs have been splendid at home with
Ryan 21-of-31, but he was just 13-of-31 with 2 picks in his lone RG. Ditto RB
Turner: 324 RYs at home, but just 42 away. Falcons are 4-11 ATS off scoring
28+ pts, & 1-7 ATS Sept dogs off a win of more than 7 pts. Carolina the play.
Denver 30 - KANSAS CITY 27 - (1:00) -- Broncos 3-0 for first time since '03, but
that "D" sure is vulnerable, a they've allowed 28 ppg, the most for any AFC
team, & stingier than only the hapless Lions & Rams. Cutler a splendid 8/2 for
the year, with Marshall snagging 24 passes the past 2 weeks. Note that this is
Denver's 2nd division RG, & that they won their first such setup, 41-14. The
Chiefs have dropped 12 straight on the field, with Thigpen an anemic 27-of-73
thus far, so hardly the answer. KC: just 12.2 ppg in its last 11 games. Sure,
Johnson motored for 121 yds last week, but still a 38-14 loss. The host is 8-2
ATS in Bronco games, but the visitor is 10-3 ATS in Chief contests. Denver is
17-9 off allowing 30+ pts. Chiefs are 11-0 ATS in division play, off allowing 34+
pts, & 36-13 ATS as HDs. And backing Denver as chalk not profitable of late.
JACKSONVILLE 22 - Houston 19 - (1:00) -- Jags avoided 0-3 start on 51-yd
Scobee FG in final 0:04 vs the Colts. Not only that, but their overland game
came to life with Jones-Drew & Taylor both over 100 RYs. Throw in a 16-of-22
showing for Garrard, along with a 41:35-18:25 time edge, & shades of '07
beckon. Texans still searching for missing ingredient, after managing only 12
pts after getting inside the Titan 14 six times. Schaub: just 1 TD pass, with 5
INTs so far, & check a 69-29 scoring deficit. But also check Slaton with 116
RYs (6.4 ypr) vs Tennessee. Houston has a 277-148 pt deficit in its last 8
RGs, but is 10-2 ATS in division play off a pair of losses. We'll take the points.
Arizona 20 - NEW YORK JETS 16 - (1:00) -- Well it had to happen. No TOs for
the Cards in their first 2 games of the season: 2 wins & covers. But 2 miscues
at Washington, as they tried to go 3-0 for the 1st time since '74, with a 24-17
loss the result. And that one also snapped their 10-game streak of scoring at
least 20 pts, but 'Zona is still scoring at a 30.7 ppg clip over its last 11 contests.
And Warner is going along decently, with 6 TDs & only 1 pick for the season.
The Jets are in off their Monday Nighter with the Chargers, & are just 8-23 ATS
as Sept HFs. The Cardinals, meanwhile are 16-6 ATS off a SU loss of <8 pts.
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 13 - (1:00) -- Wow! After failing to reach
18 pts on 13 occasions since LY, the Niners explode for 33 & 31 pts in back-toback
weeks. Check their 35:54-24:06 time edge in their win over the Lions,
with Gore cranking out 130 RYs, & O'Sullivan tossing a pair of TDs (no INTs).
First of 3 HGs for the Saints, who haven't normally done all that well as hosts
(12-24 ATS run, & 6-15 ATS as a HF off a SU loss), but who've succeeded
nicely vs the Niners: 9-2 ATS of late, including LY's 31-10 win in 'Frisco. The
Saints nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit at Denver, with Brees
& Bush leading the way to 27 FDs & >500 yds. We'll call for it to continue here.
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16 - (1:00) -- No questioning the fine play of the
Titans, as they stand at 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by 10, 18, & 14? pts.
Are 3-0 for just the 3rd time, & have held their last 7 opponents under 18 pts.
And check Collins' 28-of-47 the past couple of weeks. But the Vikes are rarely
out of a game, with their 2 losses this year coming by just 3 &1? pts. Not only
that, but Frerotte (for Jackson) has breathed new life into this team, with RB
Peterson now at 340 yds. And check allowing only 25 & 47 RYs past 2 wks.
This could easily go down to the final gun, with pts at a premium. Mild dog call.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Battle of old NFC Central powers
meeting here. Buccaneer QB Griese set a franchise record by throwing no
less than 67 passes, in Tampa's OT upset of the Bears, connecting on 38 of
them for 407 yds, altho 3 wound up in Chicago hands. Tampa trailed 24-14
with just 3:15 remaining in that one, by the way. The Pack couldn't get it done
at home vs the Cowboys, but are still a formidable play, covering 16-6-1 lately,
& 20-5 SU since the windup of the '06 campaign. Bucs are 32-17 ATS as non
division hosts, while the Pack is 0-8 ATS as a RD off a SU loss to NFL East foe.
DALLAS 30 - Washington 17 - (4:15) -- Home team is the way to go in 'Skin
games thus far, as Washington has compiled 53 pts, 46 FDs, & 778 yds the
past 2 weeks (both played at Fedex). But in their only RG, they were held to
just 11 FDs in that opening day loss to the Giants. Campbell is in the groove,
with a nice 69.7% completion rate the past 2 wks (46-of-66), & has thrown for
4 TDs, without an INT. But taking to the road vs this dedicated Cowboy outfit is
a bit too much. Check 488 & 453 yds in 2 of their 3 outings, with Romo at 5
TDs already. 'Boys are only 10-21 ATS as DD chalks lately, but mild chalk call.
MONDAY
PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have
opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they
allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs;
631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the
Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 RYs
the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted
a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7
ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.
Pointwise - Pro
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- It continues. Thus far, the visitor in
games involving the Raiders is a perfect 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by a
combined total of 51 pts. Oakland actually led the Bills, 23-14, with 4 minutes
remaining, before that collapse. We say "actually", because the Raiders had a
25-10 FD deficit, while coming from 300 RYs at KC to just 98 at Buffalo. The
Raiders catch the Chargers off their Monday Nighter with the Jets, but that
should matter little, a Oakland is 6-15 ATS off a loss of <3 pts, is 2-15 ATS as
a division host, is 1-9 ATS vs the Chargers, & a perfect 0-6 ATS as series host.
Cleveland 17 - CINCINNATI 16 - (1:00) -- A couple of very disappointing teams
meet here. The Browns have said good-bye to LY's super "O", scoring just 8,
14, 20, 10, 6, & 10 pts in their last 6 outings (11.3 ppg). No rushing "O", & in
off just 11 FDs in loss to the Ravens. Cincy took the Giants into OT, but have
a 523-255 RY deficit for the season, altho Palmer was back in form a bit, with
286 PYs, after a combined 223 in his first 2 starts. The Bengals have reached
20 pts in just 2 of their last 8 games, with the dog covering 10-2 in their last
dozen outings. Meshes nicely with Browns' spectacular 16-2 ATS log after
allowing 27+ pts. And Cincy is 1-10 ATS at home vs a foe off a DD SU loss.
Buffalo 34 - ST LOUIS 13 - (4:05) -- Until things change, there is only one way to
go when the Rams take the field. They are now not only on a 3-16 SU slide, but
are 3-15-1 ATS since last year, accumulating a 116-29 pt deficit just this year,
as well as allowing 39.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. They have yet to reach 200
PYs, have a 77-35 FD deficit, as well as a total yard 1,374-607 short end. The
Bills are 3-0 for the first time since '92, & enter off 25-10 FD & 34:27-25:33
time edges, but a narrow 24-23 win. Lynch & Edwards have this "O" purring.
Buff 17-9 ATS lately, & 26-8 ATS off a win of <3 pts. Extension of Ram futility.
CHICAGO 20 - Philadelphia 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Check it out. Nine sacks for
the Eagles in their win over the Steelers. Philly had been held below 18 pts on
10 occasions LY, but opened with 38 & 37 pt outbursts. However, Westbrook
is hurting (ankle: just 5 carries vs the Packers), & McNabb was shaken up as
well. The Bears must regroup off blowing a 10-pt lead in the final 3:15 to the
Bucs, losing despite a 158-47 RY edge. Forte is now at 304 RYs. The Bears
are +68? pts ATS in their last 6 games, & the dog is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in
Chicago tilts. And the Bears are 13-0 ATS HDs off 2 losses vs a foe off a win.
CAROLINA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- We know that this one bucks prevailing
wisdom whenever the Panthers take the field, namely sticking with the dog, as
the pup is now 54-29 ATS in Carolina games lately. As if that weren't enough,
the visitor is on an 8-0 spread run in Panther division games. But the time is
now for Carolina to come storming back, following their dismal play at Minny, in
which Delhomme was sacked 5 times, with key fumbles & 12 penalties putting
the nails in that particular coffin. The Falcs have been splendid at home with
Ryan 21-of-31, but he was just 13-of-31 with 2 picks in his lone RG. Ditto RB
Turner: 324 RYs at home, but just 42 away. Falcons are 4-11 ATS off scoring
28+ pts, & 1-7 ATS Sept dogs off a win of more than 7 pts. Carolina the play.
Denver 30 - KANSAS CITY 27 - (1:00) -- Broncos 3-0 for first time since '03, but
that "D" sure is vulnerable, a they've allowed 28 ppg, the most for any AFC
team, & stingier than only the hapless Lions & Rams. Cutler a splendid 8/2 for
the year, with Marshall snagging 24 passes the past 2 weeks. Note that this is
Denver's 2nd division RG, & that they won their first such setup, 41-14. The
Chiefs have dropped 12 straight on the field, with Thigpen an anemic 27-of-73
thus far, so hardly the answer. KC: just 12.2 ppg in its last 11 games. Sure,
Johnson motored for 121 yds last week, but still a 38-14 loss. The host is 8-2
ATS in Bronco games, but the visitor is 10-3 ATS in Chief contests. Denver is
17-9 off allowing 30+ pts. Chiefs are 11-0 ATS in division play, off allowing 34+
pts, & 36-13 ATS as HDs. And backing Denver as chalk not profitable of late.
JACKSONVILLE 22 - Houston 19 - (1:00) -- Jags avoided 0-3 start on 51-yd
Scobee FG in final 0:04 vs the Colts. Not only that, but their overland game
came to life with Jones-Drew & Taylor both over 100 RYs. Throw in a 16-of-22
showing for Garrard, along with a 41:35-18:25 time edge, & shades of '07
beckon. Texans still searching for missing ingredient, after managing only 12
pts after getting inside the Titan 14 six times. Schaub: just 1 TD pass, with 5
INTs so far, & check a 69-29 scoring deficit. But also check Slaton with 116
RYs (6.4 ypr) vs Tennessee. Houston has a 277-148 pt deficit in its last 8
RGs, but is 10-2 ATS in division play off a pair of losses. We'll take the points.
Arizona 20 - NEW YORK JETS 16 - (1:00) -- Well it had to happen. No TOs for
the Cards in their first 2 games of the season: 2 wins & covers. But 2 miscues
at Washington, as they tried to go 3-0 for the 1st time since '74, with a 24-17
loss the result. And that one also snapped their 10-game streak of scoring at
least 20 pts, but 'Zona is still scoring at a 30.7 ppg clip over its last 11 contests.
And Warner is going along decently, with 6 TDs & only 1 pick for the season.
The Jets are in off their Monday Nighter with the Chargers, & are just 8-23 ATS
as Sept HFs. The Cardinals, meanwhile are 16-6 ATS off a SU loss of <8 pts.
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 13 - (1:00) -- Wow! After failing to reach
18 pts on 13 occasions since LY, the Niners explode for 33 & 31 pts in back-toback
weeks. Check their 35:54-24:06 time edge in their win over the Lions,
with Gore cranking out 130 RYs, & O'Sullivan tossing a pair of TDs (no INTs).
First of 3 HGs for the Saints, who haven't normally done all that well as hosts
(12-24 ATS run, & 6-15 ATS as a HF off a SU loss), but who've succeeded
nicely vs the Niners: 9-2 ATS of late, including LY's 31-10 win in 'Frisco. The
Saints nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit at Denver, with Brees
& Bush leading the way to 27 FDs & >500 yds. We'll call for it to continue here.
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16 - (1:00) -- No questioning the fine play of the
Titans, as they stand at 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by 10, 18, & 14? pts.
Are 3-0 for just the 3rd time, & have held their last 7 opponents under 18 pts.
And check Collins' 28-of-47 the past couple of weeks. But the Vikes are rarely
out of a game, with their 2 losses this year coming by just 3 &1? pts. Not only
that, but Frerotte (for Jackson) has breathed new life into this team, with RB
Peterson now at 340 yds. And check allowing only 25 & 47 RYs past 2 wks.
This could easily go down to the final gun, with pts at a premium. Mild dog call.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Battle of old NFC Central powers
meeting here. Buccaneer QB Griese set a franchise record by throwing no
less than 67 passes, in Tampa's OT upset of the Bears, connecting on 38 of
them for 407 yds, altho 3 wound up in Chicago hands. Tampa trailed 24-14
with just 3:15 remaining in that one, by the way. The Pack couldn't get it done
at home vs the Cowboys, but are still a formidable play, covering 16-6-1 lately,
& 20-5 SU since the windup of the '06 campaign. Bucs are 32-17 ATS as non
division hosts, while the Pack is 0-8 ATS as a RD off a SU loss to NFL East foe.
DALLAS 30 - Washington 17 - (4:15) -- Home team is the way to go in 'Skin
games thus far, as Washington has compiled 53 pts, 46 FDs, & 778 yds the
past 2 weeks (both played at Fedex). But in their only RG, they were held to
just 11 FDs in that opening day loss to the Giants. Campbell is in the groove,
with a nice 69.7% completion rate the past 2 wks (46-of-66), & has thrown for
4 TDs, without an INT. But taking to the road vs this dedicated Cowboy outfit is
a bit too much. Check 488 & 453 yds in 2 of their 3 outings, with Romo at 5
TDs already. 'Boys are only 10-21 ATS as DD chalks lately, but mild chalk call.
MONDAY
PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have
opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they
allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs;
631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the
Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 RYs
the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted
a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7
ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.
Pointwise - College
Pointwise - College
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the
Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note
26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114
pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment
for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. And
check overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip
tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O",
ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but
check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheets
run; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by
145? pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in
their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4
TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now
have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs,
1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise
Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of
Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for
the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their
last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last
6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from
57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBs
Ponder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166
RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by
the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a
227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs
by 38, 18?, 49? pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a
rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67? of late,
with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,
including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC
Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in
the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78? pts ATS in last 5 tilts.
Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown
for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when
UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59? pts. Brown now at 716
yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt,
led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &
still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways so
far, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final
2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt
massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87? pt
ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined
games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for
Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuck
it to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB
Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet,
with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is
17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1? pts, but the Orange
have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC
team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs Ball
St. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted.
Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, &
note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs in
that one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has
10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not
have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined
affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps,
who've covered their last 3 games by 22? pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars,
who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds
in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8
ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at
Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 yds
thus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow.
Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore
yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengals
have covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far.
RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn.
Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O"
TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog
is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77? pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss
to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 &
21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor
(true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 in
the 4th. OSt now minus 69? pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2
TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games
involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so why
not another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just
138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking
28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely
can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held
SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:
49? pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38
(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly
blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just
22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149
yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered
Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns.
GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up short
in SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing
just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land
on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice.
Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at
404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that the
Wolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six TOs
in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in
rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact
is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49? pts ahead of the line in MD
games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no
TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with
just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54
in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the
TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by
the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O",
& 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points),
& are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are
79? pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely
balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for
699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the
early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW,
leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game
slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a
safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run,
altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG
for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs,
either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games),
the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson
TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D"
(122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out
(ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined
in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56
pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY,
with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping
6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SDiegoSt
stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104
RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, &
in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D"
(32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers
& QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10
outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in
SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in
4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes
last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks,
due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in
LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for
the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, &
that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos
are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with
3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY
deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
Pointwise - College
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the
Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note
26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114
pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment
for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. And
check overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip
tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O",
ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but
check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheets
run; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by
145? pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in
their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4
TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now
have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs,
1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise
Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of
Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for
the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their
last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last
6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from
57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBs
Ponder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166
RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by
the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a
227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs
by 38, 18?, 49? pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a
rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67? of late,
with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,
including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC
Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in
the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78? pts ATS in last 5 tilts.
Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown
for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when
UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59? pts. Brown now at 716
yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt,
led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &
still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways so
far, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final
2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt
massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87? pt
ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined
games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for
Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuck
it to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB
Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet,
with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is
17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1? pts, but the Orange
have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC
team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs Ball
St. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted.
Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, &
note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs in
that one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has
10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not
have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined
affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps,
who've covered their last 3 games by 22? pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars,
who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds
in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8
ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at
Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 yds
thus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow.
Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore
yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengals
have covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far.
RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn.
Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O"
TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog
is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77? pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss
to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 &
21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor
(true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 in
the 4th. OSt now minus 69? pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2
TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games
involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so why
not another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just
138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking
28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely
can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held
SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:
49? pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38
(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly
blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just
22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149
yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered
Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns.
GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up short
in SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing
just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land
on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice.
Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at
404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that the
Wolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six TOs
in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in
rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact
is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49? pts ahead of the line in MD
games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no
TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with
just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54
in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the
TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by
the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O",
& 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points),
& are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are
79? pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely
balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for
699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the
early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW,
leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game
slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a
safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run,
altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG
for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs,
either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games),
the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson
TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D"
(122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out
(ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined
in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56
pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY,
with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping
6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SDiegoSt
stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104
RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, &
in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D"
(32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers
& QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10
outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in
SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in
4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes
last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks,
due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in
LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for
the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, &
that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos
are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with
3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY
deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
