Rhody Joe's Golf Picks

[RhodyJoe]

2016 PGA JOHN DEERE CLASSIC GOLF PREDICTION

Ready to bet this week on the John Deere Classic Odds? The 2016 John Deere Classic comes our way from Illinois this week as some of the top golfers on the planet (minus the Olympians and top 5 in the world!!!) tee it up looking for that huge payday at the end of the week. TPC Deere Run will be the scene ? a 7,268 yards, par 71 that has traditionally been easy on the PGA pros ? third easiest pat 71 they see annually. Yup ? the winner here will absolutely have to go low.


When: August 11 ? 14, 2016 on Golf Channel/CBS
Where: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Ill.
Purse: $4,800,000 Winner Share: $846,000
Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth

Fairways are easy to hit here as are greens and once on the surface putting stats have been off the charts. It should be a scoring bonanza again this week ?let?s take a look at who should thrive.
2016 John Deere Classic Favorites:

Zach Johnson +650
Has always been a factor at Deere Run ? he has averaged 66.57 strokes per round the last seven years which includes a win in 2012, three seconds and two thirds in the last six starts ? wow! His recent form is certainly decent ? four top 20s in his last five starts overall.
Track history is definitely on Zach?s side here ? awfully tough to bet against.

Jon Rahm +1200
Newly turned Spanish pro has been impressive indeed ? five starts with five cuts made ? a tie for third at the Quicken Loans National, a tie for second at the RBC Canadian Open and a T25 at TPC River Highlands.
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Rahm looks like the next big thing ? he could get his break through this week just like some guy like Jordan Spieth did in 2013.

Steve Stricker +1200
Three- time winner here ? 2009, 2010 and 2011 has been good in limited action this year including a T2 at the St. Jude and a solo fourth at the British Open. He has been inside the top 15 six of the last seven years here including his three wins ? incredible success on this track.
In a watered-down field it is pretty hard not to give Stricker a long, hard look.

Kevin Na +2000
Has been just OK in his last three starts ? T27-T22-T22 but has the game to make some noise this week. His best effort lately was a solo seventh at the US Open and his last appearance in this event resulted in a T13 in 2014.
He is currently 20th in adjusted scoring; 31st in birdies or better, 18th in scoring average and is 11th in FedEx Cup points. Na has been solid and should be visible on leaderboards this week.

Daniel Summerhays +2200
Finished T11 at TPC River Highlands and also had a solo third at Baltusrol ? good form as we head into this week. He had a T8 the US Open as well. He has been very good at TPC Deere Run ? inside the top 15 in each of the past three years, tying for fourth in 2014.
Summerhays has putting up a storm lately? my guess is that he has a good finish this week.

Ryan Moore +2200
Is one of those guys that thrives on courses he likes ? count TPC Deere Run as one such track. He has finished inside the top 25 here the last four years and hasn?t missed a cut in seven appearances.
He?s of the premiere wedge players on TOUR (Fifth in birdies or better from inside 125 yards) and enters off a T17 at TPC River Highlands which happens to be another one of his favorite tracks.
Call it a hunch but I think Moore is in for a great week.

Robert Garrigus +5000
Has been solid the last two-plus months recording four top 11s. He has been OK on this track as well ? three top 25s in his last six appearances ? a T3 and T4 two of the past three seasons.
His stats line up well here as well ? 22nd on TOUR in GIR and birdies-or-better percentage.

John Senden +6600
Former winner here has been decent overall lately finishing inside the top 25 in two of his last three starts including a nice run at the PGA Championship. He?s also recorded a T12 on this track in 2010 and a T4 in 2012.
Although Senden hasn?t been terrific lately, something tells me he shows up on a track that he?s had the most success on.

Pretty hard not to go with Zach Johnson this week but I?m going a little down the board here ? Ryan Moore at +2200 gets the nod.

Distance isn?t an issue here ? a quality short game is. Add in his good history here and I like Moore to provide a nice payday for his backers.

My sleeper is Robert Garrigus at +5000. His recent form has been good and his course history is nothing to sneeze at. Garrigus has the perfect game to contend here good value at +5000.

 

[RhodyJoe]

2016 Wyndham Championship

2016 Wyndham Championship

2016 Wyndham Championship Field
156 Players | Top 70 and Ties Make The Cut

Now that the Olympics have finally passed, it?s time to refocus on the FedEx Cup. The Wyndham Championship is the final event to make a move into the Top 125 of the standings and earn a spot in The Barclays week. Normally a watered-down tournament, the Wyndham has actually drawn a solid contingent of top end talent this year.

Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Danny Lee, Graham DeLaet, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Alex Cejka, and David Hearn all hopped a flight from Rio to Greensboro. Normally I?d wager there would have been a stopover in Atlanta, but I?ll assume they chartered. Golfers ain?t poor. Along with Reed, Fowler and RCB, 11 others inside the Top 40 of the world rankings are teeing off at Sedgefield: Jimmy Walker, Hideki Matsuyama, JB Holmes, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker, Scott Piercy, Kevin Kisner, Justin Thomas, Bill Haas, Kevin Na, and Shane Lowry.

Beyond the top names, the mid-tier is padded with the likes of Jason Dufner, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, and William McGirt, along with SUPER ROOK Jon Rahm and the newest PGA TOUR member Wesley Bryan, fresh off T8 in his first official start.
2016 Wyndham Championship Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Par 4 Efficiency 400-450 Yards
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
2016 Wyndham Championship Course
Sedgefield CC | Par 70 | 7,127 Yards

In terms of length and scoring potential, Sedgefield CC resembles the layouts the players have become accustomed to the past two weeks ? TPC Deere Run and TPC River Highlands ? only with Bermudagrass opposed to Bentgrass. Sedgefield transformed its greens from Bentgrass to Bermudagrass in 2012. Only a Par 70, players of any length will have the ability to challenge for the title. Just ask last year?s winner, 104-year-old Davis Love III. The big difference between Sedgefield and the other two tracks is the designer ? Donald Ross. While the fairways are just as easy to hit as the previous two weeks, the greens will pose a much bigger threat to the field. Yes, it?s a different grass type, but the actual surfaces will be much tougher and place more of an emphasis on strong putting and short game. Not to insinuate this won?t be a birdie fest, it most certainly will (Sedgefield ranked 40th of 52 courses in difficulty last year), but the 20-footers that became routine at the John Deere Classic will be absent in Greensboro. A Ross stable, the greens at Sedgefield mimic a sine curve with their extreme undulation and slope from back to front, with many falling off the edges into collection areas. Hence Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green popping up in the key stats.

Just 7,127 yards, the field will have myriad options off the tee. However angles will be critical. Where Pete Dye courses are known for tampering with the players? line of sight, Ross venues demand proper positioning off the tee to make the pins accessible. Course management and accuracy skills will need to be on display to continuously generate makable birdie opportunities, especially on the shorter Par 4s. Par 4 birdies or better will be key, but with eight of the 12 Par 4s measuring between 400 and 450 yards, focusing in on performance form that range will identify some hidden names.
2016 Wyndham Championship Picks

Ryan Moore ? Despite my utter distain for Moore, all of which stems from the brief period when he decided wearing a tie was peak sartorial form, it?s hard to deny how good he?s been recently. He followed up a T17 at Travelers with a win at John Deere and sits inside the Top 30 on TOUR in driving accuracy, putting, Par 3 birdies or better, scrambling from the rough, and Par 4 efficiency from the key range. Oh, he?s also won this event in the past (2009) and added a T10 last season too.

Rickie Fowler ? Weirdly, even with bigger names lurking about the grounds, the Yahoo A-List is fairly depleted. I?m not sold on Rickie or Justin Thomas in this spot, so I?ll turn to Henley. He was actually in the lead Sunday at Travelers until an unfortunate stretch on the back nine dropped him all the way down to T11. Still, with that result, and a T22 at the PGA Championship, it appears he?s come out of his season-long swoon. You know what? Fuck it. Rickie?s a class player in this field and I?d hate myself if he ran away with this and I had Henley on my roster.

William McGirt ? You can craft the narrative that McGirt?s a local guy in the midst of a career year, and I?d buy it. However, I also buy he?s an excellent fit for this course. He?s straight (29th), putts the light out (22nd), and has achieved success here in his last two trips ? T14/T8. And, while his overall Par 4 numbers are solid (20th), he absolutely kills it from the key range (4th).

Jason Dufner ? Maker of 15 of his past 16 cuts, Dufner has started to pop up near the top of leaderboards again lately. He?s posted T25s in four of his last seven outings (including Two T10s), and if he can figure out how to situate himself off the tee, his elevated SG: ATG (21st), GIR (12th), birdie average (20th), and fairway proximity (9th) should compensate for his horrifying flatstick (177th).

Patrick Reed ? With no finish worse than T13 in any of his past five starts, Reed returns to the site of his PGA breakthrough searching for his first win in over a year. An elite scrambler (7th), a product of his green side work (8th), Reed simply needs his putter to get hot for just three rounds to walk away with this event.

Webb Simpson ? Much like Dufner, if Webb can putt around field-average for the week, he?ll have a chance to become a two-time winner of the Wyndham. He?s clearly in form at the moment (T34/T13/T39/6th/MC/T11/T3), and checks out everywhere that doesn?t involve being on the green: 7th SG: ATG, 11th SG: T2G, 26th SG: ATG, 11th Proximity, and 7th P4 Birdies or Better.

Kevin Na ? I went to the Na well last week and he eventually came through, parlaying a final round 64 into a T8. Since his only real knock, 183rd in driving distance, won?t be a factor this week, it?s time to ride one of the TOUR?s premier Par 4 players ? 9th in P4 birdies or better, 5th in P4 scoring, and 5th on P4s from 400-450 yards ? who enters with five consecutive T30 finishes.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello ? There?s a temptation take a course horse like Bill Haas, or one of the upstart youngsters like Rahm or Bryan, but siding with an elite international player like RCB works for me. The Spaniard has reeled off nine straight cuts, with three T10s (including a T5 in Rio) and would rank highly in SG:T2G, accuracy, GIR, and Par 4 scoring? if he had enough PGA rounds to qualify.