Risky Bidness--very boring, long read

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Mephisto

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One of my longterm interests/hobbies has been accepting/evaluating/absorbing risks, and that quite naturally led me later to sports betting. I have known a number of entrepreneurs over many years and have been one myself and practically everyone without exception has taken on more than a fair amount of risk which ipso facto pretty much makes them one. But even in their private finances they take the same risks, at least that's been my perception.

Over the years i've met a few sports bettors. Interestingly, my observation (and it is just that; an observation) is that sports bettors are all over the map when it comes to accepting suitable risk in their daily lives. Some (closer to the way i am) take a lot of risks and others are content to play it safe and it's probably a bell curve.

The reason i think this is worthy to discuss is that i've always believed that by not accepting reasonable risks you are increasing the chance that you'll be at that 9-5 job the rest of your life until social security kicks in (which you may know will not be at 65 but 67 or higher for those born '60 or later (or something like that) and that's assuming it's even there when you or i reach that age. exceptions to this of course, if you're plastic surgeon pulling in a half million per annum then no need to worry about what car insurance to buy but most of us arent in that situation.

Here are five risks that i think are worthy of taking almost always (and i've been accepting/absorbing these risks for over 25 yrs in some cases without adverse consequences).

1. increase your home mortgage deductible to the maximum. on the current home that i have i went in initially to the agent and he only offered me the low to mid range deductibles so i mentioned something like, 'Just for laughs, what's the highest deductible you've got?' and he said it was $5,000. So i took that and saved litererally thousands of dollars over less than 4 yrs over taking the low to mid range deductible he was pushing, and the agent was more than a little dismayed because that cut into his profit margin but too bad.

2. life insurance is overrated. cash value life insurance is almost never a worthwhile endeavor and term insurance is even overrated except under obvious conditions (like you've got underage kids and/or a wife that's not able to bring home a decent income). i like the Grouch Marx line of why would i like to belong to a club that would have me as a member. So if the life insurance agent is offering me a policy that he's designed perfectly for me, i pretty much know it's not in my best interest.

3. staying with insurance-- health insurance. Consider catastrophic health insurance, again with deductibles that are very high. the one i've got is, you guessed it, $5,000. a healthy male under 50 without serious medical problems or family history of whatever isn't likely to benefit paying for health insurance with a low deductible, although if you get through an employer you may not have a great choice, not really sure there. and tons of exception, wouldn't cut corners on insurance for your children of course and females have more reason to have more frequent exams of course. also assuming you're not an alaskan lobster fisherman or smoke or involved in high risk whatever. not giving advice, just something to think about. Of course if you need an appendectomy it'll not work out so great but hey you'll only need that appendectomy once.

4. buy used cars instead of new. it's really not that risky to buy a low mileage used car and you can always work a deal with your mechanic to pay him $50 to check out the car before buying if you're oblivious to cars as i am. on the outside chance anyone here's heard of andrew tobias, he's well known for saying the new car smell is the most expensive fragrance in the world; and after all every car is used after they're driven off the lot and into your driveway. as an aside if you can get used to paying cash for cars you'll have a lot more control on your auto insurance as well.

5. know what people/companies are charging you to "manage your money". i'm really thinking about your tax deferred mutual funds through your IRAs/ qualified plans or whatever. i'm not exactly sure of the following numbers but they're ballpark. the annual expense ratio of morgan stanley is something like 1.5% but through Vanguard it's like 0.5% So you're paying an extra percentage point annually for probably not much help if at any at all and a unmanaged index fund will usually outperform a managed fund anyway. Significance is if you've got a $100,000 portfolio you're paying an extra $1,000 a year to morgan stanley versus vanguard. again, your company plan may not have a lot of options but if you switch jobs you can move that money to a more desirable company.

there's a lot more i could list if i got more specific but these are in my humble opinion "no brainers". and for those who want to tell me the exceptions to these, well that's fine, but just remember the exception to the rule is still not the rule. And i continue to look for opportunities to take a perceived small risk to save money where the potential adverse consequences are not catastrophic.

Or if the event is catastrophic but extremely remote to just not worry about it, like the chance you'll get West Niles Virus if you're bitten by a mosquito is potentially catastrophic but that doesn't mean you should wear mosquito netting to work.

And there's clearly other issues, the 70 yr old widow shouldn't be exposed to the same risk that her 25 yr old grandson is. And of course sleeping well at night is worth something but remember the insurance industry wants you to feel fearful without them (and conversely to feel safe with them--after all, you're in good hands with allstate; and like a good neighbor, state farm is there).

And of course taking a risk in and of itself itn't probably very smart as evidenced by the stock market bust in tech stocks a number of years ago and many buying over valued real estate with ARMs and lots of other examples.


-- did i mention the disclaimer that this isn't advice for anyone at all---do your own due diligence. past results are not indicative of future performance. your mileage may vary.

Finally, this post was in part about telling you something i got from Nolan a few yrs ago, he was writing about the Kyl bill or something similar and he wrote (and I'm perhaps paraphrasing), 'Gambling is the great metaphor of life.' This has become one of my favorite sayings, so Thanks Nolan!
 

Agent 0659

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You are SO SO wrong about the Insurance parts you have NO idea what you are talking about. I dont have time to reply right now, but when I do in the next day or two I will cut you up. To be specific I'm talking about the Life Insurance part. You are somewhat correct on the other two but I will discuss later.
 
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Agent 0659

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Yes, first of all Insurance agents dont have PROFIT MARGINS. The deal with Insurance is it costs what it costs. As an Agent, I cant sell you a $600 policy for $700 and "pocket" the difference. There is no mark up in the Insurance business. Not from an Agents standpoint. If I charge you too much you will get a refund if I dont charge enough you will get a bill. Thats it, We plug the information into the holes and it tells us the price. Secondly, Insurance companies ENCOURAGE higher deductibles. It cuts down on the maintenence type claims and keeps loss ratios down. I try to help my insureds choose a deductible that is right for them. Usually never less than 1,000 in todays age but VERY RARELY 5,000 or higher (some offer 10,000). You really need to be able to afford that if you have a claim. I would hate to see an unrepaired roof leading to future problems that wont be covered either as well as various other problems. However if you cannot READILY AFFORD 5,000 then why gamble to save 1-200 a year when your home is in most cases the biggest investment you will ever make? You dont want to protect that correctly?
Do you also carry small liability limits on Auto coverage to keep premiums down? If so you are wrong for that also. Is just not worth it guys to risk in these things hes speaking about. Gamble in the market, gamble on a game, dont gamble on your insurance. I have seen devistated people who didnt buy the right coverage. DONT LET IT BE YOU. I dont even want to get into the Life Insurance part or I will get Carpel Tunnel Syndrome :mj07: Average homeowner will have a claim every 7 years FYI so do the math when choosing deductibles.
 
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homedog

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I have had a house for 12 years and never had a claim.

I have had car(s) for 22 years and never had a claim.

What do you suggest I do?
 

Agent 0659

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homedog said:
I have had a house for 12 years and never had a claim.

I have had car(s) for 22 years and never had a claim.

What do you suggest I do?


Drive faster and move :mj07:
 
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Mephisto

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Hey Agent,

Not surprised there is disagreement from someone and that's fine. You have to have readily your deductible, that's for sure but is $5,000 really that hard to save up, if so then just keep barely getting by with low deductibles, fine by me. What i have iis clearly catastrophic insurance and almost by definition catastrophic doesn't happen very often does it? I mean do you really have major roof repair every damn year? Absorb some risk is all I'm saying.

Differences in deductibles don't save you 100-200 per year at least not with my house, don't have the numbers in front of me but i'll call my home insurance agent to get those numbers (i called his office but he doesn't work today), but i've got some other committments so might take me a few days.

I really don't have a problem with anybody buying insurance for anything at anytime. I'm not giving anybody advice, i'm just saying what's worked for me over 25 years.

Average homeowner will have a claim every 7 years

Sorry, but you can't get away with "statistics" that come from your industry to, oh by the way, prove your point. I don't buy that at all and even if so what's the relevance. Of course you'll have more claims if you're selling very low deductibles vs a large deductible. But in the long run the home owner always comes out ahead with higher deductibles (except for the rarest of exceptions to the rule that insurance agents are more than willing to mention).

Insurance companies work on fear as based by your post. You sell insurance right? What else would I expect you to say.


Didn't comment on auto insurance, that's a differenct issue for me, always keep the concept of "catastrophic" in mind but again I didn't mention and won't debate auto insurance.

edit--ok,technically i mentioned auto insurance, but just meant that when you pay cash for your autos you can disregard collision if you wanted to, i.e. you have more options when you don't finance.

Please do take the time to inform me on why life insurance is so important, aside from the obvious incidences I've already laid out. I'm assuming you sell life insurance too, right?

Thanks........
 
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homedog

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Insurance companies make their money by conning people into low deductibles.

If you add up your insurance premiums + any out of pocket deductibles - monies collected from insurance provider it should give you a good idea of where you stand.
 

Mags

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Wasn't going to get into this, but...

Wasn't going to get into this, but...

homedog said:
Insurance companies make their money by conning people into low deductibles.

If you add up your insurance premiums + any out of pocket deductibles - monies collected from insurance provider it should give you a good idea of where you stand.


Being an actuary (FSA) in individual health insurance for over 17 years, I can tell you that is not true. I can't speak for auto, home or life insurance (not my specialty).

Here's an example... a $500 policy will cost, say $600 more than a $1,000 policy (assume 100% coinsurance after deductible). You would think the cost difference would be less than $500 (to take into account not EVERYBODY hits their deductible).

Well, even though the company will charge (in most cases) more than $500 for the lower deductible - guess what - they will make far more money on the $1,000 deductible.

It's what's called Anti-selection. It occurs in health insurance, and it also occurs in other types such as auto. Heavy utilizers tend to buy lower deductibles, because they know they will be sick. Healthy people buy higher deductibles, as they tend to have less claims.

I can guarantee you, as a % of premiums paid, health insurance companies make a much higher profit margin on higher deductibles than lower deductibles. It's been that way in the last 17 years of my career, and it's not going to change.

Remember, the person who picks their coverage will always know their health insurance needs (and potential upcoming claims) better than the insurance company will when they buy their plan.

There is no way to say "Higher Deductibles are a better choice". It is a completely an individual decision, based on a person's health history, how often they are going to the doc (you know the kind, they have a sniffle and they see the doc), and almost as importantly, how many assets they need to protect. Because, after all, any type of insurance is really just a way to protect your assets in case you run into a catrostrophic claim. Self insurance is ALWAYS cheaper than buying insurance - but most people do not have the assets to handle the swings. Which is exactly why insurance was invented to begin with.
 
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homedog

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Health insurance is a completely different animal. No comparison to what we were discussing here.
 

Agent 0659

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homedog said:
Insurance companies make their money by conning people into low deductibles.

If you add up your insurance premiums + any out of pocket deductibles - monies collected from insurance provider it should give you a good idea of where you stand.


This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen you post. Please explain and prove to me HOW Insurance companies make money by "conning" people into lower deductibles :mj07: And I'm pretty sure my previous post mentioned Insurance companies ENCOURAGE high deductibles. Thats what they want you to carry. Do you hear me? Am I making this clear? Can you understand this or should I draw you a picture? Hello? Do you get it? :bigear: If you think Insurance companies make money on premium collected vs claims paid out you again are dead wrong and have no idea what you are talking about. Most Auto/Home companies carry a loss ratio in the neighborhood of 115-140%. Yes that is $1.15-$1.40 paid out on every $1.00 collected.

Memphisito- Why cant I use a statistic "from my industry" as you put it? Its a valid stat. If you can use a half cocked example lined with things that are untrue and have nake absolutely NO sense why cant I use a proven statistic? I mean you really think your agent was mad you chose a higher deductible because it cut into his "profit margin" :nooo: :mj07:
 

homedog

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Most Auto/Home companies carry a loss ratio in the neighborhood of 115-140%. Yes that is $1.15-$1.40 paid out on every $1.00 collected.

Is this a loss-leader? If it is not, it is not very smart business.

I don't claim to be an expert here but the facts are that lower deductibles = higher premiums. Sure this costs the insurance company more when the low deductible makes a claim but it also costs them less when the high deductible makes a claim.

I guess it just depends on who makes more claims.

Insurance companies are not in business to lose money.
 

Agent 0659

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I didnt say they lose money. They MAKE money by the way they are set up, which is the investment structure of what they do with the money. Listen they make money and LOTS of it and in no way would I pretend to say I agree with even 75% of what SOME of these companies do in certain situations. But listening to you two go on about this stuff as if you have any clue what you are talking about is LAUGHABLE. You guys arent even in the neighborhood of being correct.

"If you add up your insurance premiums + any out of pocket deductibles - monies collected from insurance provider it should give you a good idea of where you stand."

Ok so what will you say to the guy who just bought his first home last year, paid his $650 annual premium and it burnt to the ground? His Insurance company paid 147,000 to rebuild his home, 15,000 for debris removal, 65,000 for the personal property inside the home, 5,000 in Fire Dept surcharges, and 35,000 for loss of use so he would have somewhere to live while his home was being rebuilt?
 

homedog

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What does the loss ratio imply then?

I am not arguing that insurance is or isn't necessary (your example of the home burning), only that deductibles are a choice that people can make based on their risk tolerance. I have saved money with high deductibles. That is a fact.

How much money did the home owner lose, based on his deductible, when the house burned down? Well worth the risk in my opinion.
 

Agent 0659

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homedog said:
What does the loss ratio imply then?

I am not arguing that insurance is or isn't necessary (your example of the home burning), only that deductibles are a choice that people can make based on their risk tolerance. I have saved money with high deductibles. That is a fact.

How much money did the home owner lose, based on his deductible, when the house burned down? Well worth the risk in my opinion.


Loss ratio is what these companies have paid out in claims based on premium collected. Some upfront costs such as commision and things of that nature are included in this also. Insurance companies make money from taking your money and investing it. Its almost really that simple. I agree deductibles are a choice, and I AGREE with higher deductibles IF IT FITS THE SITUATION OF THE INSURED. You have no idea how many people are buying homes today and dont have $1,000 in the bank and couldnt afford the deductible if something bad happened. I quote these things EVERYDAY and the difference between $500 and $1,000 deductible is right at 50.00 per year. Almost all of these people have their premium escrowed in their mortgage. $1,000 isnt bad but the jump to $2,500 is impossible for alot of these families IN THEIR CURRENT SITUATION. I review on an annual basis and may recommend a higher deductible in a few years. I wrote a home for 625,000 last week and had no problem with this client choosing the $5,000 deductible. Its an individual thing.
 
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homedog

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Agent 0659 said:
Loss ratio is what these companies have paid out in claims based on premium collected. Some upfront costs such as commision and things of that nature are included in this also. Insurance companies make money from taking your money and investing it. Its almost really that simple. I agree deductibles are a choice, and I AGREE with higher deductibles IF IT FITS THE SITUATION OF THE INSURED. You have no idea how many people are buying homes today and dont have $1,000 in the bank and couldnt afford the deductible if something bad happened. I quote these things EVERYDAY and the difference between $500 and $1,000 deductible is right at 50.00 per year. Almost all of these people have their premium escrowed in their mortgage. $1,000 isnt bad but the jump to $2,500 is impossible for alot of these families IN THEIR CUREENT SITUATION. I review on an annual basis and may recommend a higher deductible in a few years. I wrote a home for 625,000 last week and had no problem with this client choosing the $5,000 deductible. Its an individual thing.

That was a good, informative post.
 
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