RJ over Tito...Easy money?

[Romi]

Happy New Year everybody. 07 was awesome and looking for an even better 08.

Is anybody giving Tito much of a chance here? RJ is a shell of his former self but he still won comfortably over pretenders Hanshaw and Adamu. I didn't give Tito a single round against Wink and I'm not so sure Wink would even get past the much faded Jones. In their primes I felt Jones would have dominated this fight enroute to easy ko. I do give Tito a punchers chance but I think RJ still has enough to avoid the big bombs and dish out some punishment to a smaller aging fighter. I took RJ @-340 which I feel is a little bit of a gift. Any thoughts?

 

[nj]

I made a thread about this after the lines were released.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=309426

My thoughts are still the same, the best bet here is the over 10.5, 5d has over 11.5 at +165 or so.

I think Jones is motivated for a Calzaghe or Hop match and will fight hard, but he?s what 39 now? Training camps will be key in this fight, moreso than usual. If we see any reports we should post them here.

I saw the Hanshaw fight, it was closer than the cards, Hanshaw was just too light-fisted to take advantage of him on the ropes. Jones will be severely drained at 170, and probably spend time on the ropes.

I took Tito at +370 and over 10.5 at +130,I also put Jones as the kicker in several parlays. If you found Jones at ?340, you can probably find a scalp for Tito at +360 if it?s worth it to you.

The easiest money ive seen lately is Malignaggi at ?400. When it opened I couldn?t afford to have money tied up, the line has bloated, some have it at ?800 already. The over for that fight is ?450, which I have in several parlays.

 

[weepaul]

When this fight was in the works around 7 years ago, I would have been all over Roy but not now.

As Roy has gotten older, he spends too much time on the ropes. I actually think Tito punches harder than the bigger Glen Johnson.

I would not be surprised to see Roy outclass Tito but I would also not be surprised if Tito won by brutal KO.

Tito is hard to discourage and will come at Roy all night.
It only takes one shot to have Roy on queer street these days.

His last couple of fights have been against guys who don't punch hard and now he might have a small sense of security.

I look at the third Tarver fight and I think Tarver was complete shit that night, yet he almost had Roy out with one punch.

If Tito hurts him, he will finish him.

 

[weepaul]

I made a thread about this after the lines were released.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=309426

My thoughts are still the same, the best bet here is the over 10.5, 5d has over 11.5 at +165 or so.

I think Jones is motivated for a Calzaghe or Hop match and will fight hard, but he?s what 39 now? Training camps will be key in this fight, moreso than usual. If we see any reports we should post them here.

I saw the Hanshaw fight, it was closer than the cards, Hanshaw was just too light-fisted to take advantage of him on the ropes. Jones will be severely drained at 170, and probably spend time on the ropes.

I took Tito at +370 and over 10.5 at +130,I also put Jones as the kicker in several parlays. If you found Jones at ?340, you can probably find a scalp for Tito at +360 if it?s worth it to you.

The easiest money ive seen lately is Malignaggi at ?400. When it opened I couldn?t afford to have money tied up, the line has bloated, some have it at ?800 already. The over for that fight is ?450, which I have in several parlays.

I wish I had found Malignaggi at -400. I put a shit load of cash on him at -700 and I still think it's a gift from God.

 

[Romi]

When this fight was in the works around 7 years ago, I would have been all over Roy but not now.

As Roy has gotten older, he spends too much time on the ropes. I actually think Tito punches harder than the bigger Glen Johnson.

I would not be surprised to see Roy outclass Tito but I would also not be surprised if Tito won by brutal KO.

Tito is hard to discourage and will come at Roy all night.
It only takes one shot to have Roy on queer street these days.

His last couple of fights have been against guys who don't punch hard and now he might have a small sense of security.

I look at the third Tarver fight and I think Tarver was complete shit that night, yet he almost had Roy out with one punch.

If Tito hurts him, he will finish him.

I do have a little concern about RJ getting caught. The other concern is RJ just being too gun shy. He did have more in the tank in his last 2 over the previous 3. I'll be a little nervous til he gets some rds in and gets into cruise mode. Tito needs to get set to get his punches off and I still believe RJ has enough to keep him off balance w/his movement and speed and hurt him w/his shots. Perhaps I shoul not have said Easy money but I do think RJ still wins this.

 

[Zerwas]

RJ is easy to hurt nowadays and he's definetely gunshy.
Tito is going up in weight and not as skilled as RJJ.
I'm contemplating a little bet on Tito.

 

[Zerwas]

I loaded up on the over for Malignaggi.

At -400 there is certainly value in Malignaggi, but I dont know, maybe Malignaggi is a little overrated in this fight, Ndou was pretty much shot and he's quite a heavy favorite at -800....

 

[gardenweasel]

tito`s wolfsbane is boxers.......and thats what roy is....or was....

they`re both pretty much shot...but roy`s naturally much bigger...and quicker..

i didn`t see roy/hanshaw...and i actually gave hanshaw a shot in that fight,just based on his age and work rate...i guess roy had enough to get it done...

tito`s basically immobile...if you`re able to move at all,or just be relatively quick handed and decent defensively,tito`s in a world of hurt....

roy`s been more active...

imo,tito has one shot...and that`s to stop rjj....like i said,i didn`t see him vs hanshaw,so,the rope thing makes a k.o. possible...particularly after seeing roy starched by relatively crude glen johnson....

i can`t see ngoudjo stopping malignaggi ...and i doubt he can outpoint him...ngoudjo`s in there for a reason...to be beaten by malignaggi.....neither guy can punch....

if theres a malignaggi by decision prop,i`d guess that`s the way to go...if it`s reasonable...

btw...you guys feel comfy laying -800`s?.....i never do it...scares me to death...matter of fact,anything over roughly -300 has me searching for other parlay material....

hate battling back from a big loser..but,that`s me....:shrug:

waiting to see the allan green/rubin williams line...

g.l.

 

[tonymontana]

tito`s wolfsbane is boxers.......and thats what roy is....or was....

they`re both pretty much shot...but roy`s naturally much bigger...and quicker..

i didn`t see roy/hanshaw...and i actually gave hanshaw a shot in that fight,just based on his age and work rate...i guess roy had enough to get it done...

tito`s basically immobile...if you`re able to move at all,or just be relatively quick handed and decent defensively,tito`s in a world of hurt....

roy`s been more active...

imo,tito has one shot...and that`s to stop rjj....like i said,i didn`t see him vs hanshaw,so,the rope thing makes a k.o. possible...particularly after seeing roy starched by relatively crude glen johnson....

i can`t see ngoudjo stopping malignaggi ...and i doubt he can outpoint him...ngoudjo`s in there for a reason...to be beaten by malignaggi.....neither guy can punch....

if theres a malignaggi by decision prop,i`d guess that`s the way to go...if it`s reasonable...

btw...you guys feel comfy laying -800`s?.....i never do it...scares me to death...matter of fact,anything over roughly -300 has me searching for other parlay material....

hate battling back from a big loser..but,that`s me....:shrug:

waiting to see the allan green/rubin williams line...

g.l.

Gardenweasel we are on the same page here.

I dont want to play cassandra all the time but betting -800 looks tempting but is imo a dangerous strategy.
I am waiting on props for the fights mentioned if my man says Ngoudjo has a shot watch out. I let you know when he gives his opinion.
Roy Jones is my last really big stupid betting lose against Tarver. Since then i stay away from anything over -300 and even -200 doesnt look to good to my eyes nowadays.
Casamayor was a really horrible bet where Santa Cruz got played big time.
In person i like cats but bettingwise i love dogs big time.

 

[The Sponge]

..ngoudjo`s in there for a reason...to be beaten by malignaggi.....neither guy can punch....

malignaggi is another guy who to me is all hype. this must be another stiff he is fighting. He is okay but i can't stand watching him. He couldn't crack an egg with a hammer.

 

[nj]

malignaggi is another guy who to me is all hype. this must be another stiff he is fighting. He is okay but i can't stand watching him. He couldn't crack an egg with a hammer.

i think that's a bit harsh. malig's boxing skills are impeccable, if unexciting. when i boxed i was a skinny, weak 140lber, with similar attributes to him.
i couldn't crack an egg with a hammer either.

malig crafted a style that suits his natural abilities, and he's now among the best in the world at what he does. i hate his pouty lips and dyed guido hairstyle as much as everybody else, but to say he's all hype is a stretch.


anyway, ngoudjo isn't a stiff, but he's too crude and slow to win this fight. his sloppy pressure style worked on a shot and surprised castillo, but a guy with the movement and speed of malig should have no trouble pot-shotting him. the key here is foot speed and lateral/backward movement, which castillo didn't have at that point.

id be surprised if herman wins more than 2 rounds.

im going to look more into ngoudjo's camp and past to see if his corner would consider throwing in the towel once it becomes apparent he's going to lose.
if they wouldn't, loading up on Malig decision or over would be the bet.

 

[gardenweasel]

i think that's a bit harsh. malig's boxing skills are impeccable, if unexciting. when i boxed i was a skinny, weak 140lber, with similar attributes to him.
i couldn't crack an egg with a hammer either.

malig crafted a style that suits his natural abilities, and he's now among the best in the world at what he does. i hate his pouty lips and dyed guido hairstyle as much as everybody else, but to say he's all hype is a stretch.


anyway, ngoudjo isn't a stiff, but he's too crude and slow to win this fight. his sloppy pressure style worked on a shot and surprised castillo, but a guy with the movement and speed of malig should have no trouble pot-shotting him. the key here is foot speed and lateral/backward movement, which castillo didn't have at that point.

i`d be surprised if herman wins more than 2 rounds.

im going to look more into ngoudjo's camp and past to see if his corner would consider throwing in the towel once it becomes apparent he's going to lose.
if they wouldn't, loading up on Malig decision or over would be the bet.

n.j......excellent post....this site seems to have accrued some serious boxing afficionados in the last year or so....by reading the posts it`s obvious that these guys aren`t just "me" guys trying to build a rep,but,guys that really enjoy discussing fighters and the game...everybody willingly cops to a loss...no out of control egos...

getting tony montana over here was beautiful,and then we got romi/punchmaster and several others...zerwas followed...now night janitor....

the picks are great..but the discission and hearing rationale from knowledgable guys is the icing on the cake...an international crew...

sorry to see conan take a powder..hopefully he`s just catching his breath after the holidays....


ditto that with mma...with weepaul and muhr becoming regulars...bucsnotyucks and andrey.....

i` m not just kissing ass...i don`t know about the rest,but in the circles i travel in as an adult,not that many are into boxing/mma etc except for the really big events..... and it`s great to have a forum where you can come and discuss a passion that isn`t shared by all that many....

me,franks and tonymontana used to be at another site...i remember when it was box and i and one other guy here.......and box was "wet behind the ears" when we met.....lol ...now he`s the linch-pin...

well,that`s my new years diatribe.......hopefully everyone will hang throughout the year and continue to contribute...

i think most had real nice years gambling-wise....thanks to all the opinions,which were pretty solid... ..i think we got the books "skeered" and lets "keep the skeer on 'em"........ :thumb:

 

[The Sponge]

i think that's a bit harsh. malig's boxing skills are impeccable, if unexciting. when i boxed i was a skinny, weak 140lber, with similar attributes to him.
i couldn't crack an egg with a hammer either.

malig crafted a style that suits his natural abilities, and he's now among the best in the world at what he does. i hate his pouty lips and dyed guido hairstyle as much as everybody else, but to say he's all hype is a stretch.


anyway, ngoudjo isn't a stiff, but he's too crude and slow to win this fight. his sloppy pressure style worked on a shot and surprised castillo, but a guy with the movement and speed of malig should have no trouble pot-shotting him. the key here is foot speed and lateral/backward movement, which castillo didn't have at that point.

id be surprised if herman wins more than 2 rounds.

im going to look more into ngoudjo's camp and past to see if his corner would consider throwing in the towel once it becomes apparent he's going to lose.
if they wouldn't, loading up on Malig decision or over would be the bet.

Maybe saying "i think they try to hype this kid to much" would have been a better statement. Not all hype like i originally said. I just don't enjoy watching him. Is he a good fighter Sure but to me he is a tad overrated for my liking. These pitty patters make for boring fights. Just my opinion.

 

[weepaul]

n.j......excellent post....this site seems to have accrued some serious boxing afficionados in the last year or so....by reading the posts it`s obvious that these guys aren`t just "me" guys trying to build a rep,but,guys that really enjoy discussing fighters and the game...everybody willingly cops to a loss...no out of control egos...

getting tony montana over here was beautiful,and then we got romi/punchmaster and several others...zerwas followed...now night janitor....

the picks are great..but the discission and hearing rationale from knowledgable guys is the icing on the cake...an international crew...

sorry to see conan take a powder..hopefully he`s just catching his breath after the holidays....


ditto that with mma...with weepaul and muhr becoming regulars...bucsnotyucks and andrey.....

i` m not just kissing ass...i don`t know about the rest,but in the circles i travel in as an adult,not that many are into boxing/mma etc except for the really big events..... and it`s great to have a forum where you can come and discuss a passion that isn`t shared by all that many....

me,franks and tonymontana used to be at another site...i remember when it was box and i and one other guy here.......and box was "wet behind the ears" when we met.....lol ...now he`s the linch-pin...

well,that`s my new years diatribe.......hopefully everyone will hang throughout the year and continue to contribute...

i think most had real nice years gambling-wise....thanks to all the opinions,which were pretty solid... ..i think we got the books "skeered" and lets "keep the skeer on 'em"........ :thumb:

Thanks for the props Gardenweasel.
I commented on another boxing forum that I almost never post on forums due to no-nothing arsewipes sinking me to their level of abuse. I told them that there is one forum that I love due to intelligent, practical, boxing discussions with people who love the sport as much as me. Nobody berates the fighters or fellow forum members. If there is a difference of opinion it is talked about logically without the usual need for name calling.

I would never tell these halfwits the name of this place as I find it's a fight lovers sanctuary.
IF half these guys on the other forums had a braincell, it would die of loneliness and I would not want them polluting this place with their poison.

Now that I have had my rant, back to boxing.

I don't normally think betting -800 is a good idea but in a couple of cases, when I think that a fighter should be -3000, I am more than willing to bet $4,000 to win $500.
The Paulie fight is just such a case. Unless he gets cut by a fluke, he is winning this fight easy.
Ngoudjo was very lucky to get the decision against Bailey. If the fight had not been in Canada, I think he would have lost.
Paulie can't break an egg but he will hit Ngoudjo
with 5 punches to every one Ngoudjo throws harmlessly over his head.

In regards to RJJ, I also notice that his face starts to swell easily in recent fights.
Don't be surprised if this becomes a factor on fight night.

 

[The Sponge]

Just looking at the record of the guy fighting Mag could there ever be a fight that should go the distance? then i run over and see its almost 5 to 1 odds after 11.5 rounds:scared

As for the JOnes fight its 6 years to late. Last time i saw Felix he looked like he was 50 pounds over weight. Just can't get up for this one. Tito will be the only one in this fight who will try to make it a fight. If not it looks like they are just trying to get a nice payday. I'll let weasel buy this one and ill wait for the results. Jones by a decision.

 

[nj]

Maybe saying "i think they try to hype this kid to much" would have been a better statement. Not all hype like i originally said. I just don't enjoy watching him. Is he a good fighter Sure but to me he is a tad overrated for my liking. These pitty patters make for boring fights. Just my opinion.

I agree he?s not very entertaining. I personally enjoy guys like him and Spinks only because I fought similarly and at the same weight, though with much poorer results! lol. I actually think he's a bit underrated because of his technical style, while guys like Hatton are overbet. I hope Hatton and Malig fight, I'll gladly take Malig at a nice dog line.

I didn't mean to be argumentative, I can see where you're coming from. He may be over-hyped by some East Coast guys - Paulie himself is humble about his peers especially Mayweather and Witter - but he should be so good in this fight that it won't matter.




gardenweasel, thank you for the kind words, though I wouldn?t put myself on the list with you guys yet, I'm still new to this and haven't proven myself. This forum has helped me a lot.

Ive been hesitant to post picks since im still new, but ive noticed many opening lines that are off lately. Pacquaio, Wand Silva, Malig, and Antillon all opened too low, and created an awesome scalp. The Lopez/Matsuda line swung completely. Early Tito backers have been rewarded, I think Jones will drop even more. I caught a few of those but didn't want anyone following me in case I was wrong.

I thought the Spinks/Phillips over opened too low at -300, its only risen about 50 cents so maybe Im wrong. Still, Phillips has only lost once by KO - and that was 20 years ago! - and the last time I saw him he ate Quartey's shots all night with no problem. Spinks hasn't KOed anyone in 7 years. The sportsbook I use wrote 'Vernon' instead of Verno Phillips lol, boxing seems to be a low priority for them. I also have several parlays with Spinks straight at -500.

Anyway thanks again for the encouragement, I'll post my observations more often.

By the way Romi, sorry for derailing this thread so much! Spinks fights on the Jones-Tito undercard, and Paulie is two days away, so they're worth bringing up.

 

[The Sponge]

I didn't mean to be argumentative, I can see where you're coming from. He may be over-hyped by some East Coast guys - Paulie himself is humble about his peers especially Mayweather and Witter - but he should be so good in this fight that it won't matter.

Alls good. I like reading your stuff. I worded it a little over the top.

 

[The Sponge]

I agree he?s not very entertaining. I personally enjoy guys like him and Spinks only because I fought similarly and at the same weight, though with much poorer results! lol. I actually think he's a bit underrated because of his technical style, while guys like Hatton are overbet. I hope Hatton and Malig fight, I'll gladly take Malig at a nice dog line.




.

Night im not a big Hatton fan and said i would never watch another one of his fights again (before the Mayweather fight) but i think i would like to see the two of these guys go at it. Although i didn't see Hatton land a punch against Mayweather i think this fight would be a lot more closer. even thou i think Mayweather ran right over Hatton i appreciated his effort this time and liked the way he was cutting off some of the angles of Mayweather. i think it would be a good fight.

 

[conanthecribber]

Hi,

back from the Xmas break. I was also pissed that my last 5 or 6 picks in December all lost and 2007 went from being a bumper year to "right back where I started year".

I hate the English cricketers more than ever.

Anyhow, looking ahead.....

Absolutely no value on Paulie vs N'Dou. So I aint betting it.

I also dont like the Jones vs Trinidad fight. It's a bit like betting on "which rusty pick up truck over there will lose its bumper bar first?". Tito's wolfbane may have been movers, but Roy aint moving anywhere at 170. He's on the rope countering. Mind you, at 170, Tito is not going to be throwing all night either. I will probably bet the "over 9 rounds", medium bet. I see a lazy snoozer.

Regarding odds, I'll bet anything if I think it is good value. I back Australia to beat India at 1.1 (-1000) the other day, because they set India a total of 499 runs to get in the 4th innings. No team has got that many runs in 130 years of cricket, and it was on a big ground and Australia is the best team in the world. So it seemed pretty safe. I also bet Germany beating San Marino at soccer 1.01 (-10000 yes ten thousand). Both bets I collected.

That said. Seven months lay off for Maigniggi, An absolute beating from Cotto and a career best win over "never was" N'Dou, and being feather fisted, doesn't sound like -800 material to me. But hey, I've been wrong many times before.....

cheers

conan

 

[Zerwas]

Good article on fightwriter on the Malignaggi bout.

I totally agree!

Ngoudjou on points opened at +1200 at bwin and I think there is some value.

Frankly I dont see why you would bet on Malignaggi at -800 and not on the over at -400.