rookie soccer question

bosco

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Jan 21, 2001
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I'm just beginning to enjoy Soccer. I've noticed that on many games, both money lines are greater than +100. For example, Team A will be +135 and Team B will be +170. The first time I saw this, I thought there must be a line error. However, after a little digging, it looks like in this scenario- a draw must also be a very real possibility. Is this correct?

Thanks & GL
 

Anders

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Bosco - yep, that's why; 3 options; W, L or D...

It's why u will often see some bettors hedge a decent-sized underdog with both win and draw wagers as u could still make easily over a unit's profit.... if they win or draw :D
 

Nick Douglas

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Oct 31, 2000
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Anders has certainly probably had more success and experience than I betting soccer, but personally I have found that just betting one bet per game is the better way to do. When you bet a side and the draw it just reduces your odds to too large a degree because you are risking twice the amount and all it takes is a loss to beat you.

Let me take today's CL game as an example. I believe odds at one book I saw were Man U +140, Draw +200 and Lever +160.

If you are a Man U backer it looks good to play Draw 1 unit and Man U 1 unit because either result gives you a profit. Let's look at this closely, though.

Man U: 2 units wagered to win 0.4 units

Draw: 2 units wagered to win 1.0 units

Lever: 2 units wagered and 2 units lost

Over the long term, it seems that overcoming the 2 unit losses, when they come, is extremely difficult. This is because you are basically giving away one unit every game. If you win you still lose one unit on the other wager and if you lose you are losing two units instead of one.

My record isn't exactly stellar on my free picks page (3-6 for a profit under $200) but if I hadn't made the mistake of adding the Pathinaikos side to a Draw bet made when they faced FC Porto last year to ensure a small profit, I would actually have a pretty good record.

My advice is to track your own plays or play them for relatively insignificant amounts before making standard sized wagers. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.
 

nostromo

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Jan 10, 2002
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I wanted to adress the question about hedging earlier in the world cup thread after Anders brought it up, but I'll use Nick's example as a cue.

If you split the 2 units between ManU and the draw to win the same amount on both outcomes, you have

1,11 units on ManU +140
0,89 units on draw +200

you win around 0,66 units for 2 units wagered if things go your way. That means you have a -300 bet on ManU/draw.
Obviously this is not a very good bet, the book is getting +300 for Leverkusen in this case and I'd take that anytime.
 

Anders

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Just to clarify...

It's not something I do often....just pointed it out to help bosco work out why the odds seemed so high on the winners...

My real preference for soccer is, as it is for a lot of sports, totals and home dogs... :cool:
 
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