I had:
Vancouver +1000 L 1
Carolina +650 L 1
Los Angeles +550 W 5.5
Los Angeles +1000 (after game 1) (?X) W 5
Detroit +110 (after game 5) (2X) L 2
Toronto +160 (after game 1) W 1.6
Edmonton +340 L 1
San Jose +240 L 1
Series lines record: 3-5 +6.1 units
I'll start to comment on that Kings series, since it just ended, and it's THE reason why I'm showing profit:
LA Kings +550 / LA Kings +1000 (after game 1) W
All I can say is a big "thanks" to Adam Deadmarsh and the Kings who made me look good here. I've been yelling about the Kings and Deadmarsh all series long, I guess I just wanted to provoke some people here, to wake you up. Deadmarsh had the winning goals in game 5 and 6, and the tying one in game 6. I hope you believe now when I say that you WANT this guy in your team in the playoffs. This team is way underrated, and I don't know how long it will last, but if I can still bet on the Kings +550 to win over Colorado, I'll do it. As a matter of fact, you can see once again that when a team is "hot", it's "hot". The Kings were on a hot streak before the beginning of the playoffs, and congrats to all of you who dared to take advantage of this factor. Detroit -700 was a complete mistake - "easy to say now" you'll say, but I said it right at the beginning.
Detroit +110 (after game 5) L
As I allready said, this was just a "safety bet", nothing else.
Vancouver +1000 L
After seeing Colorado winning in 4 games, it might be tempting to say that this one was a "sucker". I still don't think it was. vancouver lost 3 of their 4 games by the margin of 1 goal, and the Avs didn't play the way they're able to. That was to be expected, as the Avs ended their regular schedule with a 3-3-1 record in their last 7, including a lost in Calgary and a tie against Anaheim. Marc Crawford was also an interesting factor here, facing his former team. I don't regret this bet at all. A lot of luck implicated in these kinds of bets, and I knew it.
Carolina +650 L
I was originally supposed to make this bet a "safety bet" (again), as I have a huge amount of money (well for me) on New Jersey to win the cup. But on second thought, I figured out that this bet really was a "valuable" one. I think I were wrong. I underestimated my own team (yeah.. for those who don't know, I'm a Devils fan). Even if the Canes won 2 straight games at the end before losing 5-1 in game 6, it's quite clear that this team was no match for the Devils, who outscored Carolina 20 to 8 during the series. Wrong move. Plain simple.
Toronto +160 (after game 1) W
Well I've heard it many times lately, the Leafs built a team for the playoffs, not for the regular season. The complete opposite applies for Ottawa. I'm certainly not gonna tell you that I'm not surprised at all to see Toronto winning this series here, and most importantly, in 4 games, but I won't tell you that I fell off my chair. Jacques Martin is a good coach for the regular seaon, but not for the playoffs. He just doesn't have any emotion to transmit to his players. +160 when the Leafs were leading the series 1-0 really sounded like a huge mistake to me, and now that they swept, well.. no comment.
Edmonton +340 L
Probably my best bet after LA. Whoever watched this series can admit that +340 was the heck of a value here for Edmonton. Well it lost, but the point is: it WAS a great value. And a great series too, that's for sure. The lack of playoffs experience probably cost Edmonton the win here. They've been playing just as good as the Stars all series long, who outscored them 16-13 during the series. Lady luck wasn't on the right side here. Dallas sure was the favorite team to win, but I still deeply think that the odds were wrong. One player that comes in my mind when I think about this series: Ryan Smyth. Now talk about a guy who has the "will to win". Oh.. and also "hat" to an old one, who doesn't seem ready to retire too soon: Kirk Muller.
San Jose +240 L
This one was a sucker. My estimated line here was St-Louis -160... should have been around -250 .. -300. With Pronger and MacInnis back in the lineup, there was no reason to think that the Sharks were able to beat this team again. Oh sure, I almost got lucky.. that OT loss in game 5 sure hurt. But really, the better team won here. And a side note: Teemu Selanne is not the kind of player I'd like to have in my team in the playoffs. He just don't even seem to understand the difference between a playoff game and an exhibition game. It's been like that since his rookie year in Winnipeg.
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***ROUND 2 ESTIMATED LINES***
I won't comment much here; there's so much things to say that I don't know where to start, and I'm a little bit short on time.. 4:15am allready.. It's more about stats and probabilities anyways - no "inside information"
Colorado -320 over LA (MPO: Colorado in 5)
I'm all over the Kings here if the lines are similar to what it was against Detroit. LA has the team to win this series at least 1 time out of 5... in my opinion of course. It will be very interesting to see the public's reaction when Rob Blake will step on the STAPLES ice. Also, Deadmarsh and Miller sure will be able to give a trick or two to their teammates on "how to beat the Avs" - but it's also true on the other side, allthough Felix Potvin wasn't in LA yet when blake left for Denver.
New Jersey -295 over Toronto (MPO: New Jersey in 5)
Am I underestimating "my" team again? Well I allready have a bet on Toronto +450 anyway.. yeah yeah.. I said that I wouldn't do that.. but +450 is too tempting to pass. Besides it's a "saftey bet" at the same time. After sitting and watching other series on tv for almost a week now, I have the feling that the Leafs will jump on the ice in a fury on Thursday night in Meadowlands.
Buffalo -115 over Pittsburgh (MPO: Buffalo in 7)
Short on time. No comment for now.
Dallas -105 over St-Louis (MPO: St-louis in 6)
Same.
Good luck in the 2nd round
[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-24-2001).]
Vancouver +1000 L 1
Carolina +650 L 1
Los Angeles +550 W 5.5
Los Angeles +1000 (after game 1) (?X) W 5
Detroit +110 (after game 5) (2X) L 2
Toronto +160 (after game 1) W 1.6
Edmonton +340 L 1
San Jose +240 L 1
Series lines record: 3-5 +6.1 units
I'll start to comment on that Kings series, since it just ended, and it's THE reason why I'm showing profit:
LA Kings +550 / LA Kings +1000 (after game 1) W
All I can say is a big "thanks" to Adam Deadmarsh and the Kings who made me look good here. I've been yelling about the Kings and Deadmarsh all series long, I guess I just wanted to provoke some people here, to wake you up. Deadmarsh had the winning goals in game 5 and 6, and the tying one in game 6. I hope you believe now when I say that you WANT this guy in your team in the playoffs. This team is way underrated, and I don't know how long it will last, but if I can still bet on the Kings +550 to win over Colorado, I'll do it. As a matter of fact, you can see once again that when a team is "hot", it's "hot". The Kings were on a hot streak before the beginning of the playoffs, and congrats to all of you who dared to take advantage of this factor. Detroit -700 was a complete mistake - "easy to say now" you'll say, but I said it right at the beginning.
Detroit +110 (after game 5) L
As I allready said, this was just a "safety bet", nothing else.
Vancouver +1000 L
After seeing Colorado winning in 4 games, it might be tempting to say that this one was a "sucker". I still don't think it was. vancouver lost 3 of their 4 games by the margin of 1 goal, and the Avs didn't play the way they're able to. That was to be expected, as the Avs ended their regular schedule with a 3-3-1 record in their last 7, including a lost in Calgary and a tie against Anaheim. Marc Crawford was also an interesting factor here, facing his former team. I don't regret this bet at all. A lot of luck implicated in these kinds of bets, and I knew it.
Carolina +650 L
I was originally supposed to make this bet a "safety bet" (again), as I have a huge amount of money (well for me) on New Jersey to win the cup. But on second thought, I figured out that this bet really was a "valuable" one. I think I were wrong. I underestimated my own team (yeah.. for those who don't know, I'm a Devils fan). Even if the Canes won 2 straight games at the end before losing 5-1 in game 6, it's quite clear that this team was no match for the Devils, who outscored Carolina 20 to 8 during the series. Wrong move. Plain simple.
Toronto +160 (after game 1) W
Well I've heard it many times lately, the Leafs built a team for the playoffs, not for the regular season. The complete opposite applies for Ottawa. I'm certainly not gonna tell you that I'm not surprised at all to see Toronto winning this series here, and most importantly, in 4 games, but I won't tell you that I fell off my chair. Jacques Martin is a good coach for the regular seaon, but not for the playoffs. He just doesn't have any emotion to transmit to his players. +160 when the Leafs were leading the series 1-0 really sounded like a huge mistake to me, and now that they swept, well.. no comment.
Edmonton +340 L
Probably my best bet after LA. Whoever watched this series can admit that +340 was the heck of a value here for Edmonton. Well it lost, but the point is: it WAS a great value. And a great series too, that's for sure. The lack of playoffs experience probably cost Edmonton the win here. They've been playing just as good as the Stars all series long, who outscored them 16-13 during the series. Lady luck wasn't on the right side here. Dallas sure was the favorite team to win, but I still deeply think that the odds were wrong. One player that comes in my mind when I think about this series: Ryan Smyth. Now talk about a guy who has the "will to win". Oh.. and also "hat" to an old one, who doesn't seem ready to retire too soon: Kirk Muller.
San Jose +240 L
This one was a sucker. My estimated line here was St-Louis -160... should have been around -250 .. -300. With Pronger and MacInnis back in the lineup, there was no reason to think that the Sharks were able to beat this team again. Oh sure, I almost got lucky.. that OT loss in game 5 sure hurt. But really, the better team won here. And a side note: Teemu Selanne is not the kind of player I'd like to have in my team in the playoffs. He just don't even seem to understand the difference between a playoff game and an exhibition game. It's been like that since his rookie year in Winnipeg.
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***ROUND 2 ESTIMATED LINES***
I won't comment much here; there's so much things to say that I don't know where to start, and I'm a little bit short on time.. 4:15am allready.. It's more about stats and probabilities anyways - no "inside information"
Colorado -320 over LA (MPO: Colorado in 5)
I'm all over the Kings here if the lines are similar to what it was against Detroit. LA has the team to win this series at least 1 time out of 5... in my opinion of course. It will be very interesting to see the public's reaction when Rob Blake will step on the STAPLES ice. Also, Deadmarsh and Miller sure will be able to give a trick or two to their teammates on "how to beat the Avs" - but it's also true on the other side, allthough Felix Potvin wasn't in LA yet when blake left for Denver.
New Jersey -295 over Toronto (MPO: New Jersey in 5)
Am I underestimating "my" team again? Well I allready have a bet on Toronto +450 anyway.. yeah yeah.. I said that I wouldn't do that.. but +450 is too tempting to pass. Besides it's a "saftey bet" at the same time. After sitting and watching other series on tv for almost a week now, I have the feling that the Leafs will jump on the ice in a fury on Thursday night in Meadowlands.
Buffalo -115 over Pittsburgh (MPO: Buffalo in 7)
Short on time. No comment for now.
Dallas -105 over St-Louis (MPO: St-louis in 6)
Same.
Good luck in the 2nd round
[This message has been edited by katts (edited 04-24-2001).]
