Round 1 play (4pts):
Zach Johnson to beat Ernie Els +110 @ Stan James [available generally]
History suggests that Johnson will not win this week as well as last week, but I do expect him to make the cut and have a decent showing around Royal Lytham. He has made the cut in the last five Open Championships, including two top-20 finishes, but the penal conditions this week are more in his favour than the typically hard and fast links courses that are the norm in this event. He ranks 19th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, which is important because of the very thick rough, ranks 8th in scrambling and is 1st or 2nd in the three main putting stats categories, so with the short game important on this course, he has the perfect game for it, unlike Els who ranks 128th in driving accuracy, for example. Of course, the Big Easy has a great record in this event, but he has missed the cut in each of the last two years and he is not the player that he was. He is also, in his own words, 'rusty' after taking a mid-season break - he is in a spell of golf in which he plays eight of nine weeks - and that affected his performance last week in the Scottish Open - he finished 52nd and was suitably embarrassed after taking four shots to get out of a bunker and being the subject of 'trial by television' over the same incident. This is a price based on the former Els; the current Els cannot match Johnson for form or ability to control the ball and navigate a way around a difficult golf course.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Daly tb Hoey +105; Woodland tb Pettersson +145; Wilson tb Grace +115; Campbell tb Hoey +100; Yang tb Jaidee +115; Senden tb Curtis +100; Mulroy tb Morrison +100; Cochran tb Slattery +100; Stanley tb Rock +100; Love tb Lawrie +110]