Rugby Internationals (11/13 (85%) YTD +8.04 Units)

[crookycymru]

Ireland (+10) vs Australia, Lansdowne Road, Dublin (14:30 GMT)

The Australians arrive for their tour of GB and Ireland, coming off a tough physical game against the Argies. They can expect more of the same here, as a ground packed full of 70,00 drunk-on-Guiness screaming Irishmen, is as volatile an atmosphere as it comes.
Ireland are now a very good international team, who struggle to take their good form to away venues. They had a creditable tour of New Zealand in the summer, and again the Irish provincial sides are playing well in Europe. The loss of Keith Wood for this game is a huge blow, as he is the best hooker in world rugby, but they have talent elsewhere, and the Aussies will need to be right on their game.
Australia's team is bursting with talent...however I still feel they are some way off reaching their peak under new coaching, and this could prove to be a tough few games for the Aussies over here.
The Irish struck the first blow with victory in racings Melbourne Cup last week, and the handicap of ten points should be too big a start. Dont be surprised however, if Ireland pinch this game on the ML

2 Points Win Ireland (+10) at 5/6 with Bet365

Scotland vs Romania (+42) Murrayfield, Edinburgh (16:30 GMT)

Not a classic compared to some of the games we have today. Scotland are a very tough team to beat at Murrayfield, but however are short of international class players.
Romania are at the bottom scale of the international rugby ladder, but put up a brave display in going down by nearly forty points to Wales, and the scoreboard did not reflect Romania's efforts. Thier fly half will have to find his kicking boots this time, as he cannot afford to miss the type of goals he missed in Wrexham.
A play here on Romania, mainly due to the fact that they have recent games under their belt, while Scotland have not played at international level for a while now.


1 Point Win Romania (+42) at 5/6 with Stan James

 

[crookycymru]

I am passing on the England-New Zealand game. Normally, I would jump at taking the All Blacks with an eight point start, but this is a bit of an unknown All Blacks side. They could either be superb, and defeat England, or their lack of international knowledge could tell, and England might win comfortably. There too many ifs and buts for me to have any opinion at all on the game.

Again, the compilers seem to have handicapped the Wales-Fiji game correctly. I was hoping for a bigger Fiji start, so twenty points is not enough for me. If Wales under perform as they did against Romania, then those twenty points will be far too much. However, with the whole of the Welsh public against their backs, there is a chance the Welsh can rise their game and take the Fijians on in the forwards, and cover the handicap.

I will definitely post back with a play on tonights France-South Africa game.

Good Luck Today!!

 

[crookycymru]

Results :

Ireland 18-9 Australia
Scotland 37-10 Romania
England 31-28 New Zealand
Wales 58-14 Fiji

Another great day!! Perhaps a little regret that I did not take Ireland as an additional play on the ML at a massive 11/4, but we cannot grumble.

Performance of the day without doubt must go Ireland in defeating the World Champions. Any victory over the All Blacks is impressive, no matter what team they have out, so credit must also reluctantly go to England. However, as a Welshman, I am delighted with the margin of Wales victory over what was a potentially dangerous Fijian side. A good day to be British!!
:thefinger

YTD will be updated after my final play of the day.

France vs South Africa (+3) Marseilles, France (19:45 GMT)

Another thriller in store tonight in what has been a terrific day of international rugby. The Springboks travel to Marseilles to take on a French side brimming with confidence.
On a domestic level, Frances club sides are winning everywhere in Europe. Their team has class throughout, and they make a bold, exciting move in restoring the mercurial Thomas Castaignede to their back line after a lengthy time out through injury.
The Springboks are another side in world rugby who have had to start with new players under a new coach. They are improving fast, and again posess world class players throughout the dressing room.
I have stated before that France at this stage, are in my opinion the best team in the world. Every thing is going right for them, and I feel they are starting to peak right before next years World Cup. Where as other teams will hit their best some time next year, France are capable of beating anybody in their home country, and this should be the case again tonight.

1 Point France (-3) vs South Africa at 5/6 with Ladbrokes ( be aware the same line is avilable with William Hill, Coral, Totalbet, Victor Chandler, and Stan James)

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

good info and greatly appreciated!

 

[crookycymru]

BTW for all you Canadian readers....Wales play Canada in Cardiff next week, so perhaps next Saturday will be a whole lot more exciting for you!!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Wales play Canada in Cardiff next week, so perhaps next Saturday will be a whole lot more exciting for you!!

:lol: :lol:

a whole lot more exciting...?

you don't know how much FUN we have over here...!!!


good luck in your plays...!!

 

[crookycymru]

France 30-10 South Africa

Another easy winner to end a very profitable day. France confirmed my belief that they are the best side in the world at the moment, blowing away the Boks by a record margin.



That is it for this week, however next Saturday is another day packed with International rugby action. Amongst the highlights are Australia travelling to London, and the game of the week being France-New Zealand, which could possibly be a curtain raiser for next years Rugby World Cup final.

If you havent done already, then open some accounts with the books here in Europe, as rugby is not very well represented on the USA books. However, will be interesting to see if they get involved next week with Canada playing. :shrug:

See you next week!!

YTD :

INTERNATIONAL RUGBY : 4/4 (100%) +4.16 Units
DOMESTIC RUGBY : 10/12 (83%) +7.2 Units

OVERALL YTD : 14/16 (88%) +11.36 Units (+?1136/$1806 calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Very well called Crooky :clap:

 

[british bulldog]

Great tipping with analysis crooky.

I cant believe you called the Welsh on the handicap giving 20 points when only last week you said you used sporting odds. They quoted 16 points and at 10/11.
I did say their odds compiler was garbage.
I also feel you overrated Fiji. You must agree that Wales are at least on a par with Italy yet Italy beat Fiji recently 66-10. Furthermore, Fiji have only beaten very weak sides in Samoa and Tonga (twice).
This to me was the Rugby bet of the day, Wales only giving 16 points. As you know though, this betting is all about opinions.

Is this your usual percentage of winners to bets or are you more in the 60% range ? Very impressive results so far. Great work, the postings are informative.

E-mail me if you want. Address on home page of my community pages found in free tips.

 

[Anders]

BB - This is actually Gareth's barren spell ....LMFAO!! :Yep: :spotting:

Great work mate, much appreciated.

My take on the ABs v Eng - an excellent match to watch between 2 good sides, England's unity and experience a telling factor along with Wilkinson's class.
Mitchell probably won't be too upset knowing what he has at home, keeping the WC powder dry. Robinson, Williams, Devine and Lee all showed promise on debut, shame about Sumo Lowen's injury.
Was a little surprised Spencer got benched at the half, I thought he looked as sharp as he has all season. Front row struggled not surprisingly, Hore is the 4th choice hooler, McDonnell a fringe squad member and Meuuws is better in the open than at set pieces.
Really didn't think Lomu had it in him to bounce back - if u had seen him in the NPC u would have said his career was over. V pleasing.
Another Waikato man , Holah, was outstanding - for the ABs to have 2 world class no 7s (McCaw being rested) is great news.
Suprised how Eng still under-rate their backline a little - I thought the home team looked very good with ball in hand and quick movement of phases. Very solid forward pack as expected.
Will watch the rest of the tour with interest and can see a very tough side come WC next year along the lines of ...
Blair/McDonald, Howlett, Umaga, Mauger, Lomu, Spencer/Mehrtens, Kelleher, Robertson, Jack, Williams/Robinson, Somerville, Oliver, Meuuws. Reserves: McDonald/Blair/Cullen, Lowen, Spencer/Mehrtens, Devine/Lee, Randell, Holah, Maxwell, Feek, Willis.

 

[british bulldog]

Anders

Anders

Just a few brief throughts on the England and All Blacks game.

With just one year to go before the World Cup New Zealand find themselves in a very strong position. They came to the Northern Hemisphere with what was by all accounts a weakend team. With eight world class centres and other backs left behind in their native country, it all bows well for Kiwi rugby. At present only France would give them a real fright.

England as usual played to flat and lateral and the recycling of the ball was labourous. New Zealand run onto the ball from deep breaking the game line with reqularity.

Australia and South Africa are some way behind and at present and I would rate them both inferior to England. New Zealand won the recent Tri-Nation which supports that both Australia and South Africa have fallen off the pace and this will be further evident when both have completed their Northern Hemisphere tour.

 

[crookycymru]

Thanks for all the replies!!

BB, I was probably guilty of over estimating the Fijians this weekend. I went to see them play last Monday night, and there is no doubt they have quality players with a lot of pace. The team that lost to Italy was a shadow of the team that faced Wales saturday, but I was impressed in the manner Wales demolished Fiji. It was a tough spot for Wales.....they were lambasted by the Welsh press and public after their lacklustre victory over Romania, and everybody was expecting a slip up. Wales fielded a team without much experience at this level, but came through with flying colours. The performance prompted the Fijian coach, Mac MacCallion (himself a Kiwi), to suggest that the Welsh can even beat the All Blacks in Cardiff in a fortnight. Now I do think he is over reacting, but I feel a whole lot better about my national team now than I was this time last weekend.

I could not agree more about the comments about the All Blacks. They do have a huge strength in depth, that very few international sides are lucky enough to posess. However, write off the Aussies at your peril. They are playing well below themselves at the moment, but I fully expect them to reach their best ahead of next years World Cup. Will be interesting to see if there is an Aussie backlash next week at Twickers.

As for my percentage at the moment, I doubt that many handicappers stay at such a high percentage over a long period, so I am making no promises that I will be different come next year or whenever. A more realistic target is between 60-70%, but I will add that I like the lines that are coming out at the moment, and will continue to work hard to produce winners. Looking forward to the resumption of Heineken Cup in December. If you was looking to have a bet at this stage then I would suggest backing either Biarritz or Toulouse at good prices.

Rugby is certainly the one sport I can continue to show a profit in year after year. I do not confess to being able to handicap other sports to the same high standards, but I am a big believer, in not taking too much upon yourself and to stick to what you do best. I am always willing to take aboard the advice of others who handicap other sports equally as well, and believe I am in the right place to do this, as I visit this great site every day! :thefinger

 

[fletcher]

C not blowing your question off from the other day but have had a lot going on the last week tile in house and getting it painted and some few other things i will give you what i know ad think thur or fri on your fighter sorry it took so long but i will get back thur or fri. very sorry it took so long to respond but in no way was i blowing you off.

good luck

Eric

 

[TheItalianguy]

does anyone have any thoughts on the Italy-Argentina game on sat in rome? anyone think the Italians can pull it off outright? they need another quality win after Fiji and considering they play Australia next weekend.

Also I like this Kirwan guy, the new coach. He gave them a new spirit after everyone was discouraged after last year 6 nation

 

[crookycymru]

Fletcher,

No problem about the delay in replying. I understand you are a very busy guy. It was interesting what Gardenweasel had to say...I was just looking at what kind of reputation Calzaghe has out there.

ItalianGuy,

I do not hold too much hope for the Italy on Saturday. Argentina without many of their first team players trounced Italy A by over forty points yesterday. Having said that you have a top top man in John Kirwan, and it is interesting to see that Italy have two New Zealanders, a South African, and four Argentinians in their squad.:look:

We will wait for the lines, but full write ups late Friday night, early Saturday morning GMT!

Good Luck