Tri-Nations Rugby
Wallabies (Australia) v All Blacks (New Zeland)
Wallabies -4.5
The final match of the Tri-Nations series will see the winner take all the spoils - although a draw would be enough to see the All Blacks emerge with the silverware.
When these sides last met at Carisbrook last month, the visitors triumphed with a smart tactical approach as the All Blacks floundered their way through a winning opportunity. That brought about a number of significant changes for the encounter v the Springboks and with Chris Jack at lock, Byron Kelleher at halfback, Andrew Mehrtens at first-five and Leon MacDonald at fullback, the All Blacks were a vastly different - read: improved side.
Their much criticised forward pack muscled up to the highly physical South African eight and with his side on the front foot and speedy service from Kelleher, Mehrtens was able to dictate play with his boot and tactical nous. His interchange with MacDonald, with positional changes on attack and defence, was also crucial in the 26-15 victory.
They won't get it so easy against an astute, confident Wallaby side. The Australian back three of Matt Burke, Chris Latham and Joe Roff are all strong kickers and may try again to establish territorial dominance. With referee Tappe Henning likely to toot a merry tune on the whistle, the home team will aim to play the majority of the game in opposition territory.
Their other key weapon is openside flanker George Smith. The speedy No7 has the edge in the loose ball battle over opposite Taine Randell and with the attacking team/side in possession usually the team that gets penalised at the ruck/maul breakdown, his presence is vital to the Wallabies.
The last aspect in the Australians' favour is that the match is the last in captain John Eales' fabulous career, and it should be a spine-tingling affair in front of a patriotic home crowd of 91,000 - which should also host its fair share of Kiwis.
With so few tries in the series so far, the team getting points has initial appeal. So will they cover?
I believe there are a few reasons why they will. The All Black scrum may gain a small edge over the Wallaby front 3 - prop Carl Hoeft yesterday voiced such thoughts, which was nice to see some confidence and boldness back into the All Black approach.
Expect Jack and locking partner Norm Maxwell to challenge the Australian lineout ball a lot, while Kelleher's bustle should also put Wallaby lynchpin halfback George Gregan under more pressure than he's used to.
Mehrtens' return gives the visitors a sharper tactical appreciation and a better general play and goalkicking boot.
And if Jonah Lomu finally gets a reasonable amount of ball, Chris Latham may have wished Andrew Walker regained his place in the side.
The final reason is somewhat of an intangible. I still believe this year's version of the Wallabies has more weaknesses than other recent sides - their midfield pairing, a lack of speed from the No 8 and No6 and the front row. Yet they pipped the Lions in a series they should have lost, weren't impressive v the Boks in their last home encounter, and won in Carisbrook mostly thru All Black ineptitude.
When you consider the amount of close contests the Wallabies have won in recent years - World Cup semifinal; v ABs in Wellington last year, away to the Boks also in 2000 - it indicates two things. One - they are mentally very strong. Two - they used up more than a share of good fortune.
Tonight, the play is against them - at last.
PLAY ALL BLACKS +4.5 (2 units)
GLTA
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