Run Line vs. Money Line ? AL Vs NL

[jatski]

All comments welcoms baseball guys:

Here?s a little analysis of Run Line vs. Money Line. I certainly don?t advocate betting a majority of favorites, BUT when I do play a favorite, I want the best value possible.

If time permits, I?ll try to run the numbers for last year, month by month, re- how many one-run games happen each month. ??? Maybe more as the season progresses into the dog days.

Anyway, here?s what I have for April, broken down into National League Vs. American League. No question that one month?s worth of data, especially the first month of the season, doesn?t mean a lot. However, at least for the month of April, the Run Line to stay away from was National League Home Favorites. For the other three categories of favorites (NL Road Favorites, AL Road and Home Favorites) you get a little more value on the run line as opposed to the money line.

Here are the stats for April:

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Road Favorites W > 1 Run = 26
Road Favorites W by 1 Run = 6
Road Favorites L = 36

Home Favorites W > 1 Run = 46
Home Favorites W by 1 Run = 29
Home Favorites L = 61

ASSUME, (big assumption here) that:

Average Road Favorite was -130
Average Road favorite Run Line (-1?) was +115
Average Home Favorite was ?150
Average Home Favorite Run Line (-1?) was +140

Playing ALL Favorites (204 games):

ROAD Money Line Winners: 32 (+32 units)
Road Money Line Losers: 36 @ -130 (-46.8 units)
Net playing all NL Road Favorites on Money Line = -14.8 units

ROAD Run Line Winners: 26 X 115 (+29.9 units)
Road Run Line Losers: 42 (-42 units)
Net playing all NL Road Favorites on Run Line = -12.1 units

HOME Money Line Winners: 75 (+75 units)
Home Money Line Losers: 61 X ?150 (-91.5 units)
Net playing all NL Home Favorites on Money Line = -16.5 units

HOME Run Line Winners: 46 X 140 (+64.4 units)
Road Run Line Losers: 90 (-90 units)
Net playing all NL Home Favorites on Run Line = -25.6 units

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Road Favorites W > 1 Run = 34
Road Favorites W by 1 Run = 7
Road Favorites L = 33

Home Favorites W > 1 Run = 44
Home Favorites W by 1 Run = 18
Home Favorites L = 41

ASSUME, again, that:

Average Road Favorite was -130
Average Road favorite Run Line (-1?) was +115
Average Home Favorite was ?150
Average Home Favorite Run Line (-1?) was +140

Playing ALL Favorites (177 games):

ROAD Money Line Winners: 41 (+41 units)
Road Money Line Losers: 33 @ -130 (-42.9 units)
Net playing all AL Road Favorites on Money Line = -1.9 units

ROAD Run Line Winners: 34 X 115 (+39.1 units)
Road Run Line Losers: 40 (-40 units)
Net playing all AL Road Favorites on Run Line = -0.9 units

HOME Money Line Winners: 62 (+62 units)
Home Money Line Losers: 41 X ?150 (-61.5 units)
Net playing all AL Home Favorites on Money Line = +0.5 units

HOME Run Line Winners: 34 X 140 (+61.6 units)
Road Run Line Losers: 59 (-59 units)
Net playing all AL Home Favorites on Run Line = +2.6 units

Based on this meager analysis & pending enlightening comments from all interested, for the month of April, WHEN you were making a play on a favorite:

IF NL ROAD team or AL (either home or away), there would been more value in the Run Line as opposed to the Money Line. NL Home teams were better played on Money Line.

I?ll try to get numbers on one-run games today and post later ? hopefully month by month 2001 Vs. now.

Thanks to all those adding helpful comments.

jatski

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Really don't have any comments except Thanks for running all the numbers, it looks like a ton of work. It may seem narrowminded, but I don't think I will ever play the run line under the logic of "If the bookies selling, I ain't buying" logic.

Thanks for the work, though

 

[nighthorse]

With that logic, you couldn't "buy" anything because any action the bookie takes is what he's "selling". I understand what you meant, I just don't agree with it as an unbreakable rule.

Lots of people just won't take the runline, period. That's like losing a couple of bets on a particular team and saying "I'm not going to bet on them anymore"

There are times when there is value in the runline. If these numbers hold, there's more value there than I first thought.

 

[jatski]

I agree nighthorse.

I started this project because I was always afraid to play home teams on the Run Line, fearing that bottom of the ninth one run win. Then I started noticing how relatively few one run favorite winners there were in the AL. With +90 difference between a home team favorite on the run line and the money line, I thought it was worth a look. Hence the above.

Anxious for comments form others.

Thanks.

jatski

 

[TheShrimp]

Thanks for the informative post. I was interested in this topic myself, but really don't have the time to do this kind of analysis.

Like you said, it's scary betting the home team and giving the 1' because you're going to get burned by that 9th winning win from time to time, but the book gives you a lot more money for betting it than they do with the road fave, so it shouldn't scare you any more than giving the 1' on a road team.

Thanks.

TheShrimp

 

[THE HITMAN]

I cant add alot to these fine write ups except that when i do play the run lines, it is almost always AL & usually when the total is 10 or more, sometimes 9.5 with an exception. My thinking has just been the simple: I would rather spot the 1.5 on a projected total of 10 or 11 vs. one at 8 or 8.5. AL totals run 1/2 to a run higher per game on ave.............Same with football teasers. I dont play many of those, but when I do, it is always with a projected total of less than 40, preferably closer to 35. 6 over 36 at almost 17% is a better figure than 6 over 44 at 13.6%. THE HITMAN

 

[superbook]

From an article from thelogicalapproach published in 2000 which took the results from 20,000 games.

Percentage of games which produce
the following Result . . . . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES
----------------------------------- -------------- --------------
Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %

Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %

Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %

Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %


Note that we have split the losses into groups of exactly 1 run and more than 1 run. There really is no need for this distinction since a loss is a loss is a loss when it comes to playing the Favorite. Only the 1 Run win has significance. What we want to show is that although between 28% and 30% of all games are decided by 1 run, ONLY those in which the FAVORITE WINS BY 1 RUN have an impact of the result of betting the Run Line!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

This says Home Favs are 50% more likely to win by exactly one run than Road Favs.


FWIW I only play the Run Line on a big favorite when the Total is 10 or higher.

I think that the odds of the fav losing by one are much higher with a lower Total. For example with a game that goes under 7.5, there are four ways to lose by a run (1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3) vs twelve ways to win by more than one run (2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 5-2, 6-1). That means with a Total Under 7.5 that you'll lose 25% of the time on the RL when you would have won with the ML.

Also I think that big rivalries are more likely to be one run games.

- Jon

 

[Big_Mack]

I look for the run line in a heavy FAV with the ace vs. a 3rd, 4th or 5th starter on the other team..

Really it's a pick choose that happens only a few times a month with me..

Pedro last time out (15-3) he was a -325 FAV

I played the RL ... It was -1.5 runs @ -165...

That in my opinion is a great value b/c you almost know that he isn't going to give up many runs, so all the Bo Sox had to do was score basically 4 or 5 runs.. I know hind sight is 20/20 but I did play this game with the RL and ML.. I'm just giving a little example of "my" thinking on that day and why I played the RL..

I think the Schilling tonight is a good example of when to play the RL vs. the ML... The D-Backs score runs and he does well vs. Montreal.. I think I my play it now that I think about it.. G/L..

 

[jatski]

Thanks for the great responses guys.

Many thanks to Don Malcolm of Big Bad Baseball who E-Mailed my last years team by team stats of one-run games.

I'll be posting these later tonight in this thread.

jatski