NFL playoff pendulum swings back after three uncharacteristic years
Pat Kirwan of nfl.com wrote an interesting piece last week introducing the theory that the running game was no longer necessary to win playoff games. His theory, albeit contrarian, seemed to have merit in that over the past nine rounds of the playoffs, only 6 of 26 winning teams produced a 100-yard rusher!
Let that soak in for a minute. Over the past three years, only 22% of teams winning their playoff games had a 100-yard rusher! What happened to three yards and a cloud of dust?
Kirwan quoted three sources, and citing three key theories for this trend. One offensive coordinator was quoted as saying: ?Only the best quarterbacks are left when you get to the playoffs, and they have a better chance of beating you with their arms than by handing off.?
An NFL defensive coordinator suggested; ?we are so wired in to a team?s running game after 17 weeks that we are very well prepared to stop good backs?
A personnel man offered that "you get against a team like Indianapolis or Minnesota, and you can't score fast enough on the ground to stay with them."
I sat and discussed these games with noted handicapper Carlo Campenalla. We hashed through these three points and could only conclude that they were statistical anomalies.
?Trends are overrated in the NFL,? Campenalla said. Then we watched four, count them, four 100-yard rushers blow the theory to kingdom come. Here is basic overview of the conversation, point by point.
Haven?t we seen just the opposite the past few years? Brad Johnson? Trent Dilfer? Rich Gannon? All quarterbacks who coaches were not thrilled to see passing. Also, haven?t we seen an influx of increasingly mobile, athletic quarterbacks capable of tucking and running just as easily as passing? Donovan McNabb, Duante Culpepper, Steve McNair and now Michael Vick? Theory number bites the dust!
How wired into the Steelers running game were the Jets? Were they not expecting Jerome Bettis to pound the ball as he rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown? How about the Rams? Apparently not very well prepared to stop Michael Vick 8-119 rushing and Warrick Dunn 142 yards and two touchdowns! So much for theory number two!
You absolutely can score fast enough on the ground against Indianapolis or Minnesota if your combined defenses give up 17 points! Theory number three makes sense when convenient. Now what?
The conclusions to be made here are that as interesting and really more shocking as Kirwan?s stats were, a bruising running game and strong defense do win football games in January -- and a three year trend is simply too short of a period to get an accurate gauge.
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Pat Kirwan of nfl.com wrote an interesting piece last week introducing the theory that the running game was no longer necessary to win playoff games. His theory, albeit contrarian, seemed to have merit in that over the past nine rounds of the playoffs, only 6 of 26 winning teams produced a 100-yard rusher!
Let that soak in for a minute. Over the past three years, only 22% of teams winning their playoff games had a 100-yard rusher! What happened to three yards and a cloud of dust?
Kirwan quoted three sources, and citing three key theories for this trend. One offensive coordinator was quoted as saying: ?Only the best quarterbacks are left when you get to the playoffs, and they have a better chance of beating you with their arms than by handing off.?
An NFL defensive coordinator suggested; ?we are so wired in to a team?s running game after 17 weeks that we are very well prepared to stop good backs?
A personnel man offered that "you get against a team like Indianapolis or Minnesota, and you can't score fast enough on the ground to stay with them."
I sat and discussed these games with noted handicapper Carlo Campenalla. We hashed through these three points and could only conclude that they were statistical anomalies.
?Trends are overrated in the NFL,? Campenalla said. Then we watched four, count them, four 100-yard rushers blow the theory to kingdom come. Here is basic overview of the conversation, point by point.
Haven?t we seen just the opposite the past few years? Brad Johnson? Trent Dilfer? Rich Gannon? All quarterbacks who coaches were not thrilled to see passing. Also, haven?t we seen an influx of increasingly mobile, athletic quarterbacks capable of tucking and running just as easily as passing? Donovan McNabb, Duante Culpepper, Steve McNair and now Michael Vick? Theory number bites the dust!
How wired into the Steelers running game were the Jets? Were they not expecting Jerome Bettis to pound the ball as he rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown? How about the Rams? Apparently not very well prepared to stop Michael Vick 8-119 rushing and Warrick Dunn 142 yards and two touchdowns! So much for theory number two!
You absolutely can score fast enough on the ground against Indianapolis or Minnesota if your combined defenses give up 17 points! Theory number three makes sense when convenient. Now what?
The conclusions to be made here are that as interesting and really more shocking as Kirwan?s stats were, a bruising running game and strong defense do win football games in January -- and a three year trend is simply too short of a period to get an accurate gauge.
More about Betcom a leading online sportsbook and casino, based in San Jose Costa Rica and has been in business since 1997. Betcom is known as an industry leader in providing a multitude of sports, news, financial, entertainment and political wagers such as the 2004 Presidential race, State-by-State electoral vote winners, the J.Lo - Marc Anthony?s marriage, and reality shows such as The Apprentice and Survivor. Its popular online casino offers BlackJack, Poker, Roulette, slots, craps and other fun casino games.
