Ryder Cup 2012

LA Burns

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hello on the links forum, it's been a while......


anyhow, went on a bad posting run a couple of months back and decided to stay away until I thought that I had a play that warranted posting

making a large play this week on


Europe to retain cup +120


will be back with reasoning later on


until then, gl - burns
 
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LA Burns

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reason#1 - Europe is the fresher squad

i have to believe that Europe will be fresh as compared to the US, both physically and most importantly mentally - all 12 of the Americans played in last weeks Tour Championship and many played prominent roles down the stretch of all 4 playoff events - these guys have played a ton of golf as of late and the stakes have been a lot higher on this side of the pond - of course some of the Euros were involved in the latter stages of the playoffs but many were on the outside looking in and did not have the stress of being involved on Saturday and Sunday - there are also the guys (McDowell, Lawrie, Colsaerts, Kaymer, Poulter, Molinari, Hanson) that haven't had to grind for the past couple of weeks (esp with the Euro event in Spain cancelled last week)- so really when you look at it the only players who have really been through the meat grinder over the past 2-3 weeks are Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy, whereas on the US side many were involved up until the end last week


there is the ever-present argument of rest vs rust but the American side has played a ton of golf as of late (even with the week off before last week) and I believe that this will be a huge advantage for the Euros


reason #2 - experience


the experience level of the Euros greatly exceeds that of the Americans - many of these guys have been here before as I believe that Colsaerts is the only Ryder Cup rookie on the European side - meanwhile the US is trotting out multiple rookies in Simpson, Dufner, Sneds and Bradley - Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar have only played in one Ryder Cup - the Euros have come up in this environment and this is another reason that I really like them to retain the Cup


reason #3 - team chemistry


it seems to me that DL III is doing a really good job with this team as far as chemistry is concerned, and also find that Tiger is ready and willing to be a better teammate than he has been in the past - so think the US has come together as a team in a far better manner than they have in the past - that all being said, true chemstry is not something that is created in an artificial manner, but rather something that exists naturally and the Euro side has this quality in spades - these guys are truly like a family, whereas the American side will do well to come together as friends - that galvenizing quality is likely the #1 reason that the Euros have been so dominant in this format in recent history


reason #4 - individual team members' past performance levels


not going to list the Ryder Cup records of each player on both sides, but I will say this - there is not 1 member of the American team that has a winning record in the Ryder Cup - that is pretty damn telling




Not trying to talk anyone into anything, as I have made arguments this year for certain plays that probably sounded great going into the week but for one reason or another did not cash (DL III over David Toms in the US Open comes to mind) - just wanted to present my reasons for playing the Euros this week in the hopes of providing some insight and ending the golf season at MJ's on a positive note


GL to all no matter which side you choose, and let's hope that these matches are exciting and that the fan behavior does not trump the actual golf at the end of the week as the top story


LA Burns
 

LA Burns

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forgot one last thing...........

forgot one last thing...........

Seve


Think Jose Maria wants to win for his old compadre? And what about Sergio or asst captain MA Jimenez?

There is a silhouette of Seve on the Euro side's bag, and I hear that they will be decked out in all navy to honor him on Sunday - more fuel for the proverbial fire imo


good luck
 

Trizzle

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I read today that not a single US player playing this year has a winning Ryder Cup record. 8 of the Europeans playing this year have a winning record. Based on those stats, it seems Europe should be favored. Catching Europe at +125 or up to +145 at some places seems like the smart play.
 

Trizzle

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Rory McIlroy 1-1-2
Tiger Woods 13-14-2.
Luke Donald 8-2-1
Bubba Watson 1-3-0
Lee Westwood 16-11-6
Jason Dufner 0
Justin Rose 3-1-0
Keegan Bradley 0
Graeme McDowell 4-2-2
Webb Simpson 0
Sergio Garcia 14-6-4
Zach Johnson 3-3-1
Peter Hanson 1-2-0
Matt Kuchar 1-1-2
Ian Poulter 8-3-0
Phil Mickelson 11-17-6
Paul Lawrie 3-1-1
Dustin Johnson 1-3-0
Francesco Molinari 0-2-1
Jim Furyk 8-15-4
Martin Kaymer 2-1-1
Brandt Snedeker 0
Nicolas Colsaerts 0
Steve Stricker 3-3-1
 
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simonpjc

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Take the 10-1 on a tie if you flat bet the Europeans

Take the 10-1 on a tie if you flat bet the Europeans

Took the +150 on the Euro's and a small saver on the tie at 10-1. Had a thought of a conceded longish put by the Euro's on the last match if it results in a tie. The euro's could be up a point and concede the hole as it wouldn't matter because a tie and they retain the cup. I think Nicklaus did that once.
 

Chadman

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Love your angles, and agree. I also think the confidence of the Euro squad in general of late has to play into it. I think they expect to win these days.
 

LA Burns

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Took the +150 on the Euro's and a small saver on the tie at 10-1. Had a thought of a conceded longish put by the Euro's on the last match if it results in a tie. The euro's could be up a point and concede the hole as it wouldn't matter because a tie and they retain the cup. I think Nicklaus did that once.

This is the exact reason that i wanted to play Europe to retain the cup, or Euros plus 1/2 point

Tommyjay - if you have Europe +150 i'm pretty sure a tie will be a loss


gl to all - burns
 

Tommyjay

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Tommyjay - if you have Europe +150 i'm pretty sure a tie will be a loss


gl to all - burns


It's not 100% clear, but the odds suggest that it's a straight up match/up bet -170 and +150. Tie push.
Otherwise the odds would be like -130 and +150. A natural scalp discounting the draw.
Anyway, it wasn't presented as a three-way like other books show.
 

Stanley

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Day 1 foursomes play (2pts):

Tiger Woods & Steve Stricker to beat Ian Poulter & Justin Rose +105 @ SkyBet [available generally]
An impressive as the European pairing is in matchplay - both have winning records in this event - this is still being played at Medinah, USA, where the course has been set up, as usual, to favour the home team. And this is still the course on which Tiger has won two PGA Championships (it is also in the State in which Stricker has won three of the last four John Deere Classics). I see this as being a very close Ryder Cup and matches like this are ones that the Americans will need to win if it will be close. I'll certainly take plus-odds in this match.
 

Cie

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DUfner top rookie scorer +250
dufner top American scorer +1200
dufner top scorer +2000

4 ball
McDowell/ mcilroy -132 over sned/furyk
Duf/Johnson -125 over Westwood Molinari
Woods/strick -110 over poulter and rose


Glta
 

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
McIlroy/McDowell(-144) over Furyk/Snedeker
Donald/Garcia(-134) over Mickelson/Bradley
Dufner/Johnson(-125) over Westwood/Molinari
Poulter/Rose(+118) over Stricker/Woods

Zach Johnson(15/1) Top American

Europe(+138) over U.S.A.

GL
 

Cie

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DUfner top rookie scorer +250
dufner top American scorer +1200
dufner top scorer +2000

4 ball
McDowell/ mcilroy -132 over sned/furyk
Duf/Johnson -125 over Westwood Molinari
Woods/strick -110 over poulter and rose


Glta


looks like 2-1 in the morning. went large on duf/johnson this morning, and going large on djohnson/kuch in pm.

4 ball afternoon matchups

McDowell/ mcilroy -127 over mick/bradley
d johnson/kuchar -134 over rose /kaymer
colsaerts/westwood +119 over stricker/woods

glta
 
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