Safeway Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm I was looking at Daniels @ 365 @50/1 and they wouldn't accept but $9 maximum wager
Not an official play yet but it looked good for one finishing in top 5 bout 1/3 of time this year,however wins might be hard to come by as Annika and Pak won 6 of the remaining 7 events last year.

 

[Clive]

DTB, if you phone them they may let you have some more on. They usually do, althought sometimes you have to act incredulous when they say no.

I phoned last week to ask if they could lay a further ?7 after I had ?3 ew on somebody at 100/1.

Have backed Emilee Klein for this at 100/1.

Of those at the top I like Inkster, and Pak, but can't back her at single figures.

BTW, Daniel 50/1 at Stan James, 60/1 at Sports TAB

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got Klein on my short list also Clive. I was just going to throw a shits and grin $10 wager on Daniels at those odds and was surprised when they would not allow it. Got no prob with $9 as it is bout same. Will look for some top 5 place wagers for official wager unless centrebet temps me with a top 4 place.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Hee-Won Han to win 22/1 e.w. @ Centrebet and Stan James
Siding with three players who were in good form before the break for the Solheim Cup and did not play in that draining and demoralising (for the U.S. players) event, so should be very eager for the return to competitive golf. With five of her last six finishes being in the top-3 (two victories), there are certainly no questions about her form and while she did only finish 34th last year, she had missed the cut and finished 49th in the previous two weeks. Her effort last year represented an improvement on current form, so it is encouraging, though only a continuation of current form should be good enough this time around.

Grace Park to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James
With five top-3 finishes and no finish worse than 17th in her last ten starts, Park is, in comparison to the other two selections, the player most out-of-form. Again, a continuation of current form would be most welcome! As with Han, her lowly finish of 28th last year was when she was not in the best of form - she had not had a top-10 finish for two months - so it can be easily discounted, though she did finish 2nd on her only other visit in 1999. She shouldn't be too far away this time around.

Candie Kung to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Centrebet and Stan James
While the other two prices seemed large given current form and lack of Solheim Cup fatigue, this seemed particularly large given that Kung has finished 1st, 1st and 2nd in her last three events. It was far from a flash in the pan as she had finished no worse than 11th in four of her previous five starts before her winning streak. And with the other two, her lowly finish from last year was when she was playing much worse than at the moment - she had only one top-10 finish in the last seven events of the season. She looks set to have several more before 2003 is out.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outrights to place
Sure are some good odds at Centrebet but with only 4 places and the above mentioned late season form of Annita and Pak does leave many places for speculation however will opt for one wager there

Kung 10/1 (top 4)@ Centrebet
See Stan's notes above If you can't bet this wager on current form alone you got problems. Odds more than double her break even rate of return

----and another with odds at double rate of return
Beth Daniels 8/1 (top 5) @ 5 Dimes

and a couple of speculatory both

Emilee Klein 16/1 (top 5) @ 5 dimes
In agreement with Clive she's been a different player last half of season and has 2 top 5's here in last 4 events.

Karen Stupples 16/1 @ 5 Dimes
Another with good late season form and may pull some good vibes from her 3rd place finish here last year.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Beth Daniel to beat Sophie Gustafson -115 @ Five Dimes
Gustafson was in great form during the Solheim Cup and in the run-up to that event on the LET Tour, but expected a bit of wounded pride to be evident this week as the U.S. team players try to finish ahead of their European counterparts now that they are back in the U.S. Certainly expect that to be the case from Daniel who has been playing well for the last four months in particular and she should have a good chance of beating Gustafson who had missed her last four cuts on the LPGA Tour.

Cristie Kerr to beat Janice Moodie -118 @ Expekt
Similar angle here, though Moodie had not shown such poor form on the LPGA Tour before the Solheim Cup. However she did miss the cut last year and Kerr had her best finish for four months in her last event before her trip to Sweden.
(also available at Nordicbet)

Candie Kung to beat Laura Diaz -118 @ Expekt[3 units]
Also siding with Kung in the matchups given her current form. She has finished ahead of Diaz in four of their last five common events and she certainly would have wanted to keep playing rather than have the two weeks' inactivity due to the Solheim Cup.
(also available at Nordicbet)

Carin Koch to beat Becky Morgan -105 @ NordicBet [3 units]
Two players who had been moving in opposite directions before the Solheim Cup. Morgan appeared to be losing her form (and possibly her focus after being overlooked for the European Team), while Koch had been steadily improving. Her 4th place in the Wachovia LPGA Championship - her last event before the Solheim Cup - was her best tournament of the year and while Morgan could only manage a lowly 72nd place finish around this course last year, Koch has played here many times.

Jennifer Rosales to beat Wendy Ward -115 @ Five Dimes
Both have struggled on this course, but Rosales is in by far the better current form. She leads her opponent 3-0-0 h2h over the last three months and 11-3-1 h2h over the past year.

No 1st round plays.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

How far along is PML on pregnacy?

She wd 7 weeks back and hasn't played since and 5 Dimes have
Diaz @ -109 (72) and -115 (1st rd)

Shes pegged on the tee time slots today. Think she'll start???

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Cristie Kerr to beat Beth Daniel -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Hee-Won Han to beat Grace Park -120 @ Five Dimes
Michele Redman to beat Wendy Ward -125 @ Five Dimes

 

[Clive]

DTB

You're on fire! Do you think she can hang on???

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

No Clive I don't--not against this field. Just hope she hangs on for a top 4 or 5.

Diaz cost me a huge parlay yesterday and all she had to shoot was par

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Kerr/Daniel WON by 4
Han/Park WON by 2
Redman/Ward WON by 5

No 3rd round plays.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Finals
Daniels 2nd
Klein 28th
Kung and Stupples cut

week + 5 units ytd + 73.5

Made a good run but Annika's back to back eagles a tad too much.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +2.85 units

Daniel/Gustafson WON by 6
Kerr/Moodie WON by 13
Kung/Diaz WON by 1
Koch/Morgan LOST by 5

18-holes: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Han 17th
Park 9th
Kung mc

The only profitable event of the week and needed to be much more so to cover the losses elsewhere. Had high hopes of Park and Han after they began the final round in 6th and 8th place respectively, but both disappointed.

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 43-31; +17.98 units
18-holes: 40-33; +4.42 units
Outrights: 10-53; -33.60 units