Safeway International

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Grace Park to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
No American player has won this tournament since 1993 and there is a very strong chance that this streak will continue for at least another year. Annika Sorenstam may be approaching the odds that Tiger achieved during his winning run in 2000, but there is little value there. Instead, some of the Seoul Sisters appear to present a decent chance of securing a place finish at the very least. After the short, open course of last week's event, the Safeway International is played on a more traditional length course for the LPGA Tour (6,600 yards) but with only 20 acres of fairway on the Prospector course at Superstition Mountain, this is a very much tighter course than usual. That really doesn't suit Park's more powerful game, but it is hard to argue against a record of eleven consecutive top-10 finishes. She earned her fourth 2nd place finish in her last seven starts last week and will surely break through for another win sooner rather than later. She finished 2nd last year in this event.

Mi-Hyun Kim to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Kim didn't play last year, but she did finish 3rd in 2002 at the Moon Valley Country Club. This course is slightly longer, but the emphasis on straight driving and, as with all Nicklaus courses, greens in regulation will suit Kim for more than last week's event where she still managed to finish 8th. Can't see her winning in this company, but at these odds, it would still be a very nice return for a top-5 finish. Available at 50/1 wit Stan James, but the loss of a place is important with this player.

Hee-Won Han to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Han did play last year and finished 3rd alongside Sorenstam and behind Park so she completes a trio of players who have at least good memories of this event. As with Kim, her game is more focused on straight hitting off the tee and onto the greens, so she should be suited to this course. A top-30 finish last week will hopefully have blown the cobwebs off her game following the three-month off-season and it mirrored her start last year when she played so well in the 2nd week of the season (this event). Despite the very strong field, these seem large odds for a player who won twice in 2003.
 

Clive

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Like Grace, but having backed her at 14 last week w/o Annika, I'm loathe to support her with Annika in the field.

Thought MyHun played very well last week but I'm looking to oppose Han (watch her win now!) in any realsitic matches as she may be more rusty then most having got married and honeymooned over the off-season!

Will go for Lorena Ochoa at 66/1 which is huge compared to her odds last season and she wasn't that bad last week.

When you consider the likes of Stupples and Lee are around 33, the 50/1 about Juli Inkster certainly raised my eyebrows and in an event where there is little to go on that's far too big.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Does the 50/1 Inkster book have place only available Clive? If so get me bout $20 worth and I'll gladly reimburse you.:)

If E/W only available I'll pass. I like her at 10/1 return but not 5/1 which I deem most probable in trying to beat the trio Annika-Grace and Pak in the 1st slot.

---and what about Stupples last week---Backed her several times to no avail last year and didn't have a penny on her last week:(

Wierd dam differences in scores out of top echalon. Hard to know what to make of it on 6,100 yard course---and they had 9 players with 290+ driving ave--The the F gives there:confused:
 
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Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Stacy Prammanasudh to beat Michelle Ellis -105 @ NordicBet [4.5pts]
Successfully opposed Ellis last week, reportedly injured anyway, and will do so again this week. Many are expecting a bright future for Prammanasudh who was the Futures Tour Player of the Year last year, finishing top of their money list. She certainly sowed tat promise when finishing in the top-5 last week and wile odds of 100/1 were passed over for the outright market, this represents a good opportunity to back a promising player.

Hee-Won Han to beat Sophie Gustafson -111 @ Stan James
Han did finish a sot behind Gustafson last week, but it was her opening event of the year against the third one for the Swede. I'm expecting a less rusty performance from Han this week and on a course that will penalise wayward driving, Gustafson should struggle to match last week's top-20 finish.

Cristie Kerr to beat Meg Mallon -111 @ Expekt [3pts]
It was certainly a rusty performance from Mallon last week as she shot five-over-par on a very easy course to miss the cut. Kerr did manage a top-25 finish and looks as though she could pick up from where she left off in 2003 - four top-10 finishes in her last five events. Having also finished in the top-10 in toe last two years in this event, Kerr has good reason to be optimistic about this week.

Lorena Ochoa to beat Meg Mallon -125 @ Stan James
Ochoa also finished well ahead of Mallon last week and should also prosper more on the more demanding course this week. She was a student at the University of Arizona so has plenty of local connections and could very easily match her top-10 finish of last year. It will take a huge improvement in form for Mallon to achieve that.

Jung Yeon Lee to beat Michelle Wie +100 @ Stan James [4.5pts]
Opposing all the hype about Wie. Yes, she nearly made the cut in the Sony Open on the PGA Tour, but her record on the LPGA Tour is less than impressive. Just one top-10 finish in nine starts and no other top-25 finishes. She is talking about being a joint member of the LPGA and PGA Tour in the future with her aim of playing in the Masters. This is all rather premature and she really should focus on short-term goals first. I'll gladly back a player who has finished 2nd, 6th, 7th and 2nd (last week) in her last four LPGA Tour events.

Grace Park to beat Karrie Webb -154 @ Expekt
Short odds, but no hesitation in backing Park again. Se has finished ahead of Webb in each of their last seven common events so on that basis alone, there is still value here.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Looks like 5 dimes not offering place wagers with Annika in field--does not surprise.

Couple of matches look good.
Ochoa over Wie--I concur with Stan 100% on Wie
and
Daniels over Gustafson

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Tough trying to slide a top 4 in this crew considering the big 3 took up 37 top 5's last year but might venture out on one who was not too shabby finishing top 5's herself with 7 in 20 events and early season form not that bad getting out of blocks with a 7th and 5th and don't believe she ever went of at these odds.
Daniel @ 12.50 to place
 
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Stanley

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I thought you migt agree DTB ;)


Adding (1.5pts unless stated):

Grace Park to beat Karrie Webb -120 @ Five Dimes
Five Dimes were very late in producing odds for this event with the upshot being that I jumped on what now seems very uncompetitive odds on this matchup. But at these odds and given the reasons above, there is still good reason to top up on this play.

Lorena Ochoa to beat Michelle Wie -115 @ Five Dimes [4.5pts]
I wasn't going to oppose Wie too many times this week, just in case Leadbetter's swing changes did produce a player closer to the hype. But will oppose her with a player over whom there was much hype a year ago and does have a local connection. Ochoa has proved herself far more on the golf course than Wie and should improve her current 4-1-0 h2h record against the 9th-grader.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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:) Was in complete agreement on most as always. Got to Stan James in time to catch several before line movement.
Was quite surprised to see Park @ those odds at 5 dimes this morning. Maybe march madness in hoops has most their resources busy this week. Lines in general looked a little weaker there this week---I hope thats the case and not just bad judgement on my part.
 

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -1.50pts

Park 3rd
Kim 62nd
Han mc

Small loss as the latter two players failed to feature beyond the first round. Yet another top-5 finish from Park. Another good performance after the first round left her wit too much ground to make up on the leaders.

Matchups - Final update: 6-1-0; +19.34pts

Prammanasudh/Ellis WON by 8
Han/Gustafson LOST by 5
Kerr/Mallon WON by 20
Ochoa/Mallon WON by 17
Lee/Wie WON by 1
Park/Webb WON by 15
Ochoa/Wie WON by 9

A top-20 performance was as good as Wie could produce and that was not worth the hype. A very profitable week on the matchups wit all but one decided by very convincing margins.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-4; -2.12pts
Matchups: 8-2; +20.57pts
 
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