Safeway International

[DOGS THAT BARK]

outright e/w top 4 w/o Sorenstam @ GG

Grace Park 18/1
Ochoa 12/1

to place only @ Cbet top 5
Han 8.25/1

Rarily forfeit a wager with 2 e/w in same event but will make exception here w/o sorenstam. If sorenstam places in top 4 which is likely it will make equivilent of top 5 at GG.
Considering Park and Ochoa finished top 5 in 21 of 43 events between them last year it would only take a place from either to not lose--will donate $10 to GG for that scenerio.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Lorena Ochoa to win 12/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods (w/o Sorenstam market)
Ochoa is available at 14/1 and five places at a number of places, but looks better value in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market at just a couple of points lower. She has played well so far this season, particularly in South Africa and in Mexico where the pressure on her was immense from the home anticipation and this was not helped by being paired with Sorenstam for the first two rounds. So, playing much more freely this week and on a course where she finished 3rd last year, she should play well again this week.

Cristie Kerr to win 18/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Bet365
Surprising odds for a player who finished 2nd last year, setting the course record by two shots on the way, and has finished 2nd and 3rd in her two starts this year. That she finally buckled under the pressure from Sorenstam to relinquish the lead with just one round to play in Mexico would suggest that the 'w/o Sorenstam' market may be the better option, but there is no comparison in the odds which are half those on offer at Stan James and Bet365.

Michelle Wie to win 25/1 e.w. @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Did consider Grace Park at 18/1 in the 'w/o Sorenstam market', but she pulled out of Monday's pro-am with a back injury, so will opt for Michelle Wie instead. With just one start this year and that resulting in a 2nd place finish, it is difficult to explain why any more than 20/1 is on offer. Maybe her 19th place finish on this course last year is the reason, but it was her first start of the season so some rustiness is to be expected and she was a year younger. I would be very surprised to see her outside the top-10 this time.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Carin Koch to beat Laura Diaz -110 @ SkyBet
Give Koch the edge in this match having played on this course last year and Diaz not and while, they have split their two matches this year, Diaz beat Koch by just a single shot in Mexico whereas Koch beat Diaz by nine the previous week to highlight her greater consistency.
(also available at Paddy Power)

Jenny Rosales to beat Se Ri Pak +100 @ BetFred
Pak may have finished ahead of Rosales last year on this course, but there has been a marked reversal in form since, with Rosales beating Pak in eight of their last eleven common events and the last occasion was only because Rosales withdrew after the first round - Pak finished 54th. Already a winner this year in Hawaii, Rosales looks the far likelier contender for the title this week and that makes evens pretty good odds.

May post more plays later when Five Dimes finally release their matchups.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ Cbet
Safeway International - Tournament Head to Heads - PAK v WIE - Head to Head - WIE, Michelle Win 1.85

1st rd @ 5 Dimes
Grace Park -120 over Wie

Wie ties off 1st which should be in temps of high 40's--don't think condusive to native state--Park goes in afternoon.
Unusual cool temps projected especially on week end--look for afternoon scores to get best of it today.

Have a 72 hole to add later--but thiking odds may improve--so will hold off.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (3pts):

Annika Sorenstam to beat Cristie Kerr -155 @ Five Dimes
There really should be shorter odds on a player who is 6/4 to win the event against one who is 10/1 at best. Sorenstam has a 11-3-0 h2h record against Kerr over the last year and is aiming for her fourth straight Safeway title. I didn't think there would be many value opportunities for backing Sorenstam this year, but when I make her a 78% chance to win this match, this is easily a double-play.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ 5dimes
Grace Park -110 over Wie

Was hoping report on back my draw in some Wie money and get better odds but not to be.While her back couldbe issue especially in light of cool weather, it is muscle issue she has had since turning pro quite like couples usually treated with massage or accu punture.My opinion her being Arizona State Alumni and calling it her 2nd home and being probably the most prolific lpga player on zona soil outweigh chance of back flaring up.
Since 02 in events in zona she is 2-2 vs Annika,6-0 vs Webb,and
5-0-1 vs Ocho.
Wie did beat Grace 2 of 6 in 04 but further review shows those were Grace's worst 2 events in 04 a cut and 64th.

 

[Stanley]

One more ... (1.5pts)

Michelle Wie to beat Se Ri Pak -135 @ Expekt
Adding another play against the struggling Pak and with a much stronger opponent than Rosales. Wie may have finished behind Rosales in her opening event of the season, but as an outright selection, she is considered the better chance to win this week and extend her run to consecutive head-to-head victories against Pak.

D'oh!!! -125 at Centrebet ... totally missed that one until reading DTB's post above :cursin:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was strange call on Ochoa yesterday on penalty--I don't understand why they didn't consider 3rd opition that they walked right by it 1st time without seeing. It was in gravel same color as ball. To rule someone must have shook it from bush was strange considering no one was aware they did????

Looked hard for Wie vs Park match today--but none to be found--could have hedged a worst case scenerio from 1-1 between them to 2-1.
Been watching tape delay of event--wish it was live

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

oops forgot play
Wie -130 over Rosales @ 5Dimes

Rosales falls off last rd even event she won--has finished 73-74-75 last 3--Wie holds 4-1 4th rd edge vs Rosales in events in common and this is one of longer courses they play @ 6,600+ and if no rain todat bout 50% chance and greens firming up,distance should be premium.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +8.25pts

Ochoa 1st
Kerr 18th
Wie 12th

Thankyou Golfinggods for the 'w/o Sorenstam' market! Ochoa never relinquished the lead from the first day, but put the pressure on herself with a double-bogey on the 16th in the third round to cut her lead to one and she did exactly the same thing in the final round. So when she dropped a shot on the next hole and failed to birdie the par-five last hole, she could only manage to tie Annika's clubhouse score. With that momentum, there was only going to be one winner in the playoff and Annika won it with only a par on the first extra hole. That would have been a painful loss on the Ochoa play if it had not been for Golfinggods' market!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-1-0; +4.35pts

Koch/Diaz LOST by 5
Rosales/Pak WON (Pak wd)
Sorenstam/Kerr WON by 9
Wie/Pak WON (Pak wd)

A good result on the matchups to round off a very profitable event. Had hoped for the sweep with Koch leading Diaz by two with just one round to play, but she had a very poor final round.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-6; +11.37pts
Matchups: 8-4; +14.11pts