San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

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We're recommending a play Under the total tonight as the Denver Nuggets host the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs lead the Midwest division at 22-11 overall this season. Following a slow start the reigning champions had won 13 straight games before losing 83-77 to the Allen Iverson-less 76ers. "They were more physical and more aggressive in every way on the court," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "They took the win and they deserved the win."

Tonight they will be without shooting guard Manu Ginobli who will miss with a lower back injury. The Argentinean will be hard to replace as he is the Spurs #3 scorer, a dangerous perimeter shooter, very solid at the free throw line and a disruptive influence on defense.

San Antonio are 4-12 Over/Under recently and those games have averaged just 169 ppg which is well under tonight's posted total.

At 20-14 overall the Nuggets are 2 1/2 games back from the Spurs. The Nuggets last three home games have resulted in totals of 160, 155 and 182 points.
They lost 84-76 to Atlanta Saturday and their lack of intensity upset coach Jeff Bzdelik. "We were destroyed, manhandled, push around, and bullied underneath on the boards," he coach said. "This was a replay of the Toronto loss." Like the Spurs, Denver will be very motivated tonight coming off of a very disappointing loss.

The last eight meetings between these teams have averaged just 169 points per game and all of them would have gone Under tonight's line of 181 1/2.

We're expecting at least one very low-scoring quarter and whoever scores 90 points will win this game.

Recommended Play: Under 181 1/2
 

THE NAKED ONE

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I don't have much of an opinion either way on this total, but I think that saying that "the last eight meetings between these teams have averaged just 169 points per game and all of them would have gone under tonight's line of 181 1/2" is misleading since this year's Nugget's team has nothing to do with last year's team.

They play a different style of ball this year.

They have scored 1,822 points at home this year in 17 games, which is an average of 107.18 points per game. Using *********'s closing totals (for better or worse), as a home favorite they have gone over the total 10 times and under just 5 times. As a home dog they have gone over 1 time and under 1 time. So at home THIS SEASON, they have gone over the total 11 out of 17 times (64.7%).

Of course none of these games are being played tonight against the Spurs. Tonight's game is of indepedent of the other 17 home games this season. Way back on 10/29 of this season (their first game of the season) they played the Spurs in Denver and beat them 80-72. So that game WAS low scoring, but it was also the first game of the season when most teams in the NBA were not scoring a lot of points.

As I said before, I don't have much of an opinion on the total for tonight's game, but I just don't see how the last 8 meetings between these two teams has very much to do with the number of points that will be scored tonight.

Your plays are generally very good, and you may be right on for tonight's game, but I wouldn't use the recent history between these two teams as a reason to bet anything.

Good luck with the play. Hopefully they score 160.
 

redking

Jedi Knight
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good info

good info

I like your info The Naked One. Yer not bashing and putting up some good numbers to back yer case up. This is what this site is all about! I was leaning on the under too, but will have to cap this game some more. :) :D
 
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Champion Plays

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Thanks for your response Naked One.

Always good to hear the other side of a play before pulling the trigger.

Am about to post the Nets -8 for tonight.
 
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