Let's see if we can continue yesterday's good form...
NRL:
Season to date - 17-14 (54.84%)
Game 3) West Tigers v Bulldogs, Campbelltown Stadium, 17:00 CST
Tigers -3.5
The Tigers favourite? The same Tigers that were beaten last Friday 38-22 by the Eagles
?
Yes, the Tigers are a tough side to beat at home - 3-1 ATS - but the Doggies have been good value on the road this season - 3-2 ATS, 2-1 SU and ATS as a dog. The Dogs will be livid at blowing a huge lead in the last eight minutes against the Warriors in Wellington last Saturday and while they aren't as hot as they were at the start of the season, they have faced tough opponents of late - beaten previously by the Broncos and Roosters.
The Tigers run hot and cold, with their best results coming with their backs against the wall. Yet eventually the loss of Field, McGuinness and Hopoate will hurt the side. There is little inspiration in their backline and they rely chiefly on a tough forward pack. The Bulldogs should be able to meet that challenge head-on and have a host of possible game-breakers with the pace of Vagana, Patten and Howland in the backline. Add in the spat between disgruntled centre terry Hill and coach Terry Lamb over training routines and I like the road dog here.
PLAY BULLDOGS +3.5
Game 4) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels, WIN Stadium, 19:00 CST
Dragons -3.5
At least the home team is rightly favoured here. The Dragons have been en fuego in the last three weeks, running up over 40 points in three big victories. But let's look a little closer at their opponents - Eagles (48-18), Cowboys (48-12) and Panthers (42-14). No world-beaters there. The Eels are a different class, even though they have struggled for consistency to date. Last week they would have been disappointed to draw 14-14 at Nth Qld after leading 12-4 at the break. A week earlier they thumped the Storm 42-18. The Eels have a habit of bouncing back strongly from poor efforts and raising themselves for big match-ups. They also have the second best defensive record in the comp.
PLAY EELS +3.5
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Bruce Stadium, 13:35 CST
Raiders -11.5
Big chalk again with the home team in Canberra! As I did with the Brumbies last night in the Super 12, I believe the Raiders can cover this despite the Cowboys being 5-3ATS and holding the Eels to a 14-14 draw last weekend. The Cowboys aren't a good travelling side and have used 30 first-grade players this season already - not a good sign when your first-choice side isn't that stacked to begin with. Brett Finch will be looking to make amends for his last-second horror last weekend and should get great support up front from the likes of Jason Croker, Simon Woolford and Luke Davico to give him and Andrew McFadden the go-forward to wreak havoc against the weak-tackling Cowboys.
PLAY RAIDERS -11.5
Super 12:
Season to Date - 17-7 (70.83%)
Game 4) Chiefs v Sharks, Taupo, 17:05 CST
Chiefs -2.5
No better person to provide a preview for this than the man on the desk to my left; Waikato Times sports ed and rugby writer supreme Evan Pegden!!
The Chiefs face an acid test tonight in Taupo on the eve of their departure for South Africa.
In their final home match of this year's Super 12 rugby series they face the Natal-based Sharks _ the second of four consecutive South African opponents.
They must show they can compete with the ``big boys'' in the set pieces or points will be hard to come by tonight and in the next two weeks against the Bulls in Pretoria and Stormers in Cape Town.
Last Sunday the Chiefs hung on for a victory that defied both possession and territorial statistics, of which they had only about a quarter share. Their stoic defence, enabled by superb fitness, was also aided by a bumbling Cats team that showed similar poor handling and inability to finish moves for a while against the Blues last night before gaining their first win outside the republic.
The Sharks look a much more dangerous attacking outfit, with better skills with ball in hand and a wider variety of moves in both the backs and forwards.
Scrums, lineouts and kickoffs were all areas the Chiefs scored poorly in last week and coach John Mitchell has tried to address all of them in training this week as well as work on cutting down mistakes with ball in hand and getting some smarter thinking going.
Mitchell's former Waikato team-mate, Richard Loe, was again flown in from Canterbury to work with the Chiefs' scrum at training, both on the scrum machine and in some live scrummaging work between two packs from within the squad at Pukekohe on Tuesday.
A healthy Mark Cooksley should be able to make a bigger contribution at lineout and kickoff time this week after being wracked by a stomach bug during the match against the Cats but it is interesting Mitchell has not been tempted to bring back a fit again Jonno Gibbes, at least onto the bench, to bolster those areas.
``We clearly see this as a must-win game and are sticking with those guys that have played winning rugby,'' Mitchell said in a statement.
His only changes to the match 22 are in midfield and reserve hooker.
Centre Keith Lowen returns in place of Scott McLeod, Mark Ranby being passed fit after an ankle problem during the week and moving back to second five-eighths. Paul Mitchell returns to the bench as the back-up hooker, having missed the last two games with a groin muscle tear.
"We know it's going to be a huge battle. At training this week we have focused on getting more consistency in our play and reducing our error rate with the ball in hand," Mitchell said.
"We have to use the ball more intelligently so we don't put ourselves under so much pressure and we're expecting defence to again be a key part of our game."
Sharks coach Rudolph Straeuli has made four changes to the starting line-up that won against the Blues, three of them in the forwards. Former Bok star Andre Snyman returns at centre in place of Deon Kayser, while in the pack flanker Warren Brosnihan, lock Philip Smit and prop Brent Moyle return for Warren Britz, Albert van den Berg and Etienne Fynn respectively after coming off the bench last week.
Straeuli made his selections with a wary eye on the Taupo weather and if it stays fine as forecast it will be interesting to see if there are any last-minute changes for a more fast-paced game. John Mitchell also showed last weekend with his late midfield switch that he is prepared to pull such moves.
Referee tonight is Andrew Cole, the second of four Australians the Chiefs have in a row, but the feeling is that he has a scrum-setting style more akin to those of the New Zealand and South African refs, rather than like his compatriots Stuart Dickinson and Wayne Erickson, who delay the halfback putting the ball in until they are satisfied the scrum is steady.
Whether he will also be more vigilant on opposition moves to slow down the recycling and flow of secondary phase possession is another matter.
What else can I say! Believe the Chiefs need this more than the Sharks, who got 5 pts on the road v the Blues and are sitting pretty at the top of the table. And Mitchell is one sharp cookie - rang the office Thurs afternoon wanting to know if we had the Sharks side as he was altering his game-plan accoring to who fronted for the Sharks. No Super 12 coach spends more time in front of the video than Mitchell and it shows in the Chiefs defence. And they spent plenty of time on the practice field too - I should know; they train 500 metres from my office!
PLAY CHIEFS -2.5
Game 5) Bulls v Queensland Reds, 22:30 CST
Bulls +1.5
Bottom-of-the-table Bulls, 2-4 ATS and winless, only their mother could love 'em, right? No - I do. Reds are 4-2 ATS but can't seem to win one, although they do have Ben Tune and Daniel Herbert back from the last-gasp loss to the Stormers. But now they go to altitude against a team just desperate in front of their home fans for victory. The Bulls have made 10 changes - some positional, some in personnel - after letting a sizeable HT lead against the Crusaders slip away last weekend. And the Bulls tend to play well one week and then fall away the next. This time it may be their time.
PLAY BULLS +1.5
Am passing on the Hurricanes v Highlanders and Stormers v Crusaders games. If you have to have action on all matches, I lean to the 'Canes -8.5 and the Stormers -2.5, but am content just to watch.
And in a rare excursion into the horse field; if your book takes wagers on the AJC Derby at Randwick today; look for a Kiwi roughie in Sir Clive if the track is soft. Got it at 26-1 at NSW TAB earlier at fixed odds - NZ Derby runner-up who stays like the mother-in-law and loves the sting out. If you want something shorter, you should get Sale of the Century at 5s or so.
GLTA
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-13-2001).]
NRL:
Season to date - 17-14 (54.84%)
Game 3) West Tigers v Bulldogs, Campbelltown Stadium, 17:00 CST
Tigers -3.5
The Tigers favourite? The same Tigers that were beaten last Friday 38-22 by the Eagles
Yes, the Tigers are a tough side to beat at home - 3-1 ATS - but the Doggies have been good value on the road this season - 3-2 ATS, 2-1 SU and ATS as a dog. The Dogs will be livid at blowing a huge lead in the last eight minutes against the Warriors in Wellington last Saturday and while they aren't as hot as they were at the start of the season, they have faced tough opponents of late - beaten previously by the Broncos and Roosters.
The Tigers run hot and cold, with their best results coming with their backs against the wall. Yet eventually the loss of Field, McGuinness and Hopoate will hurt the side. There is little inspiration in their backline and they rely chiefly on a tough forward pack. The Bulldogs should be able to meet that challenge head-on and have a host of possible game-breakers with the pace of Vagana, Patten and Howland in the backline. Add in the spat between disgruntled centre terry Hill and coach Terry Lamb over training routines and I like the road dog here.
PLAY BULLDOGS +3.5
Game 4) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels, WIN Stadium, 19:00 CST
Dragons -3.5
At least the home team is rightly favoured here. The Dragons have been en fuego in the last three weeks, running up over 40 points in three big victories. But let's look a little closer at their opponents - Eagles (48-18), Cowboys (48-12) and Panthers (42-14). No world-beaters there. The Eels are a different class, even though they have struggled for consistency to date. Last week they would have been disappointed to draw 14-14 at Nth Qld after leading 12-4 at the break. A week earlier they thumped the Storm 42-18. The Eels have a habit of bouncing back strongly from poor efforts and raising themselves for big match-ups. They also have the second best defensive record in the comp.
PLAY EELS +3.5
Game 5) Canberra Raiders v Nth Queensland Cowboys, Bruce Stadium, 13:35 CST
Raiders -11.5
Big chalk again with the home team in Canberra! As I did with the Brumbies last night in the Super 12, I believe the Raiders can cover this despite the Cowboys being 5-3ATS and holding the Eels to a 14-14 draw last weekend. The Cowboys aren't a good travelling side and have used 30 first-grade players this season already - not a good sign when your first-choice side isn't that stacked to begin with. Brett Finch will be looking to make amends for his last-second horror last weekend and should get great support up front from the likes of Jason Croker, Simon Woolford and Luke Davico to give him and Andrew McFadden the go-forward to wreak havoc against the weak-tackling Cowboys.
PLAY RAIDERS -11.5
Super 12:
Season to Date - 17-7 (70.83%)
Game 4) Chiefs v Sharks, Taupo, 17:05 CST
Chiefs -2.5
No better person to provide a preview for this than the man on the desk to my left; Waikato Times sports ed and rugby writer supreme Evan Pegden!!
The Chiefs face an acid test tonight in Taupo on the eve of their departure for South Africa.
In their final home match of this year's Super 12 rugby series they face the Natal-based Sharks _ the second of four consecutive South African opponents.
They must show they can compete with the ``big boys'' in the set pieces or points will be hard to come by tonight and in the next two weeks against the Bulls in Pretoria and Stormers in Cape Town.
Last Sunday the Chiefs hung on for a victory that defied both possession and territorial statistics, of which they had only about a quarter share. Their stoic defence, enabled by superb fitness, was also aided by a bumbling Cats team that showed similar poor handling and inability to finish moves for a while against the Blues last night before gaining their first win outside the republic.
The Sharks look a much more dangerous attacking outfit, with better skills with ball in hand and a wider variety of moves in both the backs and forwards.
Scrums, lineouts and kickoffs were all areas the Chiefs scored poorly in last week and coach John Mitchell has tried to address all of them in training this week as well as work on cutting down mistakes with ball in hand and getting some smarter thinking going.
Mitchell's former Waikato team-mate, Richard Loe, was again flown in from Canterbury to work with the Chiefs' scrum at training, both on the scrum machine and in some live scrummaging work between two packs from within the squad at Pukekohe on Tuesday.
A healthy Mark Cooksley should be able to make a bigger contribution at lineout and kickoff time this week after being wracked by a stomach bug during the match against the Cats but it is interesting Mitchell has not been tempted to bring back a fit again Jonno Gibbes, at least onto the bench, to bolster those areas.
``We clearly see this as a must-win game and are sticking with those guys that have played winning rugby,'' Mitchell said in a statement.
His only changes to the match 22 are in midfield and reserve hooker.
Centre Keith Lowen returns in place of Scott McLeod, Mark Ranby being passed fit after an ankle problem during the week and moving back to second five-eighths. Paul Mitchell returns to the bench as the back-up hooker, having missed the last two games with a groin muscle tear.
"We know it's going to be a huge battle. At training this week we have focused on getting more consistency in our play and reducing our error rate with the ball in hand," Mitchell said.
"We have to use the ball more intelligently so we don't put ourselves under so much pressure and we're expecting defence to again be a key part of our game."
Sharks coach Rudolph Straeuli has made four changes to the starting line-up that won against the Blues, three of them in the forwards. Former Bok star Andre Snyman returns at centre in place of Deon Kayser, while in the pack flanker Warren Brosnihan, lock Philip Smit and prop Brent Moyle return for Warren Britz, Albert van den Berg and Etienne Fynn respectively after coming off the bench last week.
Straeuli made his selections with a wary eye on the Taupo weather and if it stays fine as forecast it will be interesting to see if there are any last-minute changes for a more fast-paced game. John Mitchell also showed last weekend with his late midfield switch that he is prepared to pull such moves.
Referee tonight is Andrew Cole, the second of four Australians the Chiefs have in a row, but the feeling is that he has a scrum-setting style more akin to those of the New Zealand and South African refs, rather than like his compatriots Stuart Dickinson and Wayne Erickson, who delay the halfback putting the ball in until they are satisfied the scrum is steady.
Whether he will also be more vigilant on opposition moves to slow down the recycling and flow of secondary phase possession is another matter.
What else can I say! Believe the Chiefs need this more than the Sharks, who got 5 pts on the road v the Blues and are sitting pretty at the top of the table. And Mitchell is one sharp cookie - rang the office Thurs afternoon wanting to know if we had the Sharks side as he was altering his game-plan accoring to who fronted for the Sharks. No Super 12 coach spends more time in front of the video than Mitchell and it shows in the Chiefs defence. And they spent plenty of time on the practice field too - I should know; they train 500 metres from my office!
PLAY CHIEFS -2.5
Game 5) Bulls v Queensland Reds, 22:30 CST
Bulls +1.5
Bottom-of-the-table Bulls, 2-4 ATS and winless, only their mother could love 'em, right? No - I do. Reds are 4-2 ATS but can't seem to win one, although they do have Ben Tune and Daniel Herbert back from the last-gasp loss to the Stormers. But now they go to altitude against a team just desperate in front of their home fans for victory. The Bulls have made 10 changes - some positional, some in personnel - after letting a sizeable HT lead against the Crusaders slip away last weekend. And the Bulls tend to play well one week and then fall away the next. This time it may be their time.
PLAY BULLS +1.5
Am passing on the Hurricanes v Highlanders and Stormers v Crusaders games. If you have to have action on all matches, I lean to the 'Canes -8.5 and the Stormers -2.5, but am content just to watch.
And in a rare excursion into the horse field; if your book takes wagers on the AJC Derby at Randwick today; look for a Kiwi roughie in Sir Clive if the track is soft. Got it at 26-1 at NSW TAB earlier at fixed odds - NZ Derby runner-up who stays like the mother-in-law and loves the sting out. If you want something shorter, you should get Sale of the Century at 5s or so.
GLTA
[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-13-2001).]
