Sat May 28

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I won't have the patience or brain cells available to crunch any numbers for these, but I'm going to ramble on re some early thoughts.
Plan is to come back later and see what I said and compare to lines and Fri action.

1 sd(Stauffer)@Wash(Zimmerman)
Tough call. Zim's been the better SP, lately. SD prefers the road while Wash prefers home. Wash the much better club hitting-wise, lately (7-day OPS for Wash .726 with sd at a pathetic .477). Good showing Fri and similar line (-120'ish) would tempt me.

1 pit(Maholm-L)@Chc(R.Wells)
Wells coming off DL after surviving only 1 start vs 'zona early April--he was quite good, there. Maholm always a tough call; he's 7-2 vs Chi, in 14, but with a 5.89 era and .300 baa. Cubs enjoyed L last season but no so much this time around. Cubs the better hitting team, lately, and not getting much respect from linesmakers. Cubs only -108, Fri (is D.Davis, mind you), and similar will have me scratching my head and likely risking.

4 sf(Sanchez-L)@Mil(Wolf-L)
Big edge Mil sticks--overall, lately and esp. home. Both SP's unpredictable; prefer Sanchez but not enough to warrant action. Mil likely -115 to -135 which means a pass, here.

7 ariz(Duke-L)@Hou(W.Rodriguez-L)
Duke off DL and rehab starts were apparently unimpressive; I've never been impressed by this guy. Wandy 0-1 in 4 home starts but he's historically been much better at home; pretty good, lately. 'zona bats the more productive, lately, and the better club vs L. Hou 6-3 home to L, ariz 1-5 at L. Hard to back Hou bats, lately, and I won't touch Duke, at least not here. 'zona the better BP. Hou likely -120 to -130, I'l guessing. Small runline play of nothing, if +150 or so is happening.


ticking away the moments that make up a dull day

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

7 stl(Garcia-L)@Col(Nicasio)
I don't know shit about debuter Nicasio other than he's a 24-yr old righty. No way I'm fading Garcia, here. Col 4-3 home to L, stl 13-9 at R. I can't even guess at the price, here. stl for reasonable will tempt me. Holliday should play in this series, back at his old stomping grounds.

7 phil(Hamels-L)@Nym(Pelfrey)
Cole was destroyed by the Mets, at home, back on April 5th and he's only 2-9 vs in 14 meetings (.313 baa, too). He's been solid since, though, and I totally prefer him to the erratic Pelfrey, who was clobbered at Phil on April 29 and his numbers vs, in 15, are not very good, save a 6-5 record vs. Mets 5-3 home to L, phil 8-8 at R. phil for a similar price (-125'ish) might be a go as Mets are in dissarray.

7 cin(Arroyo)@Atl(Lowe)
I think that Lowe's dui charges been dropped, for whatever that's worth. Arroyo too erratic and he's been hit hard this year, esp. via the long-ball; he's 6-3 vs but the other numbers vs kinda suck. Lowe's numbers vs and overall more appealing and he's certainly more consistent. Neither club scoring great, lately. cin 9-10 @R, Atl 11-7 home to R. Atl the better BP. Price should be less than Fri's -159 but maybe not enough to try it. Arroyo can sometimes compete and he might do so in this pitcher's park against a rather chilly offense.

10 flor(tbd)@Lad(Kuroda)
Hendrix-only knows.
Can't touch Lad as they might be in more dissarray than the Mets; heard they've even got potential payroll problems. Kuroda 1-1 vs in 5, other numbers vs pretty decent; he is also unpredictable but is mostly decent at home. Neither offense outstanding, lately.


you fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

1 cws(Jackson)@Tor(Villanueva)
Another erratic SP in Jackson; numbers reasonable vs Jays. Carlos might turn out to be a good pick-up by the Jays as he was great in relief before turning in 5 solid innings at Yankee Stadium while grabbing a W; Jays BP--mid-relief, at least--is usually reliable and might back up a solid effort again. Both clubs O's reasonably productive lately but can come and go from game to game. cws 10-12 @R, Tor 7-9 home to R. Jays will be tempting for me--as always--but I need much closer to even money than the -132 posted for Fri.

4 clev(Carrasco)@Tb(Shields)
Carrasco was crap vs at home on May 11th--his only vs--and his overall numbers this year and prior don't give me a Shields. James has been looking fantastic and while he's only 1-4 vs, in 7, the 1 came at Clev back on May 12th, where he was quite good. Sizemore likely in while Hafner still out. O's comparable lately and clev's obviously prefers home-cooking this season. BP's fairly comparable. I can't see the TB price being under -150 but might be worthy of a parlay, or even a 1st5 -0.5 if I can book for near even money. Shields will get Cy consideration if he keeps things up while Carrasco will get my fade consideration if he keeps things up.
clev 8-9 @R while 13-3 home vs R
Tb 9-11 home to R

7 kc(O'Sullivan)@Tex(Harrison-L)
I can't touch O'Sullivan unless he's pitching at home vs Twinkies as a dog. He's actually 2-0 vs Tex (in 3 GS, 1 relief) but that's just another reminder of how meaningless W-L records, for SP's, really is. Harrison another of the many erratic pitchers going Sat, but he was great at Philly in his last. kc 2-4 @L, Tex 10-9 home to R. Neither club's O smoking, lately, though Tex might come back with the key sticks returning while kc totally prefers Kauffman. Price is insane, Fri, and will close to that hurt again. Runline, maybe, if wind, ump and alcohol permit.

7 laa(Weaver)@Min(Liriano-L)
If the season was only 1 month then I guess that Jeff woulda bagged the Cy...geez...fallin' on hard times but he was quite good in last--vs a's, mind you--despite getting a no-decision in the eventual Angels win. He's 4-2 vs, in 8, with other numbers vs decent. Liriano 0-3 in 3 home starts with a 14.73 era and a .340 baa. No misprint. 3 of his last 4 have been good--including the no-no--but risking money on him and/or the Twins is something best left to pass the time while bored in purgatory. laa 4-8 @L (9-9 vs L overall but it seems like that's all they've been facing this month, and their team OPS vs L has gone from well over .800 to, now, .708); Min 3-7 home to R. Minny's actually been the more productive team, lately, as laa's O is looking more like what I expected from the get-go...pathetic. angels are decent dogs for Fri but won't be Sat. Hard to predict; Liriano might get some respect but so will Weaver...Twins, in general, don't seem to deserve much but who knows. -115 to -125, maybe? That would be about the most I'd be willing to risk on Weaver and company. laa BP better, by-the-by.


kicking around on a piece of ground in your hometown

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

7 bost(Buchholz)@Det(A.Oliver-L)
Clay has been better lately, including a solid go vs same Tigers. Oliver's been so-so at AAA but blew chunks in a short go last year, in the majors. Bosox smoking, lately, and prefer L at the plate. Also have the BP edge and I'd say that Oliver's chances of going deep are slimmer than those of Bush and Cheney being persectued for war crimes. bost 2-4 @L (9-7 overall), Det 8-6 home to R (13-19 overall). bost 7-day OPS at an mlb-high of .877 while scoring almost 7 per game, Det 7-day at .701 while scoring 3.5 per game. Any chance of a good price? Seems unlikely. runline or something...looks better than Melinda Mays. (Early '80s Playboy reference, if that rings a ball)

10 balt(Bergesen)@Oak(Outman-L)
can't touch this

10 nyy(Nova)@Seat(Felix)
Felix has done good work vs and has been mostly very good lately while Nova is yet another totally inconsitent SP. Big edge nyy bats. Need to see Fri's before even considering this one, and no doubt the yanks will see dog money again. There should be a law against Yanks not being favoured, shouldn't there be?
Totally need to see Friday's.


waiting for someone or something to show you the way

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That's my first song repeat, for BB threads this season.
Can't be helped...it's me whatchamacallit.