wondo....ive done alot of research involving college teams off upset wins and losses....these situations are not as predictible as most cappers think.....mostly everyone feels that a team off a big upset win is DUE for a letdown.....and conversely teams off an upset loss are DUE to bounce back.....the numbers say that these opinions are not always true.
for example ole miss is off a home outright win as 11-14 pt dog...teams in this exact same situation who have been home favs. of 15+ pts in next game have gone 10-3 ats last 8-yrs.
so u see most expect a letdown, but in fact opposite is true....im not saying all upset winners are teams to bet on, but there is certain spots when they do well in next game....just as there is certain situations they are in a letdown or go-against spot.
ive broken these upset wins/losses into numerous different catergories so as to cover all the different angles....so like i said there are different results depending upon amount of line....home/away in prevuos game/next game....etc.
what most cappers are forgetting is that ark.st is also off an upset win in last game....they beat m.tenn.st at home as a 15 pt dog...teams in this spot who have been a road dog of 15+ pts. in next game have gone 3-7 overall....so u see ark.st is the team to go-against following this trend.
plus we have the added bonus that just about every capper is on ark.st today and there has been no real significant line movement....game opened at 29 went to as far as 27.5 now at 28 to 28.5....i feel alot stronger when i see everyone on 1-side and line doesnt move much....
plus arkst. is just plain bad....theyve played 2-teams from major conferences.....vatech and illinois.....tech put 63 on them and illinois put up 59......sanjose the next best team theyve played scored 33 on them....all other games have been against very weak teams....
pretty much same scenario regarding houston play....uab off an upset win 2-weeks ago....they are in a 1-6 last 8-yrs. go-against spot this week....plus added bonus off everyone on uab....not much line movement....
everyone has their own way off handicapping....and in every game a case can be made to play either side....these are some of the angles i use....sometimes they work and sometimes they dont.....but they do serve a purpose....they do keep me from losing my ass. like i used to for yrs. and yrs. when i was playin my gut-feel plays...again all my posted plays have some numbers to back them up....i dont just throw plays out there for the hell of it.
gluck with ure plays, burgh.
