Sat Oct 9

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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Dallas, TX
I'll update my record later, I don't know if I can add high enough to total the losses.


TTech and Baylor over 62 7units

Game of the, nah not saying it but this the biggest play for me in a very long time. I have several reasons for liking this. One is the Tech defense has no clue what they're identity is yet. They don't know if they want to sit back and keep everything in front of them or if they want to man up and blitz. There's not just one or two of the defensive guys are making mistakes it's at least half of the defense. Against Baylor they will pay for this and I expect them to be totally lost with Griffin being able to run so well and so far this year passing very good. His yards per pass attempt are almost at 9 so we know Tech will have to cover a large part of the field which should open up some running for Griffin. I don't see anyway Baylor doesn't hang at least 30+ on Tech. The question is wheter or not Tech can score at least 30. I think last week, although it was a very bad outcome, is a good indication that Tech's offense may have found itself. After getting down 24-0 Tech came back to tie the game. They ended up scoring 38 points in the last 3 quarters and the one thing that changed was that Potts started passing the ball down the field. One of Potts biggest problems is that he doesn't stretch the field. The defense ends up not having to cover much of the field because they know he's passing it short. In part of the 2nd quarter and all of the 2nd half this changed. He started going vertical with the ball more and it opened up the short game as well. Up until that point Tech had really struggled to find their identity with the new Brown offense but IMO that changed and we should see some big numbers put up the rest of the way.

I think we're catching the man in a good spot here and this might be the last time you see a Tech o/u this low.
 

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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11-11 -4.95 units for the year

Texas under really cost me last week but I would take it again if the game was this week. I always go back and look at the games after they happen. Sometimes I win, look back and realize I got lucky and the bet was still bad. Sometimes I lose, look back and still know that the bet was a good one.

I'll be on the plus side after this week for sure.
 

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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Stanford -9.5 1unit


Back home, very angry and more talented.


SC is giving up almost 9 yards per pass attempt, not the QB you want to be playing with a defense like that.
 

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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Michigan -4 2units


Mich States first true road game(the one that was not at home was Ford field which is more of a home game for them than the other team). I think they keep the game close in the first half but struggle to keep up with Mich's offense. I can't see them stopping Robinson.

I might bump this game up 1 or 2 more units. Trying to see if I play anything else this week first. I don't want to have too much exposed.
 

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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Bama -7 1 unit


They're just too talented right now. Hopefully last week will slingshot them on a good run and not be a let down this week. SCs offense just isn't dynamic enough to keep this close. If last weeks game would have been closer then it may have scared me away but Bama was able to cruise in the 2nd half last week while SC was trying to win the game still.

The stats are the best backer for me taking Bama here but if you look at who they got their stats against vs who SC got theirs against then it makes more sense.
 

atmswim

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I like your plays this week Rob except the Aggies...haha! First the game is not at home...it is at Cowboy Stadium so I expect just as many hog fans as aggies. Second our secondary is still very young and I see Mallet going crazy. Third and most important Johnson is still not 100%. He had surgery this off season and it is apparent that he is not confident with is throws which is evident with 8 interceptions and 2 fumbles the past 2 games. i am sure he will have one or two interceptions this week which is way to many for this team.

Also, I really like Michigan and Florida this week.
 

layinwood

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Aug 29, 2001
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Scott, I'm still not sure I said it was at home for them. I've been talking all week about how crazy Arlington is going to be with that game there and the Rangers next door. Sounded good at the time I guess.

:toast:
 
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