YTD RECORD: 43-27 (+15.52 UNITS)
Down a few units this week, but will get them back. Keep in mind, it's a long season. I went with 3 plays for Saturday:
MILWAUKEE +115 (OBERMUELLER VS WILSON LISTED)
WASHINGTON -121 (DAY VS ZAMBRANO LISTED)
BOSTON -106 (ARROYO VS ASTACIO LISTED)
A few comments on the Washington play:
I think some of the most difficult games to handicap are games where the starting pitcher has just faced the same team in his previous start and that is the case with Victor Zambrano vs Washington. Usually you can almost throw all the batter/pitcher matchups completely out because of the adjustment factor by the pitcher/hitters and that's why many times you'll see completely opposite results in both the sides and over/under on these games. I do, however, feel there are exceptions to this situation.
Zambrano of course got rocked by this Washington team in his last start and I do expect him to be better than that performance, but I still think Washington gets to him again. Zambrano hasn't been very good all season and until he shows some kind of decent pitching form or a couple good back to back pitching performances, I think the pitcher adjustment factors get somewhat thrown out the window. Zambrano has allowed 31 hits in just 22.1 innings this season and has also shown "his" normal high walk pattern having allowed a total of 14 walks in those 22.1 innings and has walked at least 3 batters in each start he has made this season.
Zach Day has also had problems with his control, but from what I've been reading, he's been getting some confidence back after his short demotion to the bullpen and there's nothing like boosting that confidence even more by facing a team that he's had huge success vs in the past and that is in the middle of a losing skid. Day has made 7 career starts vs the Mets which is more than any other team except for Atlanta which he also has 7 career starts and in those 7 starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA.
Day is also a big ground baller....he has that heavy sinker and tends to get a lot of ground ball outs and routine double play balls and there is nothing better in killing a rally than grounding into a double play, so his style can only help in this game. In case you are wondering, the Mets are 2nd in the National League in hitting into double plays.
Mets have struggled on the Road going just 3-8 for the season and are in the midst of a 3 game losing streak.....SOON TO BE 4 GAME LOSING STREAK! At least I hope.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
Down a few units this week, but will get them back. Keep in mind, it's a long season. I went with 3 plays for Saturday:
MILWAUKEE +115 (OBERMUELLER VS WILSON LISTED)
WASHINGTON -121 (DAY VS ZAMBRANO LISTED)
BOSTON -106 (ARROYO VS ASTACIO LISTED)
A few comments on the Washington play:
I think some of the most difficult games to handicap are games where the starting pitcher has just faced the same team in his previous start and that is the case with Victor Zambrano vs Washington. Usually you can almost throw all the batter/pitcher matchups completely out because of the adjustment factor by the pitcher/hitters and that's why many times you'll see completely opposite results in both the sides and over/under on these games. I do, however, feel there are exceptions to this situation.
Zambrano of course got rocked by this Washington team in his last start and I do expect him to be better than that performance, but I still think Washington gets to him again. Zambrano hasn't been very good all season and until he shows some kind of decent pitching form or a couple good back to back pitching performances, I think the pitcher adjustment factors get somewhat thrown out the window. Zambrano has allowed 31 hits in just 22.1 innings this season and has also shown "his" normal high walk pattern having allowed a total of 14 walks in those 22.1 innings and has walked at least 3 batters in each start he has made this season.
Zach Day has also had problems with his control, but from what I've been reading, he's been getting some confidence back after his short demotion to the bullpen and there's nothing like boosting that confidence even more by facing a team that he's had huge success vs in the past and that is in the middle of a losing skid. Day has made 7 career starts vs the Mets which is more than any other team except for Atlanta which he also has 7 career starts and in those 7 starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA.
Day is also a big ground baller....he has that heavy sinker and tends to get a lot of ground ball outs and routine double play balls and there is nothing better in killing a rally than grounding into a double play, so his style can only help in this game. In case you are wondering, the Mets are 2nd in the National League in hitting into double plays.
Mets have struggled on the Road going just 3-8 for the season and are in the midst of a 3 game losing streak.....SOON TO BE 4 GAME LOSING STREAK! At least I hope.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
