NRL/Super 12 Saturday (Down Under time) picks
Just one play, but it's also this weekend's NRL BEST BET.
NRL Rd 3 Saturday matches:
Season to Date: 3-4.
Game 2) The Shark v Canberra Raiders, Toyota Pk, Cronulla, 16:00CST.
Sharks -5.5 ($1.90Aus); Raiders +5.5
Both teams come in to this match 1-1, with the victory for each team being on the road. Sharks may eke out a home win here but I'm leaving the spread and playing our first total points line wager for the season instead. Centrebet offer a 40.5 points under/over line ($1.85Aus) and rather than move the line, adjust the return eg. the over in the Cowboys/Roosters game is a miserly $1.55. Because I'm used to betting on NZ/Aus sport with 15% juice, I'm happy to play this but other may skip it because of the extra vig. Anyhow, why the under? Canberra have a total of 78 combined points in their 2 matches, the Sharks a league-low 61. Sharks will attempt to dominate with their forward park, so don't expect an expansive game, especially being a day game in the Sydney March heat. And neither side has a wealth of gamebreakers. If you have a book that offers $1.90 on under/over, play the under @ 37.5 or higher.
PLAY UNDER 40.5; BEST BET
Game 3) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm; WIN Stadium, Wollongong, 18:00CST.
Dragons -8.5 ($1.95Aus); Storm +8.5 ($1.85)
Storm have lost their first two SU at home and ATS. The Dragons thumped the Sharks first-up 30-6 and then were beaten by Wests Tiger. The Storm must get better soon - they have too many good players not too. Just don't know when. And who knows which Dragons team will show up. A big pass.
NO PLAY
Game 4) Nth Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters, Townsville, 20:00CST.
Cowboys +6.5 ($1.85Aus); Roosters -6.5 ($1.95)
Cowboys have been one of the surprise sides to date, almost beating the Broncos at home and then beating the Storm away 32-28. Tempted to back them getting points at home in sultry Queensland against a Roosters side which constantly coughed up possession in their home loss versus Newcastle last weekend but the Roosters match up so-much better man-for-man they should win this one.
NO PLAY
Super 12 Week 2:
Season to Date: 2-0; BEST BET - 1-0.
Game 2) Hurricanes v Bulls, Wellington, 14:05CST.
Hurricanes -22.5; Bulls +22.5.
A lot of wood, although the 'Canes have the capabilities to cover. Superstar wing Jonah Lomu is back from injury, giving the home team the most-feared back trio of Lomu, Christian Cullen and Tama Umaga - with Umaga at centre. The Bulls have never won a match in NZ and started the 2001 Super 12 unconvincingly with a 30-17 loss to the Sharks. New coach Phil Pretorius has a young side and has talked abut the need for them to play adventurous rugby. Could be a points-fest and the Canes could run up 50 with their ability, but I'm wary of their lack of discipline - which cost them dearly in their opening loss to the Queensland Reds - and the chance of a back-door cover if players are flinging the ball all over the park in the latter stages.
NO PLAY
Game 3) Chiefs v Queensland Reds, Rotorua, 16:05CST
Chiefs +2.5, Reds -2.5
Chiefs were awful in their opening 42-23 loss to NSW Waratahs, proving pre-season form is no indicator. The Reds were perfunctory in a 27-18 win over the 'Canes but don't seem to have much flair. They are without inspirational lock and skipper John Eales (injured heel) for tonight's match but Nathan Sharpe should prove a capable replacement. Chiefs coach John Mitchell was distraught at the mystifying refereeing decisions from last weekend over the tackled ball rules, saying all the technical and tactical work they did pre-season was "a waste of time." Chiefs have worked on rectifying those problems and should be better for the outing, but not convinced on either team at this stage.
NO PLAY
Will post preview/picks on the 2 games in South Africa Sun morning (SA time) in approx 6 hours (Sharks v Brumbies and Cats v Highlanders). At this stage, will play the Cats @ -6.5.
GLTA
Just one play, but it's also this weekend's NRL BEST BET.
NRL Rd 3 Saturday matches:
Season to Date: 3-4.
Game 2) The Shark v Canberra Raiders, Toyota Pk, Cronulla, 16:00CST.
Sharks -5.5 ($1.90Aus); Raiders +5.5
Both teams come in to this match 1-1, with the victory for each team being on the road. Sharks may eke out a home win here but I'm leaving the spread and playing our first total points line wager for the season instead. Centrebet offer a 40.5 points under/over line ($1.85Aus) and rather than move the line, adjust the return eg. the over in the Cowboys/Roosters game is a miserly $1.55. Because I'm used to betting on NZ/Aus sport with 15% juice, I'm happy to play this but other may skip it because of the extra vig. Anyhow, why the under? Canberra have a total of 78 combined points in their 2 matches, the Sharks a league-low 61. Sharks will attempt to dominate with their forward park, so don't expect an expansive game, especially being a day game in the Sydney March heat. And neither side has a wealth of gamebreakers. If you have a book that offers $1.90 on under/over, play the under @ 37.5 or higher.
PLAY UNDER 40.5; BEST BET
Game 3) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm; WIN Stadium, Wollongong, 18:00CST.
Dragons -8.5 ($1.95Aus); Storm +8.5 ($1.85)
Storm have lost their first two SU at home and ATS. The Dragons thumped the Sharks first-up 30-6 and then were beaten by Wests Tiger. The Storm must get better soon - they have too many good players not too. Just don't know when. And who knows which Dragons team will show up. A big pass.
NO PLAY
Game 4) Nth Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters, Townsville, 20:00CST.
Cowboys +6.5 ($1.85Aus); Roosters -6.5 ($1.95)
Cowboys have been one of the surprise sides to date, almost beating the Broncos at home and then beating the Storm away 32-28. Tempted to back them getting points at home in sultry Queensland against a Roosters side which constantly coughed up possession in their home loss versus Newcastle last weekend but the Roosters match up so-much better man-for-man they should win this one.
NO PLAY
Super 12 Week 2:
Season to Date: 2-0; BEST BET - 1-0.
Game 2) Hurricanes v Bulls, Wellington, 14:05CST.
Hurricanes -22.5; Bulls +22.5.
A lot of wood, although the 'Canes have the capabilities to cover. Superstar wing Jonah Lomu is back from injury, giving the home team the most-feared back trio of Lomu, Christian Cullen and Tama Umaga - with Umaga at centre. The Bulls have never won a match in NZ and started the 2001 Super 12 unconvincingly with a 30-17 loss to the Sharks. New coach Phil Pretorius has a young side and has talked abut the need for them to play adventurous rugby. Could be a points-fest and the Canes could run up 50 with their ability, but I'm wary of their lack of discipline - which cost them dearly in their opening loss to the Queensland Reds - and the chance of a back-door cover if players are flinging the ball all over the park in the latter stages.
NO PLAY
Game 3) Chiefs v Queensland Reds, Rotorua, 16:05CST
Chiefs +2.5, Reds -2.5
Chiefs were awful in their opening 42-23 loss to NSW Waratahs, proving pre-season form is no indicator. The Reds were perfunctory in a 27-18 win over the 'Canes but don't seem to have much flair. They are without inspirational lock and skipper John Eales (injured heel) for tonight's match but Nathan Sharpe should prove a capable replacement. Chiefs coach John Mitchell was distraught at the mystifying refereeing decisions from last weekend over the tackled ball rules, saying all the technical and tactical work they did pre-season was "a waste of time." Chiefs have worked on rectifying those problems and should be better for the outing, but not convinced on either team at this stage.
NO PLAY
Will post preview/picks on the 2 games in South Africa Sun morning (SA time) in approx 6 hours (Sharks v Brumbies and Cats v Highlanders). At this stage, will play the Cats @ -6.5.
GLTA
