Saturday: Hofstra +10.5

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superbook

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Poor night tonite, I was on the right side of the Ivy game initially but overthought it.

I'm riding Hofstra until they disappoint me. I also put a nice chunk on the ML +450 on this one.

Drexel and Hofstra have just beaten a common opponent (W&M) by almost identical margins (66-51 and 67-51).

Since the return of Apodaca and Gibson two games ago, Hofstra's FG% has increased from 39.6% to 49.5%.

Apodaca didn't have a great game vs W&M, getting a lot of open looks but hitting just 5-14, but he hit a couple of key shots from the arc down the stretch, proving he is the go-to guy on this team.

Gibson has battled foul trouble in his 2 games back but has still managed to pull down an average of 5.5 rpg while scoring 4ppg.

The return of Apodaca has also taken some of the burden off of Adeleke (16.9 ppg and 11.4 rpg) and made him even more effective inside.

Drexel plays a four guard O with the best center in the CAA, 6-8 Robert Battle in the middle.

Drexel shoots well over 50% from the field, and they're coming off a big OT win at Delaware where they snapped the Hens 47 game win streak at home (when they scored 70+ points). That game was Thursday night and might make Drexel a little tired down the stretch tomorrow -- most of the starters played 35+ minutes, including Battle who played 36.

If Gibson can keep Battle somewhat in check, IMO Hofstra has a chance to steal this game, as Drexel's 4 guard O has no one who matches up with 6-8 220 Adeleke: Schmieder is 6-3, Goss is 6-1.

Drexel is 5-2 in conference play, Hostra is 3-4. Hofstra needs a win to get them to 4-4 and back in the hunt. This game is being broadcast in NY on MSG, and I'm sure that Hofstra will want to put on a good show for their fans back home.

I feel very confident they'll be within ten.

gl

- Jon
 
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tony steams

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Glad to see you on it Superbook, as i've got it as well. What do you think about St. John's -1.5 against Virginia Tech? I'm liking St. alot. VT had that huge upset at home against Virginia.

GL
 
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superbook

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No idea why the line moved up.

Seemed to go right from 10.5 to 12 at the open (11:15AM) this morning and hasn't done much since.

Obviously this isn't what I expected but I still feel confident that Hofstra is the right side.

I added another unit at +12 and a unit on the ML at +550.

Maybe someone knows something, but if there were any big news I think we would have heard about it by now (since the big line move was this morning).

gl

- Jon
 

superbook

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Hack -- guess I was writing my post at the same time you were. I tend to agree with you and maybe I don't know anything about line movement but I thought usually the big syndicates banged the line closer to gametime not first thing in the morning.

Keep an eye on this line; if it moves back to 10.5 about 45 minutes before gametime we'll know for sure we're on the right side.

- Jon
 
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hyperion

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Jon-

I saw this game the same way you did.

Looks like we got prison raped in the first half.

moon1
 
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doubleon11

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OMG...............whats happening this was my biggest play of the year went big at +10.5 this am and big again at+12.......anybody know what is going on with HOF??????????:(
 

superbook

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Guys I don't know what to say on that one. Hofstra proved they can play in the 2H, just a disastorous 1H.

I wasn't as lucky as you guys I had 50% at +10.5 and 50% at +12 and a decent amount on the ML. But I hit every other game on my card including the Over on that game.

The push got me to about even on the day.

Sorry about the bum steer. Still think Hofstra is worth a ride for awhile. I need to get more details on what happend in that 1H.

Sorry.

- Jon
 
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hyperion

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Bum Steer?? NO Way!!!!

Many folks got the game at 12 to 12.5. Thank you for the tip!!
 

Brenda-BucsFan

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Jon,
Think some of us just got lucky enough to read your post a little late.
Thanks for the play , Keep up the great work and keep them winners coming.
 
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