3-0 last night
Saturday
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1)12:15 PM EST.....Michigan(+4)
Yes, Illinois is a gaudy 19-5 S/U YTD, but they are only 4-5 S/U on the road and just 3-4-1 ATS away. Michigan is 16-10 YTD, 12-4 S/U at home and a very good 9-5 ATS at home. The Wolverines are also 3-1 ATS in the 4 vs Illinois.
The raw stats in this one favour the Illini as you would expect, but when we look at Illinois's road numbers compared to Michigan's home numbers, the stats become pretty much a saw-off..........making the home underdog look pretty inviting.
This one just has that Big ten upset smell all around it.
2)2:30 PM EST.....Purdue(+6.5)
Back to the Big Ten for my second play as well.
Purdue is scuffling a little bit lately, losing 4/6, but Michigan State isn't tearing things up either, losing 3/5 overall, going 1-3 ATS in their last 4, and 3-6 ATS in their last 9.
The key stats are pretty much even, and I look for yet another MSU home game to go to the wire today. I'll gladly take the generous 6.5 points
3)4:00 PM EST....Rutgers(+6)
Notre Dame is 21-6 YTD, but just 5-4 on the road. Rutgers is only 11-14 YTD, but a not bad 9-6 S/U at home. Rutgers is also 3-1 both S/U and ATS in the last 4 vs the Irish. Hmmmmmmmmm.
When we look at Notre Dame's road stats compared to Rutgers home numbers, we see that the Irish have small advantages in offensive FG% 40.8% to 38.9% and free throws 75.7% to 66.2% (but home teams usually get more "calls" so this last number is less relevant when the visitor has a statistical advantage). But, Rutgers has a huge advantage in the all important defensive field goal percentage category at 41.4% to 45.1%.
The stats are there for the upset, the home/road records of both teams leave the door wide open, and the 6 points is enough for me.
4)7:00 PM EST.........Stanford(+6)
Wow, what a game this one is going to be!!
The key stats all are very close or slightly favour Arizona. Not much advantage one way or the other there, but the Cardinal do match Arizona in DFG% at 40.6%, and they give up just 62.1 points/gm at home.
The angle I like best about this one, is that this is the 3rd straight road game for the Wildcats and 5/7 on the road for them.........quite a test for this late in the year. I think they are perfectly set up for an upset in this one, and besides let's face it, Stanford is a very good team.....14-2 S/U at home and getting 6 points. I'll bite.
5)9:00 PM EST....UAB(+14.5)
After their big road win on Thursday night at Louisville as a 7 pt dog, this could be a flat spot for Marquette as a DD home favourite.
And besides, UAB is actually a pretty good squad at 16-8 S/U YTD and 6-3 ATS on the road. They have won their last 3 and are 4-1 in their last 5, both S/U and ATS. I'll gladly take the 14.5 points.
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
Saturday
--------------------------
1)12:15 PM EST.....Michigan(+4)
Yes, Illinois is a gaudy 19-5 S/U YTD, but they are only 4-5 S/U on the road and just 3-4-1 ATS away. Michigan is 16-10 YTD, 12-4 S/U at home and a very good 9-5 ATS at home. The Wolverines are also 3-1 ATS in the 4 vs Illinois.
The raw stats in this one favour the Illini as you would expect, but when we look at Illinois's road numbers compared to Michigan's home numbers, the stats become pretty much a saw-off..........making the home underdog look pretty inviting.
This one just has that Big ten upset smell all around it.
2)2:30 PM EST.....Purdue(+6.5)
Back to the Big Ten for my second play as well.
Purdue is scuffling a little bit lately, losing 4/6, but Michigan State isn't tearing things up either, losing 3/5 overall, going 1-3 ATS in their last 4, and 3-6 ATS in their last 9.
The key stats are pretty much even, and I look for yet another MSU home game to go to the wire today. I'll gladly take the generous 6.5 points
3)4:00 PM EST....Rutgers(+6)
Notre Dame is 21-6 YTD, but just 5-4 on the road. Rutgers is only 11-14 YTD, but a not bad 9-6 S/U at home. Rutgers is also 3-1 both S/U and ATS in the last 4 vs the Irish. Hmmmmmmmmm.
When we look at Notre Dame's road stats compared to Rutgers home numbers, we see that the Irish have small advantages in offensive FG% 40.8% to 38.9% and free throws 75.7% to 66.2% (but home teams usually get more "calls" so this last number is less relevant when the visitor has a statistical advantage). But, Rutgers has a huge advantage in the all important defensive field goal percentage category at 41.4% to 45.1%.
The stats are there for the upset, the home/road records of both teams leave the door wide open, and the 6 points is enough for me.
4)7:00 PM EST.........Stanford(+6)
Wow, what a game this one is going to be!!
The key stats all are very close or slightly favour Arizona. Not much advantage one way or the other there, but the Cardinal do match Arizona in DFG% at 40.6%, and they give up just 62.1 points/gm at home.
The angle I like best about this one, is that this is the 3rd straight road game for the Wildcats and 5/7 on the road for them.........quite a test for this late in the year. I think they are perfectly set up for an upset in this one, and besides let's face it, Stanford is a very good team.....14-2 S/U at home and getting 6 points. I'll bite.
5)9:00 PM EST....UAB(+14.5)
After their big road win on Thursday night at Louisville as a 7 pt dog, this could be a flat spot for Marquette as a DD home favourite.
And besides, UAB is actually a pretty good squad at 16-8 S/U YTD and 6-3 ATS on the road. They have won their last 3 and are 4-1 in their last 5, both S/U and ATS. I'll gladly take the 14.5 points.
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
