Saturday Jan 12

[Toledo Prophet]

Big day in hoops. Great games everyone. Lot of heavy chalk on the noon tips, so I just sat back and watched.

YTD: 43-43-1......great start to the season, but slumping in recent weeks eventually knocked me back down to the .500 mark. Lets start the winning road this afternoon!

UK pick over Vandy. Well all signs point to a Vandy win and continued down times for UK. Vandy has won four in a row and two straight in Lexington over the Cars after all. But, after sleeping on it a night and pondering it this morning, I had a change of heart. Based on how these teams have played, shouldn't Vandy have been a decent favorite today, like 4 or 5 points. Think this game is a trap, and I am fading the public here and taking the heretofore woeful Cats to get their first big win of the season and maybe, just maybe, turn this season around. They will ugly this game up and sneak out a victory.

 

[Houseman]

I feel you. I am all over Vandy, placed it last night, now I am scratching my head. I still have to go with whats on paper. Vandy by 4. GL to ya.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

PSU ML, -130 over Minnesota......these two teams suddenly find themselves at the forefront of possible at-large discussion for the NCAA tournament, so this is actually a pretty intriguing game in the Big 10 today. I favor the home Nittany Lions, and for several reasons. The Lions are 5-1-1 ATS at home in their last 7 and are on a 11-2-1 ATS run as favorites. Minny meanwhile struggles on the road, logging only a 4-20 SU mark in their last 24 true road contests. Both teams come in playiing great defense, although statistically the Gophers do bring in the better offense. But, their road numbers in four attempts this year are significantly worse than their overall numbers. Consider, Minny shots 37% from the field on the road, as opposed to 46.5% overall; 30% from behind the arc on the road, compared to 38.5% in all games, and scores just 63 a game on the road, compared to their season average of 75.4. They are 1-3 SU on the road this year, winning their opener vs Iowa State and since losing at Florida State, UNLV and Mich. St. Penn State carries similar to better defensive numbers than those clubs and allows just 62 ppg. I expect Minnys road struggles to continue this afternoon. Also in watching PSU play recently, they have been monsters on the boards, destroyiing both NW and the Illinni in road games on the glass, and they won both of those games with their top scorer Geary Claxton not really playing well. In their Big 10 home opener, I think they get a big win solidfying their early season placement in the league's top half.

Notre Dame +6.5 over Marquette. From a purely technical handicapping standpoint, the Irish are one the better road bets out there. We're on the them today. ND is 26-11-1 ATS on the road, on a 36-15-1 ATS run as road dogs and are 13-3-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 7 points. They will keep this game close throughout agaisnt Marquette who has been sluggish in their last two games, a loss at WVA and a last minute home win over the Hall. I think ND's inside-outside action will be tough for the Eagles to handle. I just dont think Marquette can match up inside with ND, especially Harangoddy. I hate going aginst Dom James, as he's one of my favorite players in the college game. But, he enters today with a sparined shooting wrist, so that might hinder Marquette's offense a bit and you need to hitting on all cylinders against an ND team that can fill it up. Think Marquette might pull out the win, but i figure we'll see lead changes all the way through the final minute of this one. A pair of 12-2 Big East teams, should be an excellent game.

 

[escarzamd]

:0corn GL......coming w/ on PSU!!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

I feel you. I am all over Vandy, placed it last night, now I am scratching my head. I still have to go with whats on paper. Vandy by 4. GL to ya.

It'll be interesting to see if UK can maintain this play.....they have not put a full 40 minutes together yet all year.....last week, Vandy was down DD in the second half vs Umass and then hit the gas the final 10 minutes of the game and covered -7.....this game is far from over, and at least one of us will win!! I need to check into your SEC thread more often, as i do not know this leasgue that will in hoops.

What do you make of Florida? Coming together for sure and they might be the third best team in the league behind Tenn and Vandy. Feel like they're headed towards an 8-9 game in the NCAAs, buy if they keep gelling like this, who knows, they could move up and even get into the rankings. Very impressed w/ them the last two games.

 

[Houseman]

Yeah, 10 at the half, I think KY will slowly fade back. But they could easily pull it out. That would be a great win.

I see FL coming together. You can tell they are a young team by the mistakes they make. But they have the best coach in the SEC. They will make a run. I see them equal to Mississippi. Watch out for Miss St. They have solid D.

What conf. is your best? I follow SEC and Big 10 but not so comfortable outside those conf. Any help would be appreciated.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Houseman, I really dont have a specialty conference......when I see how successful someone like our fellow capper/poster Hawkeye is with OVC and So Con, I tell myself thats something I should try and do, but there's not a league I really enjoy following more than others. Since the Big 10 is local, and the MAC and Horizon, I am a bit more in tune with those squads. Same with the MVC, but I have no clue whats up with that league this year. Usually as the league seasons progresses, a league or two will just stand out that I seem to have a feel for more than others. Last year, as an example, I was 'on' with the big 12. Dont know how or why, but I won a lot on league games all the way through the conference tourney.....hopefully I will find a hot conference this season as well.

 

[Houseman]

Yeah, I can see me getting into the Big 12 this year. We will see how the UCLA game fares today. Good Luck. Btw- i check your picks daily. Thanks for posting.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, watching UK and PSU choke on side by side TV screens here.....it is surely a sight to see as both were up comfortably by double digits half way through the second half....with ND packing it in for the second half, i need both UK and PSU to salvage a 2-1 start......UK keeps missing FTs......this is how the last few weeks have gone for me on the college hardwood.....hopefully my luck will turn and these guys can pull it out.

The only positive has been I love the way Gus Johnson calls a game and he has been properly lathered up during Vandy's comeback.....so thats been fun.

Anyway nothing for the rest of the afternoon.....I might have some plays for the evening tips.

 

[Cie]

Well, watching UK and PSU choke on side by side TV screens here.....

Side by side screens:00hour I am about to head to a local watering hole so I an catch hoops and NFL simultaneously.

Is Penn St killing you at the ft line, or what:00x25
I'll check in later for your evening slate. GL

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Nice job on KY TP. They made it interesting but got it done! :00hour

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks Glenn, it was a close one. Like you, I figured Vandy was going to roll once they snuck it into OT.

Cie, gotta love the side by side TVs......I actually have three going here in the TV room. Its a must for us gamblers, right!?!?! So, PSU killed me at the stripe? Well only if you consider killing me as missing more, 19, than making, 17, missing 7 of 8 in the final two+ minutes and going 0-3 in the final minute when the score was tied at 73. Brutal!!!

:banghead: :cuss:

Anyway, hope you have/had fun at the pub.....not sure what I'll be on tonight, but I am liking Cincy, so we might be riding the same bandwagon there!!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Lets see if I can at least win some cash tonight:

FSU +10 over Clemson......Its been a rough week for Clemson, what with losing a heartbreaker to Carolina at the buzzer and then sleepwaling through a loss to Charlotte. They could very well get on the winning track tonight, but I dont expect them to be able to get it done tonight by double digits. I like FSU's defense and they'll have just as many playmakers on the floor tonight tonight as will the Tigers. Clemson is just 7-11 ATS as an ACC home favorite, and FSU has always been a pretty good investment as an underdog in league play. Whats FSU's speciality? Well, its playing close games, down to the wire, only to lose in the end. They've lost more than a dozen games since the beginning of last season on the game's final possession. If the same fate befalls them tonight, at least they'll be cashing a point spread winner.

Cincy +3 over Nova. I was not impressed with Nova last Sunday. Sure, they got a win over Pitt, but the Panthers were depleted by injury. The Bearcats, meanwhile, have covered 7 of 8 games in the last month of play, all as underdogs. They handled the high powered Syracuse attack on Wednesday and got the SU win as a dog at home. Despite their ranking, I feel the Orange are a better team with more weapons than Nova, so there's no reason to think Cincy cant defend their home court tonight and notch another win. These two clubs met two years ago on this court, with Nova squeeking out a 2-point win. That was a much better Wildcat team and a worse Bearcat team. Good chance we'll see the upset tonight, but I'll grab the three points.

Wright St -4 over Cleveland State. The Vikings have been a nice story thus far in the early going of the Horizon season, but I feel they're over their heads a bit tonight going into the Nutter Center, where the Raiders have one of the best home court edges in the country. WSU is 35-16-1 ATS at home and are on a 8-3-1 run as a home favorite. They're also 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 Horizon League games. CSU has struggled when traveling south to play their in-state rival, logging just a 1-6-1 ATS mark at Nutter. Last season, WSU backers had to lay 13 in this game at home (it ended a push) and the last five games between these teams at WSU saw the average spread being over -9.5. Think we're seeing some value here due to CSU's surprising start, and expect WSU to tuck this game away beyond the 4-point spread tonight.

Good luck tonight!!!!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, i equaled my 1-2 day with a 1-2 night.

Florida State. WTF. Catching ten points and I lose the cover in double OT! Clemmie had to hit shots at the end of regulation and the first OT just to stay alive. Brutal.

Now, i survived UK earlier today in 2OT, but that is the sixth game in the last month that a comfy cover that I had allegedly sewn up only see my underdog just get swamped in OT.

That and Penn St's sucktitude on the free throw line cost me.

A 2-4 day, and the slump continues. I feel the Cubs amid a June Swoon!

:banghead:

Oh well, tomorrow's another day!

 

[Houseman]

How did we have opposite picks and the same record? Tough day for me. Annie said it best!!

 

[escarzamd]

WTF............I can say w/o HYPERBOLE that NOBODY in the state of PN can shoot a 15-freaking-footer..........if i had tear ducts, i would cry.:mj07: :mj07:

think jimmy v, tp.......you can cap.........i however, cannot. but i am willing to learn:142smilie

peace.................d:SIB c

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks Doc......its a long season still, so there's plenty of time for a nice winning streak or two.

After watching PSU free throw shooting, sometimes I think we should stick to rock and roll critiques and breakdowns than sports capping! :mj07: